{"id":831,"date":"2015-09-03T14:07:54","date_gmt":"2015-09-03T14:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=831"},"modified":"2024-07-16T10:06:55","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T09:06:55","slug":"hydrological-groundwater-drought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2015\/09\/hydrological-groundwater-drought\/","title":{"rendered":"Hydrological groundwater drought"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><i class=\"fa fa-exclamation-circle fa-3x pull-left\"><\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Souhrn<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V\u00fdskyt sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdznamnou slo\u017ekou ob\u011bhu vody v p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b a jsou v interakci s povrchov\u00fdmi vodami a dal\u0161\u00edmi slo\u017ekami \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke krizov\u00fdm situac\u00edm jak ve slo\u017ek\u00e1ch \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, tak i v z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed obyvatelstva pitnou vodou a v zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b. V p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku jsou uvedeny z\u00e1konitosti ob\u011bhu podzemn\u00edch vod se z\u0159etelem na v\u00fdskyt extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch hladin, jejich sezonn\u00ed a v\u00edcelet\u00e1 periodicita a trendy, v\u00fdskyt minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin a jejich dopady na slo\u017eky \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Jsou uvedeny i negativn\u00ed antropogenn\u00ed z\u00e1sahy, pod\u00edlej\u00edc\u00ed se na v\u00fdskytu n\u00edzk\u00fdch hladin. D\u00e1le jsou uvedeny mo\u017enosti progn\u00f3z minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin jako podkladu pro p\u0159\u00edpravu rozhodnut\u00ed p\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sucha jako mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 situace a opat\u0159en\u00ed pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed problematiky sucha.<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">\u00davod<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Vedle v\u00fdskytu povodn\u00ed jako hydrologick\u00e9ho extr\u00e9mu je opa\u010dn\u00fdm extr\u00e9mem sucho, kter\u00e9mu byla v minulosti v\u011bnov\u00e1na mal\u00e1 pozornost. V p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku jsou uvedeny z\u00e1konitosti ob\u011bhu podzemn\u00edch vod se z\u0159etelem na v\u00fdskyt extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch hladin, jejich sezonn\u00ed a v\u00edcelet\u00e1 periodicita a trendy, v\u00fdskyt minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin a jejich dopady na slo\u017eky \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, antropogenn\u00ed z\u00e1sahy a mo\u017enosti progn\u00f3z minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin s vyu\u017eit\u00edm \u00fadaj\u016f monitoringu \u010cHM\u00da jako podkladu pro p\u0159\u00edpravu rozhodnut\u00ed vodopr\u00e1vn\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f p\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sucha jako mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 situace. Na z\u00e1v\u011br jsou uvedena opat\u0159en\u00ed pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed problematiky sucha.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Hydrologick\u00e9 sucho vznik\u00e1 n\u00e1sledkem nedostatku sr\u00e1\u017eek a projevuje se jako nedostatek zdroj\u016f povrchov\u00fdch a podzemn\u00edch vod (pr\u016ftoky ve vodn\u00edch toc\u00edch, hladiny jezer a n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed, podzemn\u00ed vody). P\u0159itom je vznik hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha ovlivn\u011bn i zp\u016fsobem lidsk\u00e9ho u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody, proto je nutno na hydrologick\u00e9 sucho pohl\u00ed\u017eet jako na p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed fenom\u00e9n, kter\u00fd v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt prohlouben lidsk\u00fdm p\u016fsoben\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Nedostatek sr\u00e1\u017eek se v komponent\u00e1ch podzemn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti hydrologick\u00e9ho cyklu projevuje s ur\u010dit\u00fdm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm. Hydrologick\u00e9 sucho je pak nezbytn\u00e9 poj\u00edmat jako v\u00fdsledek p\u016fsoben\u00ed proces\u016f hydrologick\u00e9ho cyklu a antropogenn\u00edho ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed v r\u00e1mci cel\u00e9ho povod\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Z\u00e1konitosti ob\u011bhu podzemn\u00ed vody v p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Podzemn\u00ed voda je velmi v\u00fdznamnou slo\u017ekou ob\u011bhu vod v p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b. Je v interakci s povrchov\u00fdmi vodami, s nimi\u017e se v d\u016fsledku morfologick\u00fdch, geologick\u00fdch a klimatick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek vz\u00e1jemn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed. V minulosti se problematika obou \u0159e\u0161ila v\u011bt\u0161inou odd\u011blen\u011b. U povrchov\u00fdch vod byla pozornost zam\u011b\u0159ena p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na povod\u0148ov\u00e9 stavy a vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vodn\u00ed energie. Minim\u00e1ln\u00edm pr\u016ftok\u016fm se v\u011bnovala mal\u00e1 pozornost (Kn\u011b\u017eek, 2013). U podzemn\u00edch vod p\u0159evl\u00e1dalo hodnocen\u00ed jejich vyu\u017eitelnosti pro vod\u00e1rensk\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed. Podzemn\u00ed vody rovn\u011b\u017e ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed terestrick\u00e9 ekosyst\u00e9my a biologick\u00e1 spole\u010denstv\u00ed na vody v\u00e1zan\u00e1. V posledn\u00edch letech se v d\u016fsledku implementace R\u00e1mcov\u00e9 sm\u011brnice EU o vod\u00e1ch (ES, 2000) do \u010desk\u00e9ho z\u00e1kona o vod\u00e1ch (z\u00e1kon \u010d. 254\/2001 Sb.) hodnot\u00ed i stavy povrchov\u00fdch a podzemn\u00edch vod. Dobr\u00fd stav povrchov\u00fdch a podzemn\u00edch vod zahrnuje i kvalitativn\u00ed a kvantitativn\u00ed po\u017eadavky na vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto vod i na pot\u0159eby biologick\u00fdch spole\u010denstev na vody v\u00e1zan\u00fdch, v\u010detn\u011b terestrick\u00fdch ekosyst\u00e9m\u016f.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Podkladem pro studium z\u00e1konitost\u00ed ob\u011bhu podzemn\u00ed vody jsou v\u00fdsledky systematick\u00e9ho pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed, zaji\u0161\u0165ovan\u00e9ho \u010cesk\u00fdm hydrometeorologick\u00fdm \u00fastavem. Bylo zah\u00e1jeno v trase projektovan\u00e9ho kan\u00e1lu Dunaj \u2013 Odra \u2013 Labe na p\u0159elomu 30. a 40. let 20. stolet\u00ed. \u010c\u00e1st t\u011bchto objekt\u016f byla za\u0159azena do st\u00e1tn\u00ed pozorovac\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a je sledov\u00e1na dosud. Celoplo\u0161n\u00e1 pozorovac\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 vznikla postupn\u011b v letech 1957 a\u017e 1969, s v\u00fdjimkou pozorovac\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b hlub\u0161\u00edch zvodn\u00ed. V dal\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed byla dopl\u0148ov\u00e1na a upravov\u00e1na. Nejdel\u0161\u00ed doba pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice je ve vrtu V 12, situovan\u00e9m v infiltra\u010dn\u00ed oblasti vodn\u00edho zdroje B\u0159ezov\u00e1 nad Svitavou v ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u00fasteck\u00e9 synklin\u00e1ly. Pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo zah\u00e1jeno 6. 10. 1899, tak\u017ee trv\u00e1 115 let. Zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed jej Brn\u011bnsk\u00e9 vod\u00e1rny a kanalizace. