{"id":40559,"date":"2026-10-16T18:36:28","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T17:36:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/2026\/10\/simulace-teplotniho-rezimu-vodarenske-nadrze-v-podminkach-uvazovanych-klimatickych-zmen-2\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T23:13:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T22:13:34","slug":"simulace-teplotniho-rezimu-vodarenske-nadrze-v-podminkach-uvazovanych-klimatickych-zmen-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2026\/10\/simulace-teplotniho-rezimu-vodarenske-nadrze-v-podminkach-uvazovanych-klimatickych-zmen-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Simulation of the thermal regime of a&nbsp;drinking water reservoir under projected climate change conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"03NADPIS2\">ABSTRACT<\/h2>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.15pt;\">This paper examines the\u00a0potential impact of\u00a0projected climate change on the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0a\u00a0drinking-water reservoir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">The\u00a0methodology was based on simulating temperature changes in\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir using the\u00a0two-dimensional (2D) CE-QUAL-W2 software, which incorporates a\u00a0mathematical model for the\u00a0hydrodynamic simulation of\u00a0two-dimensional flow and water quality processes in\u00a0reservoirs. Its hydrodynamic component is based on the\u00a0laterally averaged three-dimensional equations of\u00a0motion. Simulations of\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime and water quality are performed by numerically solving the\u00a0turbulent advection\u2013diffusion equation. The\u00a0total heat exchange between the\u00a0water body and the\u00a0atmosphere is quantified based on air temperature, dew point temperature, absolute humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and the\u00a0geographical location of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir surface.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.15pt;\">The\u00a0potential impact on the\u00a0thermal regime was assessed using Vrchlice Reservoir as a\u00a0case study. The\u00a0model was calibrated for 2023 using detailed measurements of\u00a0vertical water temperature profiles at selected monitoring sites provided by the\u00a0Elbe River Water Authority; subsequent verification was carried out for 2022. To compare the\u00a0affected thermal regime with the\u00a0current state, 2018 was selected as the\u00a0reference year. The\u00a0observed daily air temperature series for 2018 was transformed using the\u00a0Advanced Delta Change (ADC) method to reflect changes derived from climate models for the\u00a02050 and 2085 horizons. The\u00a0scenario calculations presented in\u00a0this article isolate the\u00a0effect of\u00a0changes in\u00a0air temperature, while other meteorological and hydrological-operational inputs are kept at their 2018 reference levels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.15pt;\">The\u00a0results provide a\u00a0comparison of\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperatures in\u00a0characteristic vertical profiles for the\u00a0selected climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2085 with the\u00a0corresponding values for 2018, as well as a\u00a0similar comparison of\u00a0surface water temperatures.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"03NADPIS2\">INTRODUCTION<\/h2>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0issue of\u00a0the\u00a0potential impact on the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0a\u00a0drinking-water reservoir was addressed as part of\u00a0the\u00a0TA CR project <span class=\"01ITALIC\">Water Systems and Water Management in\u00a0the\u00a0Czech Republic under Climate Change Conditions<\/span> at the\u00a0Faculty of\u00a0Civil Engineering of\u00a0the\u00a0Czech Technical University in\u00a0Prague from 2020 to 2026. At the\u00a0beginning of\u00a0the\u00a0project, the\u00a0Vrchlice River basin\u00a0was selected as the\u00a0pilot basin; the\u00a0eponymous drinking-water reservoir is also located there. The\u00a0potential impact on the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0the\u00a0drinking-water reservoir was therefore assessed using this reservoir as a\u00a0case study.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Globally, lakes and reservoirs respond to climate change through rising water temperatures, changes in\u00a0the\u00a0duration and intensity of\u00a0thermal stratification, changes in\u00a0mixing regimes and, in\u00a0some cases, deterioration of\u00a0oxygen conditions. Model projections of\u00a0the\u00a0thermal structure of\u00a0reservoirs therefore provide an\u00a0important basis not only for assessing their physical regime, but also for subsequent assessments of\u00a0water quality and biogeochemical processes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0aim of\u00a0the\u00a0study is to quantify how the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0Vrchlice Reservoir may change near the\u00a0dam and at the\u00a0surface under climatic conditions representing the\u00a02050 and 2085 horizons and the\u00a0SSP2-4.5 and <span class=\"bezrozdlen\">SSP5-8.5<\/span> scenarios, and