{"id":826,"date":"2015-09-03T13:56:21","date_gmt":"2015-09-03T13:56:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=826"},"modified":"2024-07-16T10:08:41","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T09:08:41","slug":"identification-of-regions-vulnerable-to-deficits-in-water-resources-in-the-czech-republic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2015\/09\/identification-of-regions-vulnerable-to-deficits-in-water-resources-in-the-czech-republic\/","title":{"rendered":"Identification of regions vulnerable to deficits in water resources in the Czech Republic"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><i class=\"fa fa-exclamation-circle fa-3x pull-left\"><\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Souhrn<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V r\u00e1mci projektu \u0159e\u0161en\u00e9ho ve V\u00daV TGM, v.v.i., Strategie ochrany p\u0159ed negativn\u00edmi dopady povodn\u00ed a erozn\u00edmi jevy p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice byly definov\u00e1ny zraniteln\u00e9 oblasti \u010cR z hlediska nedostatku vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. Stupe\u0148 zranitelnosti byl definov\u00e1n pro povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du jak pro pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010, tak pro v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty 2021\u20132050 a 2071\u20132100 pro t\u0159i r\u016fzn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Hydrologick\u00e9 modely povod\u00ed byly sestaveny za pou\u017eit\u00ed bilan\u010dn\u00edho modelu BILAN. V \u010dl\u00e1nku je pops\u00e1na metodika prac\u00ed a vybran\u00e9 d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed v\u00fdsledky.<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">\u00davod<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">\u010cl\u00e1nek seznamuje s d\u00edl\u010d\u00edmi v\u00fdsledky projektu Strategie ochrany p\u0159ed negativn\u00edmi dopady povodn\u00ed a erozn\u00edmi jevy p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice, kter\u00fd je ve V\u00daV TGM, v.v.i., \u0159e\u0161en v posledn\u00edch letech. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed prob\u00edh\u00e1 ve spolupr\u00e1ci s firmami Sweco Hydroprojekt, a.s., Vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd rozvoj a v\u00fdstavba, a.s., WASTECH, a.s., a SINDLAR Group, s.r.o.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V r\u00e1mci projektu byla modelov\u00e1na hydrologick\u00e1 bilance pro povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du pro pozorovan\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. D\u00e1le bylo \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159eno na identifikaci zraniteln\u00fdch oblast\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky z hlediska nedostatku vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Nedostatek vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zp\u016fsoben bu\u010f p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi pom\u011bry, nebo nadm\u011brn\u00fdm u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm. V budouc\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu lze sp\u00ed\u0161e o\u010dek\u00e1vat zm\u011bny p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch pom\u011br\u016f ne\u017e z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bny ve velikosti u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b pro n\u011bkter\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna znamenat podstatn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1rok\u016f na vodn\u00ed zdroje (nap\u0159. z\u00e1vlahy, chladic\u00ed voda). Z tohoto d\u016fvodu byla v projektu vyhodnocov\u00e1na klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna na z\u00e1klad\u011b index\u016f zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edch tak\u00e9 u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vod, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 zm\u011bny v budouc\u00edm u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jsou zanedb\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro sucho je charakteristick\u00fd jeho pozvoln\u00fd za\u010d\u00e1tek, zna\u010dn\u00fd plo\u0161n\u00fd rozsah a dlouh\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed (Tallaksen aj., 1997). Neudr\u017eiteln\u00fd zp\u016fsob hospoda\u0159en\u00ed s vodou (v\u010detn\u011b jej\u00ed nadm\u011brn\u00e9 spot\u0159eby a zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed) a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 dopady klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny mohou v\u00e9st k rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm dopad\u016fm na p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed a na spole\u010dnost. V \u010dl\u00e1nku jsou identifikov\u00e1ny oblasti \u010cR, kter\u00e9 jsou a kter\u00e9 s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed budou k probl\u00e9m\u016fm s nedostatkem vody n\u00e1chyln\u00e9 z hlediska p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn.<\/p>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Data a metody<\/h2>\n<h3 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Hydrologick\u00e1 bilance<\/h3>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro odhad hydrologick\u00e9 bilance pomoc\u00ed modelu Bilan je nezbytn\u00e9 m\u00edt k dispozici (vstupn\u00ed) \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady sr\u00e1\u017eek a teploty vzduchu a pro kalibraci modelu i pozorovan\u00fd odtok. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee odtok pro \u00fazem\u00ed, pro kter\u00e9 chceme odhadovat slo\u017eky hydrologick\u00e9 bilance, nen\u00ed zn\u00e1m (jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du), je mo\u017en\u00e9 postupovat v z\u00e1sad\u011b dv\u011bma zp\u016fsoby:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">odvozen\u00ed odtoku pro z\u00e1jmov\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed pomoc\u00ed od\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed a s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed odtok\u016f z d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed, pop\u0159. s vyu\u017eit\u00edm hydrologick\u00e9 analogie (tj. p\u0159epo\u010det odtoku pomoc\u00ed velikosti plochy) nebo<\/li>\n<li lang=\"cs-CZ\">modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance pro d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed povod\u00ed a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch slo\u017eek na z\u00e1klad\u011b velikosti p\u0159ekryvu d\u00edl\u010d\u00edho povod\u00ed s povod\u00edm 3. \u0159\u00e1du.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Prvn\u00ed zp\u016fsob umo\u017enuje kalibraci hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu p\u0159\u00edmo pro povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b odtoky odvozen\u00e9 ode\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00edm pr\u016ftok\u016f z d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed jsou zna\u010dn\u011b ovlivn\u011bny chybami m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, v jejich\u017e d\u016fsledku \u010dasto doch\u00e1z\u00ed k v\u00fdskytu z\u00e1porn\u00fdch hodnot, a takto odvozen\u00e9 \u0159ady \u010dasto neumo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed spolehlivou kalibraci hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech je nezbytn\u00e9 m\u00edt k dispozici odtoky z povod\u00ed, kter\u00e1 jsou relevantn\u00ed pro posuzovan\u00e9 povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du. Zpravidla jde o povod\u00ed, kter\u00e1 alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00ed povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro \u00fa\u010dely t\u00e9to pr\u00e1ce jsme zvolili druh\u00fd zp\u016fsob, tj. pro ka\u017ed\u00e9 povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du jsou vyhled\u00e1na pozorovan\u00e1 povod\u00ed, kter\u00e1 maj\u00ed s posuzovan\u00fdm povod\u00edm spole\u010dnou plochu. Pro tato povod\u00ed jsou odvozeny \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady sr\u00e1\u017eek a teploty a je nakalibrov\u00e1n hydrologick\u00fd model Bilan. Jednotliv\u00e9 slo\u017eky hydrologick\u00e9 bilance pro povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du jsou pak spo\u010dteny jako v\u00e1\u017een\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br dot\u010den\u00fdch d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u00e1hy jsou \u00fam\u011brn\u00e9 plo\u0161e p\u0159ekryvu d\u00edl\u010d\u00edho povod\u00ed s povod\u00edm 3. \u0159\u00e1du.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro kalibraci hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu byly vyu\u017eity m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady sr\u00e1\u017eek a teploty pro obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132010. Tyto \u0159ady byly odvozeny z datasetu gridovan\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek a teploty v rozli\u0161en\u00ed 25 x 25\u2009km. Pro jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed byla interpolac\u00ed Thiessenov\u00fdmi polygony spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 sr\u00e1\u017eka na povod\u00ed, kter\u00e1 byla n\u00e1sledn\u011b korigov\u00e1na na z\u00e1klad\u011b vrstvy pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek (stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, rozli\u0161en\u00ed 1 x 1\u2009km, pro toto rozli\u0161en\u00ed byly k dispozici pouze dlouhodob\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry) tak, aby pr\u016fm\u011br sr\u00e1\u017eek pro povod\u00ed byl stejn\u00fd. Podobn\u011b byla korigov\u00e1na i teplota \u2013 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota na povod\u00ed z gridovan\u00e9 vrstvy byla opravena na z\u00e1klad\u011b rozd\u00edlu v nadmo\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ce odvozen\u00e9 z gridovan\u00e9 vrstvy a z digit\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu ter\u00e9nu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e byl uva\u017eov\u00e1n gradient teploty 0,65 \u00b0C\/100\u2009m.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro ka\u017ed\u00e9 z povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du (na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cR celkem 120 povod\u00ed) byla vybr\u00e1na pozorovan\u00e1 povod\u00ed aspo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnocen\u00e9 povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du. Pro povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du, pro kter\u00e1 nebyla \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed k dipozici (zejm\u00e9na mal\u00e1 povod\u00ed na hranic\u00edch republiky \u2013 celkem 19 povod\u00ed), byly analogony p\u0159i\u0159azeny ru\u010dn\u011b. Pro d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed povod\u00ed pak byla modelov\u00e1na hydrologick\u00e1 bilance pomoc\u00ed modelu Bilan. Pro v\u00fdpo\u010det v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 bilance (v\u00e1\u017een\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed) byla velikost p\u0159ekryvu d\u00edl\u010d\u00edho povod\u00ed s povod\u00edm 3. \u0159\u00e1du vzta\u017eena jednak k velikosti povod\u00ed 3.\u202f\u0159\u00e1du, jednak k velikosti d\u00edl\u010d\u00edho povod\u00ed. Ide\u00e1ln\u011b bychom cht\u011bli, aby cel\u00e9 povod\u00ed bylo pokryto d\u00edl\u010d\u00edm povod\u00edm a z\u00e1rove\u0148 aby d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed povod\u00ed nebylo v\u00fdznamn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du. Postup je podrobn\u011bji rozeps\u00e1n ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b Hanel aj., 2015b.