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav pozorovac\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b podzemn\u00edch vod je proto v\u00fdsledkem v\u00fdvoje od konce pades\u00e1t\u00fdch let a\u017e do po\u010d\u00e1tku let devades\u00e1t\u00fdch, kdy byla uskute\u010dn\u011bna posledn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 zm\u011bna, respektive dopln\u011bn\u00ed pozorovan\u00fdch objekt\u016f. Vlastn\u00ed koncepce byla polo\u017eena p\u0159i \u00favah\u00e1ch ji\u017e v po\u010d\u00e1tku, kdy objekty byly rozd\u011bleny na:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">pozorovac\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 pramen\u016f sleduj\u00edc\u00ed vydatnosti a teploty vody pramen\u016f, vybran\u00fdch podle jednotn\u00e9 metodiky na z\u00e1klad\u011b celoplo\u0161n\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu;<\/li>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">pozorovac\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 m\u011blk\u00fdch zvodn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 byla situov\u00e1na do po\u0159\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch z\u00f3n a p\u0159ilehl\u00fdch terasov\u00fdch stup\u0148\u016f, vytvo\u0159enou podle projekt\u016f z po\u010d\u00e1tku \u0161edes\u00e1t\u00fdch let;<\/li>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">pozorovac\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 hlubok\u00fdch zvodn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla b\u00fdt podle p\u016fvodn\u00edho z\u00e1m\u011bru jedn\u00edm z v\u00fdsledk\u016f programu region\u00e1ln\u00edho hydrogeologick\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho v obdob\u00ed od \u0161edes\u00e1t\u00fdch do devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Rozsah pozorovac\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b se m\u011bn\u00ed v souvislosti s jej\u00edm postupn\u00fdm budov\u00e1n\u00edm a \u00fapravami. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se pozoruje asi 2 000 objekt\u016f podzemn\u00edch vod.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">\u00dadaje o hladin\u00e1ch podzemn\u00edch vod a vydatnostech pramen\u016f p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed velmi cenn\u00fd zdroj informac\u00ed pro v\u0161echny, kdo jak\u00fdmkoliv zp\u016fsobem podzemn\u00ed vody vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed. Jsou v\u0161ak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 i p\u0159i projektov\u00e1n\u00ed staveb, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i ra\u017eb\u011b tunel\u016f a jin\u00fdch rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch d\u011bl. Zpracovan\u00e9 \u00fadaje jsou nepostradateln\u00e9 p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed a ochran\u011b zdroj\u016f vod, stejn\u011b jako pro ochranu \u017eivotn\u00edho a p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed a jsou v\u00fdchoz\u00edm podkladem pro hydrologickou a vodohospod\u00e1\u0159skou bilanci a zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed stavu podzemn\u00edch vod.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Dal\u0161\u00edm zpracov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00fadaj\u016f lze stanovit mno\u017estv\u00ed podzemn\u00edch vod, kter\u00e9 je k dispozici a tvo\u0159\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st pr\u016ftoku v povrchov\u00e9m toku. Tento \u00fadaj se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odtok (<em>obr. 1<\/em>). Stanovuje se pro des\u00edtky d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed, n\u00e1sledn\u011b se p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u00ed pro hydrogeologick\u00e9 rajony a slou\u017e\u00ed jako podklad pro vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed podzemn\u00edch vod.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-392 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr1.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr1\" width=\"1200\" height=\"536\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr1.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr1-300x134.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr1-1024x457.jpg 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1200px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1200\/536;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Obr. 1. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odtok v roce 2013 v % dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru 1981\u20132010 (zdroj \u010cHM\u00da)<br \/>\nFig. 1. Base flow in year 2012, percentage of 1981\u20132010 long-term average (source CHMI)<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Uveden\u00fd rok 2013 byl v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00fd vysok\u00fdmi sr\u00e1\u017ekami v letn\u00edm obdob\u00ed, kdy v povod\u00ed Vltavy a doln\u00edho Labe do\u0161lo a\u017e k pades\u00e1tilet\u00e9 povodni. Po m\u011bs\u00edci n\u00e1sledovala dal\u0161\u00ed, pon\u011bkud men\u0161\u00ed. Toto obdob\u00ed je v dlouhodob\u00fdch norm\u00e1lech u podzemn\u00edch vod za norm\u00e1ln\u00edho stavu v oblasti minim, kter\u00e9 byly takto podstatn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161eny.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Odb\u011bry podzemn\u00ed vody tvo\u0159\u00ed 23\u2009% z celkov\u00fdch odb\u011br\u016f vod, z toho odb\u011bry pro vodovody pro ve\u0159ejnou pot\u0159ebu p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed 82\u2009% z celkov\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed odb\u011br\u016f podzemn\u00ed vody. Druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm odb\u011bratelem je pr\u016fmysl, v\u010detn\u011b dob\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed nerostn\u00fdch surovin, kter\u00fd odeb\u00edr\u00e1 9,2\u2009% z celkov\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed. Ostatn\u00ed odb\u011bratel\u00e9 podzemn\u00ed vody jako zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, stavebnictv\u00ed \u010di energetika odeb\u00edraj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 4,8\u2009% z celkov\u00e9ho odeb\u00edran\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed. Odb\u011bry podzemn\u00ed vody pro vodovody tvo\u0159\u00ed 49\u2009% z celkov\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed vody odeb\u00edran\u00e9 pro vodovody. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee 93,8\u2009% obyvatel je z\u00e1sobov\u00e1no z ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, bude zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch 6,2\u2009% obyvatel z\u00e1sobov\u00e1no ze zdroj\u016f vlastn\u00edch, tj. v\u011bt\u0161inou z domovn\u00edch studn\u00ed, tak\u017ee pod\u00edl odb\u011br\u016f podzemn\u00ed vody pro z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed pitnou vodou bude vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 49\u2009%.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cR je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 80\u2009% vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed podzemn\u00edch vod soust\u0159ed\u011bno na zhruba 30\u2009% plochy. K nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00fazem\u00edm n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st \u010desk\u00e9 k\u0159\u00eddov\u00e9 p\u00e1nve (vymezen\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b Jizerou, doln\u00edm tokem Labe a st\u00e1tn\u00ed hranic\u00ed), v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010cechy na pomez\u00ed s Moravou a t\u0159ebo\u0148sk\u00e1 a bud\u011bjovick\u00e1 p\u00e1nev na jihu \u010cech. V\u0161echna tato \u00fazem\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt chr\u00e1n\u011bna proti zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a nadm\u011brn\u00fdm odb\u011br\u016fm podzemn\u00edch vod a dal\u0161\u00edm \u010dinnostem, kter\u00e9 by mohly ohrozit jejich mno\u017estv\u00ed nebo kvalitu. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed informace o stavu hladin podzemn\u00ed vody lze z\u00edskat na http:\/\/hydro.chmi.cz\/hpps\/hpps_pzv.php.