to compare these changes with the\u00a0reference year 2018. The\u00a0study addresses three questions: (i) how mean\u00a0and surface water temperatures change, (ii) how the\u00a0response differs between climate scenarios and time horizons, and (iii) what limitations need to be considered when interpreting the\u00a0results for water management practice. Vrchlice was selected as the\u00a0project\u2019s\u00a0pilot site and, at the\u00a0same time, as a\u00a0drinking-water reservoir with available vertical-profile measurements and operational data. The\u00a0practical benefit is the\u00a0provision of\u00a0a\u00a0basis for assessing possible future changes in\u00a0thermal conditions in\u00a0the\u00a0area of\u00a0drinking-water intakes and for subsequent assessment of\u00a0reservoir operation and water quality; the\u00a0methodological benefit is the\u00a0application of\u00a0a\u00a0laterally averaged 2D model to a\u00a0specific Czech drinking-water reservoir using a\u00a0set of\u00a0climate scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"03NADPIS2\">METHODOLOGY<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\" style=\"margin-top: 0cm;\">Theoretical analysis<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">A comprehensive comparison of reservoir models shows that CE-QUAL-W2 can simultaneously simulate water-surface elevation, flow, water temperature and selected water-quality parameters, while the choice of model must correspond to the geometry of the reservoir and the dominant physical processes [1]. Changes in the thermal regime of reservoirs under climate change conditions have been addressed, for example, in study [2]. Golub et al. [3] explicitly link projections of lake temperature and thermal structure with future modelling of oxygen, water quality, biogeochemical processes and algal blooms. Ferreira and Fernandes [4] addressed integrated modelling of river\u2013reservoir systems and the importance of linking hydrodynamics, water quality and reservoir operation. Higher temperatures and changes in hydrological extremes may also affect nutrient mobilisation, turbidity, concentrations of dissolved substances and other water-quality parameters [5]. Similarly, earlier case studies of proposed reservoirs show that combining\u00a0<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">monitoring, modelling of\u00a0pollutant loads and modelling of\u00a0reservoir response can\u00a0be used to forecast future trophic status and support decision-making\u00a0[6].<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">CE-QUAL-W2 was selected to simulate changes in\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0drinking-water reservoirs under projected climate change conditions. It consists of\u00a0a\u00a0model for the\u00a0hydrodynamic simulation of\u00a0two-dimensional flow and water quality processes in\u00a0reservoirs, developed by the\u00a0Department of\u00a0Civil and Environmental Engineering at Portland State University. The\u00a0model is available as free software for unrestricted use [7, 8]. Talebbeydokhti et al.\u00a0[1] reviewed the\u00a0monitoring and modelling of\u00a0water quality in\u00a0reservoirs, including the\u00a0capabilities and limitations of\u00a0CE-QUAL-W2.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">In\u00a0the\u00a0Czech context, hydrodynamic and water-quality modelling of\u00a0drinking-water reservoirs has also long been carried out by the\u00a0research team at the\u00a0Institute of\u00a0Hydrobiology of\u00a0the\u00a0Biology Centre of\u00a0the\u00a0Czech Academy of\u00a0Sciences, with the\u00a0involvement of\u00a0J. Hejzlar. For the\u00a0\u0158\u00edmov Reservoir, the\u00a0CE-QUAL-W2\u00a0model was used for two-dimensional modelling of\u00a0hydrodynamics and water quality\u00a0[9]. Subsequent work also examined the\u00a0potential impacts of\u00a0climate change on water quality in\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir\u00a0[10].<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">The\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0deeper drinking-water reservoirs has a\u00a0pronounced seasonal character: during the\u00a0warm part of\u00a0the\u00a0year, stable stratification may develop, with a\u00a0warmer surface layer and a\u00a0cooler hypolimnion, while during periods of\u00a0mixing, temperature differences within\u00a0the\u00a0water column decrease. For water management practice, the\u00a0temperature at the\u00a0intake level is particularly important because, together with stratification and oxygen conditions, it influences the\u00a0choice of\u00a0intake level and may be related to raw water quality. For ecological assessment, the\u00a0thermal regime is also important because of\u00a0its relationship with the\u00a0rates of\u00a0biological and biogeochemical processes [3, 9, 10].