Estimation of changes in design precipitation at ungauged locations using a geostatistical model of regional frequency analysis with climate projections
The study quantifies changes in the 100-year design quantile of short-duration precipitation at ungauged locations in the Czech Republic and analyses the uncertainty structure of these estimates under climate change conditions. Reference IDF curves were derived using regional frequency analysis based on the index-flood concept, employing the GEV distribution with parameter estimation using the method of L-moments. Future changes were determined from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX regional climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for the periods 2035–2065 and 2070–2100.