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Podzemn\u00ed voda proud\u00ed z oblasti infiltrace do oblasti odvodn\u011bn\u00ed. Syst\u00e9my podzemn\u00edho odtoku z oblasti dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed se li\u0161\u00ed velikost\u00ed a hloubkou, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jeden syst\u00e9m m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ekr\u00fdvat druh\u00fd. Re\u017eim podzemn\u00edch vod m\u011blk\u00fdch zvodn\u00ed je velmi dynamick\u00fd a mezi nimi a povrchov\u00fdmi toky je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bna vody (Kn\u011b\u017eek, 2013; Muzik\u00e1\u0159, 2014). V podlo\u017e\u00ed m\u011blk\u00fdch zvodn\u00ed se mohou vyskytovat dal\u0161\u00ed zvodn\u011b, v nich\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1 ob\u011bh vody ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch hloubk\u00e1ch a cirkuluj\u00edc\u00ed podzemn\u00ed voda se v nich zdr\u017e\u00ed podstatn\u011b d\u00e9le ne\u017e v m\u011blk\u00fdch zvodn\u00edch. Podzemn\u00ed voda z hlub\u0161\u00edch zvodn\u00ed je rovn\u011b\u017e dr\u00e9nov\u00e1na povrchov\u00fdmi toky. Povrchov\u00e9 toky proto mohou dr\u00e9novat v\u00edce zvodn\u00ed. Tato dren\u00e1\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1 v r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00fasec\u00edch vodn\u00edho toku, kter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt shodn\u00e9 s \u00faseky, v nich\u017e se dr\u00e9nuj\u00ed m\u011blk\u00e9 podzemn\u00ed vody.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Hlavn\u00edm faktorem pro velikost dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody jsou atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky zmen\u0161en\u00e9 o v\u00fdpar. V na\u0161ich podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch jsou dva typy dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob: s celoro\u010dn\u00edm dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1sob a se sezonn\u00edm dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1sob. P\u0159i sezonn\u00edm dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob je p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017enou \u010d\u00e1st zimn\u00edho obdob\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed sn\u011bhov\u00e1 pokr\u00fdvka (s celkov\u00fdm po\u010dtem dn\u00ed s v\u00fdskytem sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvky v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e 50 dn\u00ed). Sezonn\u00ed dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159eno na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u010cR. U obou typ\u016f re\u017eimu dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob je obecn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 sezonn\u00ed periodicita, charakteristick\u00e1 v\u00fdskytem jarn\u00edch, respektive letn\u00edch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin a podzimn\u00edch, respektive zimn\u00edch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin. Sezonn\u00ed trendy maj\u00ed n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bh: po v\u00fdskytu maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin (v\u011bt\u0161inou za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku) nast\u00e1v\u00e1 sestupn\u00fd trend pohybu hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody, kter\u00fd b\u00fdv\u00e1 v ojedin\u011bl\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech p\u0159eru\u0161en m\u00edrn\u00fdm vzestupem hladiny, zp\u016fsoben\u00fdm vysok\u00fdm \u00fahrnem sr\u00e1\u017eek v letn\u00edm obdob\u00ed. Tento vzestup hladiny trv\u00e1 jen kr\u00e1tce, zpravidla n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed a po jeho odezn\u011bn\u00ed pokra\u010duje op\u011bt sestupn\u00fd trend hladiny a\u017e do v\u00fdskytu ro\u010dn\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladiny, typick\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161inou pro konec l\u00e9ta. Velikost minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin velmi dob\u0159e koreluje s velikost\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin (Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988; Soukalov\u00e1 a Muzik\u00e1\u0159, 2015). Po v\u00fdskytu ro\u010dn\u00edch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin nast\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u00fd vzestup hladiny, zp\u016fsoben\u00fd podzimn\u00edmi sr\u00e1\u017ekami p\u0159i n\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdparu, vyvrcholen\u00fd vzestupem hladiny na ja\u0159e a\u017e do v\u00fdskytu ro\u010dn\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladiny.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Na <em>obr. 2<\/em> je graficky zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn ro\u010dn\u00ed chod hladin podzemn\u00ed vody se sezonn\u00edm dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm m\u011blk\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch vod v povod\u00ed Dyje (vrt VB0349) a v povod\u00ed Moravy (vrt VB0356).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Vedle sezonn\u00edho kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hladin podzemn\u00ed vody (sezonn\u00ed periodicity) existuje v\u00edcelet\u00e9 kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hladin podzemn\u00ed vody, kter\u00e9 se vyzna\u010duje v\u00edceletou periodicitou (angl. secular periodicity). Pro stanoven\u00ed v\u00edcelet\u00e9 periodicity se zpracov\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady ro\u010dn\u00edch charakteristik hladin podzemn\u00ed vody (ro\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9, maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed nebo minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladiny).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-393 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr2.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr2\" width=\"800\" height=\"516\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr2-300x194.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/516;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 2. Ro\u010dn\u00ed chod hladin podzemn\u00edch vod za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010 ve vrtu VB0349 Charvatsk\u00e1 Nov\u00e1 Ves a VB0356 Mikul\u010dice<br \/>\nFig. 2. Fluctuations of 1981\u20132010 average monthly groundwater levels in monitoring wells VB0349 Charvatsk\u00e1 Nov\u00e1 Ves and VB0356 Mikul\u010dice<\/h6>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Periodicita a trendy hladin podzemn\u00ed vody<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro studium periodicity, trend\u016f a progn\u00f3zy hladin podzemn\u00ed vody se pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady. \u010casov\u00e1 \u0159ada je chronologick\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed proveden\u00fdch v pravideln\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch intervalech. Hydrologick\u00fdmi \u010dasov\u00fdmi \u0159adami jsou \u0159ady hladin podzemn\u00ed vody, vydatnosti pramen\u016f, velikosti podzemn\u00edho odtoku atd. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00ed vody se jedn\u00e1 o \u0159ady minim\u00e1ln\u00edch ro\u010dn\u00edch hladin. Anal\u00fdza \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady umo\u017en\u00ed identifikaci mechanismu jej\u00ed tvorby a na jej\u00edm z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edho budouc\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed. V hydrologick\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch je mo\u017eno vy\u010dlenit: trend, sezonn\u00ed slo\u017eku, cyklickou slo\u017eku v\u00edceletou, slo\u017eku n\u00e1hodnou a slo\u017eku katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Trend p\u0159edstavuje dlouhodobou systematickou zm\u011bnu v \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b (Kisiel, 1969; Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988; Soukalov\u00e1 a Muzik\u00e1\u0159, 2015). Projevuje se jako dlouhodob\u00fd vzestup nebo pokles hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody, resp. vydatnosti. Po identifikaci trendu testy n\u00e1hodnosti se p\u0159istoup\u00ed k jeho aproximaci matematick\u00fdmi k\u0159ivkami. Jako nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se v hydrologii podzemn\u00edch vod jev\u00ed trend line\u00e1rn\u00ed. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b um\u011bl\u00e9ho ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed re\u017eimu podzemn\u00ed vody (nap\u0159\u00edklad odb\u011bry podzemn\u00ed vody) je nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed aproximace logaritmickou nebo exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed funkc\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed periodou u v\u011bt\u0161iny vrt\u016f je dvan\u00e1ctim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed perioda, kter\u00e1 koresponduje se sezonn\u00edm dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm podzemn\u00ed vody. Druh\u00e1 nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed (plat\u00ed pro povod\u00ed Moravy) je perioda p\u011btilet\u00e1. Dvoulet\u00e1 a desetilet\u00e1 perioda jsou t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. U \u0159ad s \u0161edes\u00e1tiletou \u0159adou pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed se vyskytuj\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 t\u0159icetilet\u00e9 periody, odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed tzv. Br\u00fccknerov\u011b period\u011b (34let\u00e9), zn\u00e1m\u00e9 p\u0159i popisu p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch jev\u016f. Na <em>obr. 3<\/em> je vyzna\u010den pr\u016fb\u011bh modelov\u00fdch hodnot m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00edch vod m\u011blk\u00fdch zvodn\u00ed stanoven\u00fdch harmonickou anal\u00fdzou. D\u00e9lka period v \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch ro\u010dn\u00edch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin a ro\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hladin je analogick\u00e1 (viz d\u00e1le).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Periodicita se vyskytuje velmi \u010dasto s nestejnou d\u00e9lkou amplitud a period a je n\u011bkdy m\u00e1lo v\u00fdrazn\u00e1. Proto je vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed uva\u017eovat sp\u00ed\u0161e o tendenci k periodicit\u011b nebo o kvaziperiodicit\u011b. Ve v\u00edcelet\u00e9m chodu ro\u010dn\u00edch charakteristik se vyskytuj\u00ed seskupen\u00ed n\u011bkolika za sebou jdouc\u00edch let s vysok\u00fdmi hladinami, nebo n\u00edzk\u00fdmi hladinami. Mezi nimi je sestupn\u00fd, nebo vzestupn\u00fd trend hladiny (Castany, 1978; C\u00edlek, 2011; Kovalevskij, 1976, 1983; Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988). Opa\u010dn\u00e9 extr\u00e9my se mohou vyskytnout v sousedn\u00edch letech pouze v krasu nebo v horsk\u00fdch zvodn\u00edch (infiltra\u010dn\u00ed oblasti) a v \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch s kr\u00e1tkou dobou monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed (do 7\u201310 let). V sezonn\u00edm i mnohalet\u00e9m kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody se neprojevuje v\u00fdrazn\u00fd vliv aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek, n\u00fdbr\u017e akumulace sr\u00e1\u017eek z p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho obdob\u00ed. Doba akumulace sr\u00e1\u017eek roste se vzd\u00e1lenost\u00ed posuzovan\u00e9ho m\u00edsta od infiltra\u010dn\u00ed oblasti a je nep\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na rychlosti proud\u011bn\u00ed podzemn\u00ed vody. U v\u00edcelet\u00e9ho kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hladin to m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout a\u017e 5\u20137 let (Kovalevskij, 1976; Marine, 1963; Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988; Br\u00e1zdil, 2015).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Periodicita byla pozorov\u00e1na i v minulosti u v\u00fdskytu sr\u00e1\u017eek. Popsal ji Dr. F.\u202fAugustin v roce 1894 (C\u00edlek, 2011). Byla uvedena i tzv. Br\u00fccknerova perioda pro sr\u00e1\u017eky a pr\u016ftoky v povrchov\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku v d\u00e9lce 33\u201336\u202flet (Br\u00fcckner, 1890). Podstata periodicity nebyla dosud spolehliv\u011b vysv\u011btlena. V\u011bt\u0161ina badatel\u016f se p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00ed k vlivu heliogeofyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch faktor\u016f. Kvaziperiodicitu je mo\u017eno p\u0159i\u010d\u00edst interferenci r\u016fzn\u00fdch heliogeofyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed p\u0159es atmosf\u00e9ru na zemskou k\u016fru a hraj\u00ed \u00falohu \u201efiltru\u201c (Kovalevskij, 1976, 1983). Pro kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hladin podzemn\u00ed vody jsou rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eky. V\u00fdznamnou roli hraje iner\u010dn\u00ed schopnost zvodn\u011bn\u00e9ho kolektoru. Ro\u010dn\u00ed charakteristiky ovliv\u0148uje \u00fahrn sr\u00e1\u017eek za p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch n\u011bkolik let (Kovalevskij, 1976, 1983; Marine, 1963; Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988). P\u0159\u00edklady zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch period hladin podzemn\u00ed vody uv\u00e1d\u00ed d\u00e1le Ram\u00f3n (1978), Zalcberg (1976, 1980) a Zaporozec (1980).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-394 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr3.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr3\" width=\"1122\" height=\"400\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr3.jpg 1122w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr3-300x107.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr3-1024x365.jpg 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1122px) 100vw, 1122px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1122px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1122\/400;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 3. Modelov\u00e9 a nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hladiny ve vrtu VB0129 Uh\u0159i\u010dice<br \/>\nFig. 3. Modelled and measured average monthly groundwater levels in the monitoring well VB0129 Uh\u0159i\u010dice<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Periodicita ro\u010dn\u00edch \u00fahrn\u016f sr\u00e1\u017eek, kter\u00e9 jsou rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem pro tvorbu podzemn\u00edch vod, koresponduje s periodami v \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch hladin podzemn\u00edch vod. To dokl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u010dasov\u00e1 \u0159ada ro\u010dn\u00edch \u00fahrn\u016f sr\u00e1\u017eek ve stanici Napajedla za obdob\u00ed 1915\u20132014. Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed periody jsou 2 a 10 let (viz <em>obr. 4<\/em>).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-395 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr4\" width=\"800\" height=\"805\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-298x300.jpg 298w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-125x125.jpg 125w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-32x32.jpg 32w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-64x64.jpg 64w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-96x96.jpg 96w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr4-128x128.jpg 128w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/805;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 4. V\u00fdznamn\u00e9 periody v \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b ro\u010dn\u00edch \u00fahrn\u016f sr\u00e1\u017eek ze sr\u00e1\u017ekom\u011brn\u00e9 stanice Napajedla<br \/>\nFig. 4. Significant periods in time series of annual precipitations sums from precipitation station Napajedla<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">P\u0159\u00edklady v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch trend\u016f ro\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch a ro\u010dn\u00edch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin v povod\u00ed Moravy, Dyje a Jihlavy jsou uvedeny na <em>obr. 5<\/em>. Ve v\u0161ech vrtech je patrn\u00fd sestupn\u00fd line\u00e1rn\u00ed trend.