<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">The\u00a0preparation of\u00a0climate inputs was based on the\u00a0Advanced Delta Change (ADC) incremental method, which transforms observed series so that the\u00a0difference between the\u00a0reference and future series corresponds to changes derived from climate models\u00a0[11]. At a\u00a0daily time step, it is important that the\u00a0transformation captures not only changes in\u00a0the\u00a0mean\u00a0but also changes in\u00a0variability. This is particularly important for precipitation and extreme values, for which changes may not correspond to a\u00a0simple shift in\u00a0the\u00a0mean\u00a0value. For air temperature, the\u00a0transformation is performed linearly, meaning that systematic bias in\u00a0the\u00a0climate model does not have the\u00a0same significance for the\u00a0resulting temperature change as it does for precipitation\u00a0[11]. The\u00a0output consists of\u00a0daily series of\u00a0mean\u00a0air temperature and other hydroclimatological variables that can\u00a0be used for subsequent hydrological and water management modelling. For the\u00a0air temperature used in\u00a0this study, the\u00a0transformation preserves the\u00a0temporal structure of\u00a0the\u00a0reference year and applies the\u00a0change in\u00a0mean\u00a0and variability derived for the\u00a0given climate model, scenario and time horizon. Fo\u0161umpaur and Kov\u00e1\u010dov\u00e1\u00a0[12] addressed adaptive reservoir management during hydrological drought.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\">CE-QUAL-W2 software<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0solution is based on the\u00a0governing equations. The\u00a0hydrodynamic component consists of\u00a0the\u00a0laterally averaged longitudinal momentum equation, the\u00a0hydrostatic equation in\u00a0the\u00a0vertical direction, and the\u00a0continuity equation. The\u00a0CE-QUAL-W2\u00a0model uses the\u00a0hydrostatic approximation: because the\u00a0longitudinal dimension of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir is considerably greater than\u00a0its vertical dimension, vertical accelerations and shear stresses are neglected in\u00a0the\u00a0vertical momentum equation. The\u00a0vertical velocity component is not zero, however; it is included in\u00a0the\u00a0advection term of\u00a0the\u00a0longitudinal momentum equation and in\u00a0the\u00a0continuity equation. Lateral averaging assumes that lateral variations in\u00a0velocity, temperature and other water-quality parameters are negligible. It should be borne in\u00a0mind that this assumption may be inappropriate for large water bodies exhibiting significant lateral variations in\u00a0water quality.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">For a\u00a0horizontal longitudinal axis and neglecting the\u00a0longitudinal atmospheric pressure gradient, the\u00a0longitudinal momentum equation (1) and the\u00a0hydrostatic equation in\u00a0the\u00a0vertical direction (2) take the\u00a0following form:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40357 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"514\" height=\"62\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-1-300x36.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-1-768x93.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 514px) 100vw, 514px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 514px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 514\/62;\" \/> <\/a>(1)<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-40356 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-2-300x127.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"168\" height=\"71\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-2-300x127.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-2-768x325.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-2.jpg 800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 168px) 100vw, 168px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 168px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 168\/71;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(2)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>where:<\/p>\n<p>x, z\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0are\u00a0 \u00a0the coordinates in the longitudinal and vertical directions\u00a0[m]<\/p>\n<p><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><menclose notation=\"top\"><msub><mi>u<\/mi><mi>x<\/mi><\/msub><\/menclose><\/math><\/p>\n<p>the\u00a0laterally averaged longitudinal velocity component\u00a0[m\u00a0\u2219<sup>\u00a0<\/sup>s<sup>-1<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><menclose notation=\"top\"><msub><mi>u<\/mi><mi>z<\/mi><\/msub><\/menclose><\/math><\/p>\n<p>the\u00a0laterally averaged vertical velocity component\u00a0[m\u00a0\u2219<sup>\u00a0<\/sup>s<sup>-1<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>t\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0is\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 time [s]<\/p>\n<p>g\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0gravitational acceleration [m\u00a0\u2219<sup>\u00a0<\/sup>s<sup>-2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>r\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0density [kg\u00a0\u2219<sup>\u00a0<\/sup>m<sup>-3<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>p\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 pressure<\/p>\n<p>H\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0water-surface elevation [m]<\/p>\n<p>t<sub>xx<\/sub>, t<sub>xz<\/sub>\u00a0 \u00a0are\u00a0 turbulent shear stresses acting in\u00a0the\u00a0longitudinal direction [Pa]<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0integration limits extend from the\u00a0elevation to the\u00a0water surface at . A\u00a0condition for using the\u00a0governing equations formulated in\u00a0this way is that the\u00a0transverse velocity components are negligible compared with the\u00a0longitudinal and vertical components. They are therefore recommended for narrow and deep reservoirs, preferably with a\u00a0predominantly straight longitudinal alignment.