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro v\u00fdpo\u010det hydrologick\u00e9 bilance byl pou\u017eit model Bilan s m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm krokem v\u00fdpo\u010dtu. Model m\u00e1 osm voln\u00fdch parametr\u016f, v\u00fdpo\u010dtem se modeluje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace, \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar, infiltrace do z\u00f3ny aerace, pr\u016fsak touto z\u00f3nou, z\u00e1soba vody ve sn\u011bhu, z\u00e1soba vody v p\u016fd\u011b a z\u00e1soba podzemn\u00ed vody. Odtok je modelov\u00e1n jako sou\u010det t\u0159\u00ed slo\u017eek \u2013 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho, hypotermick\u00e9ho a z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku (Hor\u00e1\u010dek, 2009; M\u00e1ca aj., 2013; Vizina a Hor\u00e1\u010dek, 2015).<\/p>\n<h3 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/h3>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Modelov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na hydrologickou bilanci bylo provedeno pro povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du cel\u00e9 \u010cR, za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem byla odvozena \u0159ada sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f zm\u011bny klimatu. Tyto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e byly zalo\u017eeny na 15 simulac\u00edch region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (RCM), kter\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdstupem projektu ENSEMBLES. Sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed tohoto souboru model\u016f jsou i referen\u010dn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e zm\u011bny klimatu, kter\u00e9 byly identifikov\u00e1ny v r\u00e1mci projektu TA02020320 Podpora dlouhodob\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a n\u00e1vrhu adapta\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed v oblasti vodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed v kontextu zm\u011bn klimatu. Tyto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e jsou d\u00e1le ozna\u010dov\u00e1ny jako rSCEN1 (pesimistick\u00fd), rSCEN2 (neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed) a rSCEN3 (optimistick\u00fd). Pr\u00e1v\u011b tyto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e byly pou\u017eity pro odhad zranitelnosti povod\u00ed z hlediska nedostatku vody. Tvorba sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny je podrobn\u011b pops\u00e1na ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b Hanel aj. (2015a), pou\u017eit\u00ed simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f pro hydrologick\u00e9 modelov\u00e1n\u00ed je pops\u00e1no v Hanel aj. (2010).<\/p>\n<h3 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Indexy zranitelnosti povod\u00ed<\/h3>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Pro porovn\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch povod\u00ed z hlediska zranitelnosti v\u016f\u010di nedostatku vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f byly pro ka\u017ed\u00e9 povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du stanoveny n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9 indexy, vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch \u0159ad. Vstupn\u00edmi daty pro jejich v\u00fdpo\u010det jsou pozorovan\u00e9 \u0159ady o u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vod spolu s \u0159adami potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace, sr\u00e1\u017eek, minim\u00e1ln\u00edho z\u016fstatkov\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku a 90\u2009% kvantilu pr\u016ftoku spolu s budouc\u00edmi \u0159adami podle sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny rSCEN1, rSCEN2 a rSCEN3 (Hanel aj., 2015a). Ka\u017ed\u00fd index byl spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n pro pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010, d\u00e1le pak pro v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 2021\u20132050 a 2071\u20132100, pro ka\u017ed\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165.<\/p>\n<h4 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Posuzovan\u00e9 indexy byly n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/h4>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-vzorec1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-826];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"247\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-427 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-vzorec1.jpg\" alt=\"zranitelne-oblasti-vzorec1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-vzorec1.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-vzorec1-300x74.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1000px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1000\/247;\" \/><\/a>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">V\u00fdsledky<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Na z\u00e1klad\u011b posouzen\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch zm\u011bn a odhadu zm\u011bn pro dv\u011b budouc\u00ed obdob\u00ed podle referen\u010dn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny a na z\u00e1klad\u011b souboru simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f lze konstatovat n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed. Pozorovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny obecn\u011b sp\u00ed\u0161e nejsou statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, v\u00fdjimkou je r\u016fst teploty (krom\u011b podzimu), zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed jarn\u00ed a ro\u010dn\u00ed evapotranspirace, zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed celkov\u00e9ho odtoku v zimn\u00edm obdob\u00ed v ji\u017en\u00edch \u010cech\u00e1ch a pokles z\u00e1soby vody v p\u016fd\u011b v jarn\u00edm obdob\u00ed. Pro \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2021\u20132050 \u010dasto nejsou projektovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm z hlediska vyhodnocen\u00ed cel\u00e9ho souboru klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jednotliv\u00fdch