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr5.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-396 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr5.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr5\" width=\"800\" height=\"2338\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr5.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr5-103x300.jpg 103w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr5-350x1024.jpg 350w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/2338;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 5. V\u00fdznamn\u00e9 trendy ro\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch a minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00edch vod<br \/>\nFig. 5. Significant trends in average annual and minimum annual groundwater levels<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Sestupn\u00e9 trendy mohou b\u00fdt zp\u016fsobeny klimatick\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami a prostorov\u00fdm rozlo\u017een\u00edm sr\u00e1\u017eek b\u011bhem roku. V \u010cR se zat\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zm\u011bny v celkov\u00e9m objemu sr\u00e1\u017eek nepotvrdily \u2013 pomalu se ov\u0161em za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 projevovat zm\u011bna v rozlo\u017een\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku \u2013 v\u00edce sr\u00e1\u017eek v zim\u011b, m\u00e9n\u011b na ja\u0159e. Dal\u0161\u00edm indik\u00e1torem klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn je patrn\u011b n\u00e1r\u016fst po\u010dtu a intenzity extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek (v\u00edce ne\u017e 150 mm\/den). P\u0159\u00edvalov\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky rychle odte\u010dou a sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed velikost dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody.<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">V\u00fdskyt minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin a dopady v\u00fdskytu minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladiny se vyskytuj\u00ed s p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b desetiletou periodou. Jako m\u00e1lo vodn\u00e9 se z hlediska podzemn\u00edch vod jevily roky 1934, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1974, 1984, 1993, 2003 a 2012. V povod\u00ed Moravy byly dosa\u017eeny minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladiny p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v letech 1974, 1993 a 1984, v povod\u00ed Jihlavy v\u011bt\u0161inou v letech 1995 a 1983, v povod\u00ed Svratky v letech 1973\u20131974 a v povod\u00ed Dyje v letech 1974, 1983 a 2003. V roce 2012 se hladiny podzemn\u00edch vod p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily nebo p\u0159ekro\u010dily absolutn\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladiny v horn\u00edm povod\u00ed Jihlavy a v povod\u00ed Dyje.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">P\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fdskytu minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin je uveden ve vrtu V 12 s nejdel\u0161\u00ed dobou pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice v infiltra\u010dn\u00ed oblasti vodn\u00edho zdroje B\u0159ezov\u00e1 nad Svitavou. \u010casov\u00e1 \u0159ada pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch ro\u010dn\u00edch hladin m\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u011b sestupn\u00fd trend. P\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou je vliv sr\u00e1\u017eek a d\u00e1le trval\u00fd odb\u011br podzemn\u00ed vody pro brn\u011bnsk\u00fd vodovod. V \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b se vyskytuje statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 25let\u00e1 perioda. Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 periody jsou o d\u00e9lce 2, 5, 10 a 16 let. Tyto periody byly tak\u00e9 vybr\u00e1ny pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed pohybu hladin podzemn\u00ed vody harmonickou anal\u00fdzou (<em>obr. 6<\/em>).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Absolutn\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed hladina se vyskytla ve vrtu v Ban\u00edn\u011b v roce 1993. N\u00edzk\u00e9 hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody byly i v letech 1990\u20131992, kdy bylo \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky posti\u017een\u00e9 suchem, jeho\u017e bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou byl zna\u010dn\u00fd deficit sr\u00e1\u017eek. Nedostatek sr\u00e1\u017eek nastal na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed, nejv\u00edce se projevil ve st\u0159edn\u00edch, v\u00fdchodn\u00edch a ji\u017en\u00edch \u010cech\u00e1ch a na ji\u017en\u00ed Morav\u011b.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr6.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-397 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr6.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr6\" width=\"800\" height=\"1722\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr6.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr6-139x300.jpg 139w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr6-476x1024.jpg 476w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/1722;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 6. Periody v \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b hladin podzemn\u00ed vody ve vrtu v Ban\u00edn\u011b a v\u00fdskyt minim\u00e1ln\u00edch ro\u010dn\u00edch hladin<br \/>\nFig. 6. Periods in the time series of average annual groundwater levels in the Ban\u00edn monitoring well and occurrence of minimum annual groundwater levels<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">P\u0159i sledov\u00e1n\u00ed dopadu klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na \u00fazem\u00ed na\u0161eho st\u00e1tu se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee s velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed k poklesu ro\u010dn\u00edho souhrnu sr\u00e1\u017eek, m\u011bn\u00ed se v\u0161ak jejich rozlo\u017een\u00ed, m\u00edrn\u011b se zv\u00fd\u0161il zimn\u00ed \u00fahrn a v letn\u00edm obdob\u00ed se zm\u011bnil jejich charakter, p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00ed intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eky.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Podstatn\u00fd vliv v\u0161ak m\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fst teploty, kter\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u011b stoup\u00e1 ji\u017e od roku 1980. K roku 2010 byl jej\u00ed vzestup \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b o jeden stupe\u0148 celsia. Tato velikost se zd\u00e1 mal\u00e1, zv\u00fd\u0161ila v\u0161ak velikost \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 20\u2009%. To se na n\u011bkter\u00fdch povod\u00edch (Bl\u0161anka, Metuje v polick\u00e9 p\u00e1nvi) projevilo znateln\u00fdm zmen\u0161en\u00edm z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o jednu t\u0159etinu.