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0choice of\u00a0a\u00a02D laterally averaged model for Vrchlice Reservoir was based on the\u00a0longitudinal character of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir. The\u00a0length of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir at maximum flows is approximately 4.8 km, while the\u00a0average bottom width in\u00a0the\u00a0model is approximately 200\u00a0m and the\u00a0maximum bottom width is 476\u00a0m; the\u00a0height of\u00a0the\u00a0dam above the\u00a0surrounding terrain\u00a0is almost 34\u00a0m. Given the\u00a0scale of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir, it can\u00a0therefore be expected that gradients along the\u00a0longitudinal axis and in\u00a0the\u00a0vertical direction are dominant when assessing the\u00a0longitudinal\u2013vertical temperature structure. This assumption does not, however, mean\u00a0that lateral inhomogeneities are negligible under all conditions. Uncertainty may be increased particularly by the\u00a0local effects of\u00a0side bays and tributaries, spatially variable wind effects, and conditions in\u00a0the\u00a0immediate vicinity of\u00a0the\u00a0intake structures. The\u00a0results therefore represent a\u00a0laterally averaged picture of\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime and should not be interpreted as a\u00a0substitute for a\u00a0fully three-dimensional description of\u00a0local flow and temperature structures [7, 8].<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0continuity equation (3) is given by:<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-40355 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-3-300x127.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"170\" height=\"72\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-3-300x127.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-3-768x325.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-3.jpg 800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 170px) 100vw, 170px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 170px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 170\/72;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(3)<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0governing diffusion equation for modelling temperature and water quality is\u00a0[13]:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-4.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40354 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-4-300x39.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"470\" height=\"61\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-4-300x39.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-4-768x100.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-4.jpg 800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 470px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 470\/61;\" \/> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/a>(4)<\/p>\n<p>where:<\/p>\n<p>\u03a6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 is\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 the\u00a0water temperature [\u00b0C]<\/p>\n<p>D<sub>x<\/sub>, D<sub>z<\/sub>\u00a0\u00a0 are\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0the\u00a0longitudinal and vertical dispersion coefficients\u00a0[m<sup>2<\/sup>\u00a0\u2219<sup>\u00a0<\/sup>s<sup>-1<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>From the\u00a0perspective of\u00a0external influences, the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir is predominantly affected by heat exchange between the\u00a0water surface and the\u00a0atmosphere. This consists of\u00a0a\u00a0number of\u00a0components; the\u00a0total heat flux is given by equation (5):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-5.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40545 size-medium lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-vzorec-5-300x39.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"39\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 300px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 300\/39;\" \/>\u00a0\u00a0<\/a>(5)<\/p>\n<p>where:<\/p>\n<p>q<sub>H<\/sub>\u00a0 \u00a0 is\u00a0 the\u00a0total heat flux between the\u00a0water surface and the\u00a0atmosphere [W\u2009\u2219\u2009m<sup>-2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>q<sub>1\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/sub>the\u00a0heat flux received from shortwave solar radiation [W\u2009\u2219\u2009m<sup>-2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>q<sub>2\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/sub>the\u00a0heat flux received from longwave radiation [W\u2009\u2219\u2009m<sup>-2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>q<sub>3\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/sub>the\u00a0heat flux by convection [W\u2009\u2219\u2009m<sup>-2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>q<sub>4\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/sub>the\u00a0heat loss through longwave radiation from the\u00a0water surface [W\u2009\u2219\u2009m<sup>-2]<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>q<sub>5\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/sub>the\u00a0heat flux due to heat loss through evaporation [W\u2009\u2219\u2009m<sup>-2<\/sup>]<\/p>\n<p>While the quantities q\u2081 and q\u2082 are independent of temperature, the remaining terms are functions of the water temperature at the surface and the air temperature. A&nbsp;number of well-established empirical equations are available for determining them.