simulac\u00ed se statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bny projevuj\u00ed relativn\u011b \u010dasto. Pro vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2071\u20132100 jsou zm\u011bny v cel\u00e9m souboru model\u016f \u010dasto statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v jednotliv\u00fdch ro\u010dn\u00edch obdob\u00edch. Naopak zm\u011bny ro\u010dn\u00ed bilance jsou \u010dasto nejist\u00e9. Mezi robustn\u00ed zm\u011bny lze za\u0159adit zejm\u00e9na: r\u016fst teploty ve v\u0161ech ro\u010dn\u00edch obdob\u00edch, zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zimn\u00edch a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed letn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek, r\u016fst jarn\u00ed a zimn\u00ed evapotranspirace, pokles z\u00e1soby vody v p\u016fd\u011b v letn\u00edm obdob\u00ed, v ro\u010dn\u00ed bilanci a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b i v jarn\u00edm obdob\u00ed. Z hlediska ro\u010dn\u00ed bilance jsou zm\u011bny sr\u00e1\u017eek, celkov\u00e9ho a z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku zna\u010dn\u011b nejist\u00e9. Na <em>obr. 1<\/em> jsou vid\u011bt zm\u011bny ve sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1ch v souboru klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f pro \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2071\u20132100. Na <em>obr. 2<\/em> jsou uvedeny zm\u011bny celkov\u00e9ho odtoku pro \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2071\u20132100.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-826];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"901\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-422 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr1.jpg\" alt=\"zranitelne-oblasti-obr1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr1-266x300.jpg 266w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/901;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Obr. 1. Simulovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny sr\u00e1\u017eek v souboru klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (vlevo), graf vpravo ukazuje procento simulac\u00ed se statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami (na hladin\u011b v\u00fdznamnosti 0,1) k \u010dasov\u00e9mu horizontu 2071\u20132100<br \/>\nFig. 1. Simulated seasonal and annual mean changes in precipitation in the climate model ensemble (left), the percentage of statistically significant simulated changes (at the 0.1 significance level) for the time horizon 2071\u20132100<\/h6>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-826];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"869\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-423 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr2.jpg\" alt=\"zranitelne-oblasti-obr2\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr2-276x300.jpg 276w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/869;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Obr. 2. Simulovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny celkov\u00e9ho odtoku na povod\u00edch 3. \u0159\u00e1du pro \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2071\u20132100 (RM \u2013 modelovan\u00fd odtok)<br \/>\nFig. 2. Simulated changes in total runoff for the time horizon 2071\u20132100<\/h6>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">V\u00fdsledky modelov\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bn jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f hydrologick\u00e9 bilance, vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e9 indexy ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmi m\u00edru zranitelnosti povod\u00ed, byly dopln\u011bny o pr\u016fm\u011brnou hodnotu z index\u016f PP, WPP_ a WQ90_ (se\u010dteno a vyd\u011bleno t\u0159emi). V\u0161ech \u0161est v\u00fdsledn\u00fdch index\u016f bylo kategorizov\u00e1no do \u010dty\u0159 skupin na oblasti bezprobl\u00e9mov\u00e9, m\u00edrn\u011b, st\u0159edn\u011b a velmi zraniteln\u00e9 z hlediska dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. V\u00fdsledky pro pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed jako velmi zraniteln\u00e9 oblasti \u010cR ji\u017en\u00ed Moravu a z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st st\u0159edo\u010desk\u00e9ho kraje. V t\u011bchto oblastech jsou n\u00edzk\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky a vysok\u00e1 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace. V\u00fdsledky z projekc\u00ed pro roky 2021\u20132050 a 2071\u20132100 tyto oblasti roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed pro pesimistick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 (rSCEN1) a zanech\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro optimistick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny (rSCEN3). Je tedy z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee volba sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e je st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed neinklinuje ani nejoptimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Na <em>obr. 3<\/em> a\u017e <em>5<\/em> lze vid\u011bt mapy index\u016f zranitelnosti povod\u00ed pro pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010, sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rSCEN1 (2071\u20132100) a sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rSCEN3 (2071\u20132100). Podrobn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky jsou uvedeny ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b Hanel aj., 2015b.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-826];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"884\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-424 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr3.jpg\" alt=\"zranitelne-oblasti-obr3\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr3-271x300.jpg 271w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/884;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Obr. 3. Posouzen\u00ed zranitelnosti povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du z hlediska nedostatku vody pomoc\u00ed vybran\u00fdch index\u016f pro pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed (1981\u20132010)<br \/>\nFig. 3. Observed period (1981\u20132010)<\/h6>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr4.