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V d\u016fsledku v\u00fdskytu n\u00edzk\u00fdch hladin podzemn\u00ed vody vznik\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed slo\u017eek \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Mal\u00e9 pr\u016ftoky v povrchov\u00fdch toc\u00edch jsou tvo\u0159eny podzemn\u00ed slo\u017ekou odtoku, tak\u017ee p\u0159i n\u00edzk\u00fdch hladin\u00e1ch podzemn\u00ed vody ve zvodn\u00edch, kter\u00e9 jsou v hydraulick\u00e9 spojitosti s podzemn\u00edmi vodami, mohou poklesnout pr\u016ftoky pod hodnotu minim\u00e1ln\u00edho z\u016fstatkov\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku, jen\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje obecn\u00e9 nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s povrchov\u00fdmi vodami a ekologick\u00e9 funkce vodn\u00edho toku. Ekosyst\u00e9m je vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd vztah \u017eiv\u00fdch organism\u016f a jejich prost\u0159ed\u00ed, tj. geologick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Geologick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed zahrnuje horniny a p\u016fdu, podzemn\u00ed vodu, p\u016fdn\u00ed vzduch a mikroorganismy. V\u0161echny jsou ve vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 souvislosti. Organismy se p\u0159izp\u016fsobuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m. Po zm\u011bn\u011b podm\u00ednek se bu\u010f nov\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m p\u0159izp\u016fsob\u00ed, nebo zahynou. V r\u016fzn\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch jsou rostliny geobotanick\u00fdmi indik\u00e1tory ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek. Mezi podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed r\u016fst rostlin, pat\u0159\u00ed kvalita p\u016fdy, p\u016fdn\u00ed vlhkost a jej\u00ed velikost. P\u016fdn\u00ed vlhkost z\u00e1vis\u00ed krom\u011b re\u017eimu sr\u00e1\u017eek i na hloubce hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody. Citeln\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem do ekosyst\u00e9m\u016f je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nebo zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody a s n\u00edm \u010dasto i zm\u011bna p\u016fdn\u00ed vlhkosti zemin nesaturovan\u00e9 z\u00f3ny. Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm p\u016fdn\u00ed vlhkosti hynou mok\u0159adn\u00ed rostliny a vznik\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161inou zjednodu\u0161en\u00fd ekologick\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Vysok\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch plodin jsou podm\u00edn\u011bny dostate\u010dn\u00fdm provzdu\u0161\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u016fdy a optim\u00e1ln\u00ed vlhkost\u00ed p\u016fdy. Pro vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed optim\u00e1ln\u00ed vlhkosti byla zavedena optim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody v z\u00e1vislosti na typech p\u016fdy a typech plodin. Podle v\u00fdzkum\u016f Petrasovice je nap\u0159\u00edklad v lehk\u00fdch p\u016fd\u00e1ch optim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody pro m\u011blce ko\u0159en\u00edc\u00ed vegetaci v hloubce 0,4\u2009m pod ter\u00e9nem. P\u0159i hloubce hladiny 0,2\u2009m pod ter\u00e9nem poklesne v\u00fdnos na 50\u2009% v\u00fdnosu p\u0159i optim\u00e1ln\u00ed hladin\u011b a p\u0159i hloubce hladiny 0,9\u2009m na 60\u2009% (Hol\u00fd, 1984).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V\u00fdskyt minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00ed vody vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 sucho v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch. Podle Castany (1978) je sucho v podzemn\u00ed vod\u011b d\u016fsledkem deficitu efektivn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek a vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody a podle technick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy EU (EC, 2008) se sucho projevuje jako v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pokles pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho dostupn\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed vody p\u0159i v\u00fdrazn\u00e9m poklesu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hladin podzemn\u00ed vody. P\u0159es v\u00fdznam podzemn\u00edch vod bylo doposud \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed dopad\u016f sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch v\u011bnov\u00e1no m\u00e1lo pozornosti.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V\u00fdskyt minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00ed vody v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed krom\u011b p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch faktor\u016f i antropogenn\u00ed z\u00e1sahy. Trval\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody nast\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinkem odb\u011br\u016f podzemn\u00ed vody, odvod\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm lo\u017eisek, provozem hydraulick\u00fdch bari\u00e9r p\u0159i sanaci kontaminovan\u00e9 podzemn\u00ed vody, trval\u00fdm sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm hladin pod z\u00e1klady staveb v m\u011bstsk\u00fdch aglomerac\u00edch a u dopravn\u00edch staveb, u nich\u017e je niveleta vedena v z\u00e1\u0159ezu pod hladinou podzemn\u00ed vody a p\u0159i nich\u017e odeb\u00edran\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed podzemn\u00ed vody nen\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody a normami environment\u00e1ln\u00ed kvality (tj. dobr\u00fd stav podzemn\u00edch vod). Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed i \u00fapravy tok\u016f (nap\u0159imov\u00e1n\u00ed meandr\u016f). Podzemn\u00ed stavby a podzemn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b (vodovodn\u00ed a kanaliza\u010dn\u00ed potrub\u00ed, produktovody) situovan\u00e9 pod hladinou podzemn\u00ed vody maj\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e dren\u00e1\u017en\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek. Zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e1 v\u00fdroba se rovn\u011b\u017e pod\u00edl\u00ed za ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody, nap\u0159\u00edklad nevhodn\u00fdmi osevn\u00edmi postupy, technologickou nek\u00e1zn\u00ed p\u0159i nasazen\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 techniky na rozbahn\u011bn\u00fdch pozemc\u00edch a podobn\u011b. S v\u00fdstavbou nov\u00fdch objekt\u016f nar\u016fstaj\u00ed nepropustn\u00e9 plochy, kter\u00e9 sni\u017euj\u00ed velikost infiltrace sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch vod.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Stav sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch je hodnocen podle pravd\u011bpodobnosti p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hladiny ve vrtu v p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci. Stav sucha je charakterizov\u00e1n t\u0159emi kategoriemi z\u00e1va\u017enosti odvozen\u00fdmi za referen\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010. Jako m\u00edrn\u00e9 sucho jsou ozna\u010deny stavy m\u00edrn\u011b podnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed 75\u201385\u2009%, jako siln\u00e9 sucho stavy siln\u011b podnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed 85\u201395\u2009% a jako mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 sucho jsou ozna\u010deny mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b podnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed stavy, kter\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edm 5\u2009% pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Analogicky znamen\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed 15\u201325\u2009% m\u00edrn\u011b nadnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed stav hladiny, pravd\u011bpodobnost p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed 5\u201315\u2009% siln\u011b nadnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed stav hladiny a jako mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nadnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed jsou ozna\u010deny stavy, kter\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm 5\u2009% pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Hodnocen\u00ed je prov\u00e1d\u011bno jak pro jednotliv\u00e9 objekty, tak souhrnn\u011b pro definovan\u00e9 oblasti povod\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Popis aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situace stavu sucha v r\u00e1mci hydrometeorologick\u00e9 situace je pravideln\u011b publikov\u00e1n v T\u00fddenn\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b o hydrometeorologick\u00e9 situaci a suchu na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cR (<em>obr. 7<\/em>) <a href=\"http:\/\/portal.chmi.cz.\">http:\/\/portal.chmi.cz.<\/a><\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr7.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-398 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr7.