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\">Data for the\u00a0model<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0model solution is based on dividing the\u00a0reservoir longitudinally into interconnected segments. Each segment is defined by its length along the\u00a0reservoir axis, and its widths at selected elevations are then derived from a\u00a0digital terrain\u00a0model of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir bottom. To determine the\u00a0individual terms of\u00a0equation (5), the\u00a0model requires the\u00a0geographical location of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir and the\u00a0time series of\u00a0air temperature, dew point temperature, wind speed and direction, and cloud cover during the\u00a0period being modelled [7, 8].<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In\u00a0the\u00a0scenario calculations presented, climate change was applied only to air temperature. Dew point temperature, wind speed and direction, and cloud cover were kept unchanged in\u00a0the\u00a0scenario runs, using the\u00a02018 reference meteorological series. This deliberately isolates the\u00a0effect of\u00a0changes in\u00a0air temperature; at the\u00a0same time, it represents a\u00a0simplification, as future changes in\u00a0other meteorological variables are not included in\u00a0this study.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0boundary conditions are the\u00a0time series of\u00a0water inflow and outflow and the\u00a0water temperature at the\u00a0inflow, while the\u00a0initial conditions are the\u00a0initial water-surface elevation and water temperature in\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0pt;\">Water-quality simulations in\u00a0reservoirs using the\u00a0CE-QUAL-W2\u00a0model have been presented, for example, in\u00a0studies [9, 11, 14], while the\u00a0thermal regime under projected climate change conditions has been addressed in\u00a0studies [2, 10].<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\">The\u00a0model and its calibration<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0basis of\u00a0the\u00a0model developed for Vrchlice Reservoir was the\u00a0Bathymetry file, which defines the\u00a0geometric model of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir. It consisted of\u00a0a\u00a0total of\u00a041 segments of\u00a0varying length along the\u00a0reservoir axis, with the\u00a0longitudinal dimension of\u00a0the\u00a0segments being approximately 100\u00a0m. The\u00a0varying widths of\u00a0the\u00a0individual layers were derived at 1\u00a0m elevation intervals throughout the\u00a0water column in\u00a0the\u00a0Baltic height system after adjustment. An\u00a0example of\u00a0the\u00a0location of\u00a0the\u00a0computational segment axes is shown in\u00a0red against the\u00a0background of\u00a0the\u00a0national map from \u010c\u00daZK\u00a0[15] in<em>\u00a0<span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a01<\/span><\/em>. The\u00a0maximum bottom widths ranged from 55\u00a0m in\u00a0segment 1 to 476\u00a0m in\u00a0segment 39, with an\u00a0average of\u00a0200\u00a0m for the\u00a0reservoir as a\u00a0whole.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40352 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"945\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-1-254x300.jpg 254w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-1-768x907.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/945;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 1. Vrchlice Reservoir on the Vrchlice river, southwest of Kutn\u00e1 Hora, showing the vertical profiles used for measuring water temperature and other water-quality parameters and the axes of the computational segments<\/h6>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0calibration of\u00a0the\u00a02D model was carried out for 2023, when numerical simulations of\u00a0the\u00a0development of\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0Vrchlice Reservoir were performed using meteorological data from the\u00a0Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) stations at Chotusice and Vav\u0159inec and their mean\u00a0values (mean\u00a0daily values). The\u00a0Chotusice station is located 12 km east of\u00a0Vrchlice Reservoir near \u010c\u00e1slav military airfield, while the\u00a0Vav\u0159inec station is 14 km west, near the\u00a0village of\u00a0Uhl\u00ed\u0159sk\u00e9 Janovice. The\u00a0time series of\u00a0water inflow into the\u00a0reservoir was calculated from the\u00a0time series of\u00a0water outflow and reservoir water-surface elevation. For the\u00a0unknown water temperature at the\u00a0inflow, a\u00a0typical annual profile was estimated using water temperature measurements