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-826];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"924\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-425 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr4.jpg\" alt=\"zranitelne-oblasti-obr4\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr4.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr4-260x300.jpg 260w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/924;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Obr. 4. Posouzen\u00ed zranitelnosti povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du z hlediska nedostatku vody pomoc\u00ed vybran\u00fdch index\u016f pro v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed (2071\u20132100) pro sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rSCEN1<br \/>\nFig. 4. Scenario period (2071\u20132100) for the rSCEN1 scenario<\/h6>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr5.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-826];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"895\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-426 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr5.jpg\" alt=\"zranitelne-oblasti-obr5\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr5.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/zranitelne-oblasti-obr5-268x300.jpg 268w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/895;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6 lang=\"cs-CZ\">Obr. 5. Posouzen\u00ed zranitelnosti povod\u00ed 3. \u0159\u00e1du z hlediska nedostatku vody pomoc\u00ed vybran\u00fdch index\u016f pro v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed (2071\u20132100) pro sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rSCEN3<br \/>\nFig. 5. Scenario period (2071\u20132100) for the rSCEN3 scenario<\/h6>\n<h2 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\">Na z\u00e1klad\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny byly modelov\u00e1ny p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 zm\u011bny z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f hydrologick\u00e9 bilance, a to pro \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty 2021\u20132050 a 2071\u20132100. V\u00fdsledky potvrzuj\u00ed dosavadn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy, a sice zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed teploty vzduchu a zm\u011bny v rozlo\u017een\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek v jednotliv\u00fdch ro\u010dn\u00edch obdob\u00edch. Tyto zm\u011bny vych\u00e1zej\u00ed statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na pro vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2071\u20132100. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 byly definov\u00e1ny indexy definuj\u00edc\u00ed zranitelnost oblasti povod\u00ed z hlediska mo\u017en\u00e9ho nedostatku vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. V pozorovan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010 byly ur\u010deny jako zraniteln\u00e9 oblasti ji\u017en\u00ed Morava a z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti st\u0159edo\u010desk\u00e9ho kraje. Modelovan\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky pro budouc\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty, je mo\u017eno \u0159\u00edci, toto varov\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u0159\u00edsnily a plo\u0161n\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily. Bylo potvrzeno, \u017ee ani v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed optimistick\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje klimatu nebude doch\u00e1zet k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed situace, co se t\u00fdk\u00e1 ohro\u017eenosti v\u016f\u010di nedostatku vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f.<\/p>\n<h3 lang=\"cs-CZ\" align=\"LEFT\">Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n<p lang=\"cs-CZ\"><em> \u010cl\u00e1nek vznikl na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdzkumu prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9ho v r\u00e1mci projektu Strategie ochrany p\u0159ed negativn\u00edmi dopady povodn\u00ed a erozn\u00edmi jevy p\u0159\u00edrod\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice, kter\u00fd je spolufinancov\u00e1n Evropskou uni\u00ed \u2013 Evropsk\u00fdm fondem pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed rozvoj, St\u00e1tn\u00edm fondem \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cR a Ministerstvem \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cR v r\u00e1mci Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e zm\u011bny klimatu byly vytvo\u0159eny v r\u00e1mci projektu TA02020320, kter\u00fd byl spolufinancov\u00e1n Technologickou agenturou \u010cR. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The article presents the applied methodology and description of the most important results achieved in the project.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":424,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[83,96,107,106],"coauthors":[124,34],"class_list":["post-826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-bilan-model","tag-climate-change","tag-droughts","tag-hydrological-balance"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=826"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30290,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/826\/revisions\/30290"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/424"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=826"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}