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr7\" width=\"1000\" height=\"599\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr7.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr7-300x180.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1000px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1000\/599;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 7. Stav hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody v m\u011blk\u00fdch vrtech \u2013 t\u00fddenn\u00ed zpr\u00e1va \u010cHM\u00da<br \/>\nFig. 7. Groundwater levels in shallow monitoring wells \u2013 CHMI weekly report<\/h6>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">P\u0159edpov\u011bdi hladin podzemn\u00ed vody<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">P\u0159edpov\u011bdi hladin podzemn\u00ed vody vych\u00e1zej\u00ed nej\u010dast\u011bji z \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00edch vod, z nich\u017e je mo\u017eno prov\u00e1d\u011bt st\u0159edn\u011b dlouh\u00e9 (sezonn\u00ed) p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Progn\u00f3zy ro\u010dn\u00edch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin se mohou stanovit korela\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdzou na z\u00e1klad\u011b regresn\u00ed rovnice m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hladin (nap\u0159\u00edklad pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hladina v b\u0159eznu jako nez\u00e1visle prom\u011bnn\u00e1 a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hladina v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed jako z\u00e1visle prom\u011bnn\u00e1). Pro dlouhodob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nejl\u00e9pe slou\u017e\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady ro\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hladin s aplikac\u00ed harmonick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy a autoregresn\u00edho modelu.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Na <em>obr. 8<\/em> jsou vyzna\u010deny modelov\u00e9 hodnoty pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch ro\u010dn\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00edch vod spo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 harmonickou anal\u00fdzou s progn\u00f3zou hladin.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr8.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-831];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-399 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr8.jpg\" alt=\"hydrologicke-sucho-obr8\" width=\"1400\" height=\"400\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr8.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr8-300x86.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/hydrologicke-sucho-obr8-1024x293.jpg 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1400px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1400\/400;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Obr. 8. Modelov\u00e9 a nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hladiny ve vrtu VB0129 Uh\u0159i\u010dice<br \/>\nFig. 8. Modelled and measured average annual groundwater levels in the monitoring well VB0129 Uh\u0159i\u010dice<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Ka\u017ed\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je zat\u00ed\u017eena chybou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, tj. rozd\u00edlem mezi skute\u010dnou a p\u0159edpov\u00eddanou hodnotou. Stanovuje se p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e1 chyba p\u0159edpov\u011bdi <em>\u03b4<\/em> <em><sub>p<\/sub><\/em> = 0,674 <em>s<\/em>, kde <em>s<\/em> je sm\u011brodatn\u00e1 odchylka nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch hodnot. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f se pova\u017euje za p\u0159ijatelnou, jestli\u017ee 80\u2009% p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch hodnot m\u00e1 chybu p\u0159edpov\u011bdi ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e1 chyba p\u0159edpov\u011bdi <em>\u03b4<\/em><em><sub>p<\/sub><\/em>. D\u00e1le se m\u016f\u017ee prov\u00e9st klasifikace p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho modelu. To je pod\u00edl sm\u011brodatn\u00fdch odchylek p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch hodnot <em>sp<\/em> a sm\u011brodatn\u00fdch odchylek pozorovan\u00fdch hodnot <em>s<\/em>. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dobr\u00e1 ( <em>sp <\/em>\/ <em>s <\/em>= 0,4), uspokojiv\u00e1 (0,6), slab\u00e1 (0,8) a neuspokojiv\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V povod\u00ed Moravy byla provedena progn\u00f3za minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin m\u011blk\u00fdch zvodn\u00ed v roce 2013 korela\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdzou ve 33 monitorovac\u00edch vrtech hl\u00e1sn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b z\u00e1kladn\u00ed m\u011blk\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b podzemn\u00edch vod. Nez\u00e1visle prom\u011bnnou byly pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hladiny v b\u0159eznu a z\u00e1visle prom\u011bnnou byly pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hladiny v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. V posuzovan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed poklesly pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hladiny o 0,05\u20130,95\u2009m (pr\u016fm\u011br 0,34 m). Celkem 85\u2009% p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch hodnot m\u011blo chybu p\u0159edpov\u011bdi ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byla p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e1 chyba p\u0159edpov\u011bdi <em>\u03b4<\/em><em><sub>p <\/sub><\/em>, tzn., \u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f byla p\u0159ijateln\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Uveden\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy hladin podzemn\u00ed vody se vztahuj\u00ed k monitorovan\u00e9mu vrtu. Pro praktickou aplikaci progn\u00f3z je nutn\u00e1 plo\u0161n\u00e1 extrapolace, pro ni\u017e je nutno zvolit indika\u010dn\u00ed vrt. Indika\u010dn\u00ed vrt mus\u00ed b\u00fdt situov\u00e1n v bl\u00edzkosti m\u00edst, pro n\u011b\u017e se m\u00e1 progn\u00f3za extrapolovat a nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt ovlivn\u011bn odb\u011bry podzemn\u00ed vody. Mus\u00ed m\u00edt analogick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky jako monitorovac\u00ed vrt, v n\u011bm\u017e byla provedena progn\u00f3za. Jedn\u00e1 se o hydrogeologick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro tvorbu z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody, odtok podzemn\u00ed vody, litologii a mocnost nenasycen\u00e9 a nasycen\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, jejich propustnost, geomorfologick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky a zejm\u00e9na sezonn\u00ed synchronii kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hladin atd. (Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988; R\u00e9th\u00e1ti, 1983; Zalcberg, 1980). V indika\u010dn\u00edm vrtu se mus\u00ed m\u011b\u0159it hladiny podzemn\u00ed vody alespo\u0148 po dobu dvou let soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s monitorovac\u00edm vrtem, pro n\u011bj\u017e byla provedena progn\u00f3za a v n\u011bm\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00fd monitoring. Pro m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hladiny v obou vrtech se stanov\u00ed korela\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1vislost. Z regresn\u00ed rovnice se dopo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 progn\u00f3zn\u00ed hladina v indika\u010dn\u00edm vrtu. Z korela\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1vislost\u00ed vrt\u016f s dlouhodob\u00fdm monitoringem a s dvoulet\u00fdm monitoringem v povod\u00ed Dyje vyplynulo, \u017ee v kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b monitorovan\u00fdch vrtech je mo\u017eno spolehliv\u011b stanovit 90\u2009% a p\u0159esn\u011bji 80\u2009% hladiny (Muzik\u00e1\u0159 a Soukalov\u00e1, 1988).