at vertical profile 1 at the\u00a0beginning of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir impoundment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0pt;\">The\u00a0hydrological input in\u00a0the\u00a0application presented was expressed as the\u00a0total inflow calculated from the\u00a0water balance between outflow and the\u00a0change in\u00a0the\u00a0water storage volume in\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir. The\u00a0individual inflows are therefore not assessed separately in\u00a0this article, and their potential spatial temperature heterogeneity represents one of\u00a0the\u00a0limitations of\u00a0the\u00a0model simplification. The\u00a0outflow condition was based on operational data; in\u00a0the\u00a0years assessed, the\u00a0uppermost of\u00a0the\u00a0three intake levels was used according to the\u00a0reservoir operator, and this was taken into account in\u00a0the\u00a0model. The\u00a0effect of\u00a0selecting an\u00a0alternative intake level was not included in\u00a0the\u00a0scenarios presented here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0calibration step was carried out for 2023. The\u00a0meteorological input variants from the\u00a0Chotusice and Vav\u0159inec stations and their average were compared; agreement was assessed based on the\u00a0vertical temperature profiles at verticals 8 and 9 and the\u00a0difference between their mean\u00a0temperatures. The\u00a0best agreement was achieved using data from the\u00a0Chotusice station.<em> <span class=\"01ITALIC\">Figs.\u00a02<\/span><\/em> to\u00a0<em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">5<\/span><\/em> show representative comparisons for 17\u00a0April 2023, when summer stratification had already developed, and 28\u00a0August 2023, when summer stratification was fully developed.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-2-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40951 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-2-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"343\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-2-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-2-2-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-2-2-768x329.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/343;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 2. Comparison of measured and simulated water temperature profiles at vertical profile 8 on 17 April 2023, based on measurements provided by the Elbe River Water Authority and simulations using the CE-QUAL-W2 model<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-3-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40952 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-3-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"343\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-3-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-3-2-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-3-2-768x329.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/343;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 3. Comparison of measured and simulated water temperature profiles at vertical profile 9 on 17 April 2023, based on measurements provided by the Elbe River Water Authority and simulations using the CE-QUAL-W2 model<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-4-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40953 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-4-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"343\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-4-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-4-2-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-4-2-768x329.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/343;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 4. Comparison of measured and simulated water temperature profiles at vertical profile 8 on 28 August 2023, based on measurements provided by the Elbe River Water Authority and simulations using the CE-QUAL-W2 model<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-5-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40954 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-5-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"343\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-5-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-5-2-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-5-2-768x329.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/343;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 5. Comparison of measured and simulated water temperature profiles at vertical profile 9 on 28 August 2023, based on measurements provided by the Elbe River Water Authority and simulations using the CE-QUAL-W2 model<\/h6>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">For parameters for which separate site-specific calibration data were not available, the\u00a0default settings based on the\u00a0example CE-QUAL-W2 configurations were retained. As part of\u00a0this study, no comprehensive multi-criteria optimisation of\u00a0all model parameters or separate sensitivity analysis of\u00a0wind sheltering, terrain\u00a0shading of\u00a0solar radiation, or evaporation parameterisation was performed. These factors are therefore taken into account below as sources of\u00a0uncertainty in\u00a0the\u00a0results.