Simulation of the thermal regime of a drinking water reservoir under projected climate change conditions
The potential impact on the thermal regime was assessed using Vrchlice Reservoir as a case study. The model was calibrated for 2023 using detailed measurements of vertical water temperature profiles at selected monitoring sites provided by the Elbe River Water Authority; subse-quent verification was carried out for 2022. To compare the affected thermal regime with the current state, 2018 was selected as the reference year. The observed daily air temperature series for 2018 was transformed using the Advanced Delta Change (ADC) method to reflect changes derived from climate models for the 2050 and 2085 horizons. The scenario calculations presented in this article isolate the effect of changes in air temperature, while other meteorological and hydrological-operational inputs are kept at their 2018 reference levels.