<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Progn\u00f3zn\u00ed metodiky uv\u00e1d\u00ed d\u00e1le Heinrichsdorf (1969), R\u00e9thati (1983) \u010di Zalcberg (1976, 1980).<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Opat\u0159en\u00ed pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed problematiky sucha<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed problematiky sucha doporu\u010dilo Ministerstvo \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed krom\u011b dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed i opat\u0159en\u00ed operativn\u00ed, obdobn\u011b jako u povodn\u00ed: zaveden\u00ed t\u0159\u00ed stup\u0148\u016f aktivit \u2013 bd\u011blost, pohotovost a nebezpe\u010d\u00ed. Zpracov\u00e1v\u00e1 se n\u00e1vrh indik\u00e1tor\u016f pro sucho a typov\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny pro \u201edlouhodob\u00e9 sucho\u201c. Pro p\u0159\u00edpravu opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159i stavech bd\u011blosti, pohotovosti a nebezpe\u010d\u00ed bude nutno zpracov\u00e1vat progn\u00f3zy minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin podzemn\u00ed vody a zam\u011b\u0159it se i na plo\u0161nou extrapolaci progn\u00f3z. Z pohledu dlouhodob\u00fdch pokles\u016f hladin podzemn\u00edch vod a jejich dopadu na vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 zdroje podzemn\u00edch vod zastihuje v sou\u010dasnosti stav \u201epohotovost\u201c pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b 10\u2009% obyvatel. V\u00fdskyt sucha a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 ohro\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed pitnou vodou vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 situace, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed \u0159e\u0161it vodopr\u00e1vn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady. Jako opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159i mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch situac\u00edch mohou nap\u0159\u00edklad vodopr\u00e1vn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady omezit nebo zak\u00e1zat na nezbytn\u011b nutnou dobu nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s vodami podle platn\u00e9ho povolen\u00ed k odb\u011bru vody z vodn\u00edho zdroje.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Velmi dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem jsou stupn\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch stav\u016f sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch, zpracovan\u00e9 pro j\u00edmac\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed Lit\u00e1 (Finfrlov\u00e1, 2009). Stupn\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch stav\u016f sucha zpracovali hydrogeologov\u00e9, pracovn\u00edci \u010cHM\u00da a Vodovod\u016f a kanalizac\u00ed. Indika\u010dn\u00ed hladinou je hladina v neovlivn\u011bn\u00e9m vrtu st\u00e1tn\u00ed monitorovac\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b. Pro mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 stavy sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch byla navr\u017eena tato opat\u0159en\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed stav: 60% p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hladiny;<\/li>\n<li>Bd\u011blost: 80% p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hladiny, zmen\u0161en\u00ed intervalu m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed hladin podzemn\u00ed vody a hodnocen\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed;<\/li>\n<li>Pohotovost: 90% p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hladiny, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 omezen\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f (v\u00fdzvy k \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed), aktivace komise pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nedostatku vody a p\u0159\u00edprava nouzov\u00e9ho stavu;<\/li>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">Nouze: informov\u00e1n\u00ed krizov\u00fdch slo\u017eek, omezen\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, neplat\u00ed omezen\u00ed \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed uveden\u00e1 v rozhodnut\u00ed o nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s vodami z hlediska ochrany p\u0159\u00edrody.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro n\u00e1vrh mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch stav\u016f sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch by bylo vhodn\u00e9 stanovit pro indika\u010dn\u00ed vrt d\u0159\u00edve uveden\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vky vody a ekologick\u00fdch rizik p\u0159i v\u00fdskytu sucha vede ke st\u0159etu z\u00e1jm\u016f, p\u0159i kter\u00fdch se p\u0159ednostn\u011b \u0159e\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1jmy ochrany p\u0159\u00edrody. Na\u0161e legislativa by m\u011bla v\u00e9st k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed problematiky rozumn\u00fdmi kompromisy, p\u0159i nich\u017e bude dosa\u017eena rovnov\u00e1ha mezi ekologick\u00fdmi, soci\u00e1ln\u00edmi i ekonomick\u00fdmi hledisky.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V d\u016fsledku vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed podzemn\u00edch a povrchov\u00fdch vod a pro dosa\u017een\u00ed jejich dobr\u00e9ho stavu p\u0159i jejich vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed je nutn\u00fd integrovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, tzv. integrovan\u00fd management vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f (water resources management) \u2013 UNESCO 2012.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Opat\u0159en\u00ed pro zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f sucha v podzemn\u00ed vod\u011b zahrnuj\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e zlep\u0161en\u00ed reten\u010dn\u00edch schopnost\u00ed krajiny spojen\u00e9 s revitalizac\u00ed krajiny a efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hospoda\u0159en\u00ed se sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdmi vodami.<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V\u00fdskyt sucha v podzemn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdznamnou slo\u017ekou ob\u011bhu vody v p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b a jsou v interakci s povrchov\u00fdmi vodami a dal\u0161\u00edmi slo\u017ekami \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke krizov\u00fdm situac\u00edm jak ve slo\u017ek\u00e1ch \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, tak i v z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed obyvatelstva pitnou vodou a v zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b. Z tohoto d\u016fvodu je nezbytn\u00e9 zpracovat dlouhodob\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed problematiky sucha, v\u010detn\u011b progn\u00f3z minim\u00e1ln\u00edch hladin a zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed reten\u010dn\u00edch schopnost\u00ed krajiny a efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed se sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdmi vodami.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The paper deals with the regularities of groundwater circulation with respect to extremely low groundwater level occurrence, seasonal and multiannual periodicity and trends of groundwater levels, occurrence of minimal levels and their impact on the enviromental components, methods of groundwater levels forecasts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[113,115,116,114],"coauthors":[31,38],"class_list":["post-831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-hydrological-drought","tag-minimal-groundwater-level","tag-monitoring-well","tag-periodicity"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=831"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30287,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/831\/revisions\/30287"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=831"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}