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Subsequent verification was carried out for 2022 using the\u00a0same model settings. The\u00a0agreement between the\u00a0vertical temperature profiles was comparable to that achieved for the\u00a02023 calibration year. However, standard quantitative metrics such as RMSE or MAE were not calculated as part of\u00a0the\u00a0available assessment; the\u00a0calibration and verification results must therefore be understood as a\u00a0qualitative to semi-quantitative assessment of\u00a0profile agreement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Measurements from 2024 were available to the\u00a0researchers as part of\u00a0a\u00a0broader project but were not included in\u00a0the\u00a0calibration and verification dataset presented here. Their use together with measurements from additional dates would provide a\u00a0suitable basis for subsequent independent validation and quantitative assessment of\u00a0the\u00a0model.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\">Numerical experiments and scenarios<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The aim of the numerical experiments was to assess the potential impact of the projected climate changes on the thermal regime of the drinking-water reservoir. For this purpose, future periods centred on 2050 (2036\u20132065) and\u00a0<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">\u00a0<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">2085 (2071\u20132100) were selected. The\u00a0year 2018 was used as the\u00a0reference meteorological and hydrological period against which the\u00a0results were compared. The\u00a0year 2018 was not selected as a\u00a0representative average year for the\u00a0current climate period, but deliberately as a\u00a0reference year representing a\u00a0stress condition. It was characterised by a\u00a0combination of\u00a0above-average temperatures and dry conditions, which may be regarded as analogous to more frequent episodes in\u00a0the\u00a0future. Its use therefore makes it possible to assess further changes in\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir under the\u00a0climate scenarios against an\u00a0already relatively unfavourable baseline condition. At the\u00a0same time, continuous input series required for setting up and evaluating the\u00a0model simulations were available for 2018. The\u00a0designation of\u00a0the\u00a0years 2050 and 2085 refers to the\u00a0midpoints of\u00a0the\u00a030-year periods 2036\u20132065 and 2071\u20132100, respectively. The\u00a0transformation of\u00a0the\u00a02018 time series using the\u00a0Advanced Delta Change method is described in\u00a0the\u00a0section Projected climate changes. The\u00a0aim of\u00a0the\u00a0first set of\u00a0calculations was to assess the\u00a0potential impact on the\u00a0thermal regime resulting solely from the\u00a0assumed changes in\u00a0air temperature. Water inflows and withdrawals for both 2050 and 2085 were assumed to be the\u00a0same as in\u00a02018, when the\u00a0water level in\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir remained close to the\u00a0storage level for almost the\u00a0entire year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">As part of\u00a0the\u00a0wider project, a\u00a0second set of\u00a0calculations was also carried out, building on the\u00a0outputs of\u00a0Fo\u0161umpaur\u00a0[12], in\u00a0which the\u00a0water level was assumed to follow the\u00a0DG3 operating curve under minimum water withdrawals. As the\u00a0results of\u00a0this variant are neither presented nor discussed in\u00a0this article, this scenario is not included in\u00a0the\u00a0set evaluated below and will be reported separately in\u00a0the\u00a0final TA CR project report.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\">Description of\u00a0the\u00a0location<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Vrchlice Reservoir was selected for modelling the\u00a0impact of\u00a0projected climate changes on its thermal regime. It is located on the\u00a0eponymous watercourse southwest of\u00a0Kutn\u00e1 Hora and is impounded by a\u00a0concrete dam. The\u00a0dam crest is at an\u00a0elevation of\u00a0325.80\u00a0m a.s.l., while the\u00a0spillway crest is at 323.80\u00a0m a.s.l., which is also the\u00a0elevation of\u00a0the\u00a0storage level. The\u00a0height of\u00a0the\u00a0dam above the\u00a0surrounding terrain\u00a0is almost 34\u00a0m. The\u00a0reservoir length at maximum flows is 4.8 km, the\u00a0flooded area at the\u00a0storage level is 0.935 km\u00b2, and the\u00a0storage volume is 7.89\u00a0million m\u00b3. The\u00a0location of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir is shown in\u00a0<em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a01<\/span><\/em>. The\u00a0dam is equipped with a\u00a0three-level intake structure. In\u00a0the\u00a0years assessed, only the\u00a0upper intake was used, according to the\u00a0reservoir operator, and this was taken into account in\u00a0the\u00a0model.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0reservoir is operated by the\u00a0Labe River Water Authority, which has recently been carrying out detailed vertical-profile measurements of\u00a0a\u00a0range of\u00a0water-quality parameters several times a\u00a0year on a\u00a0regular basis, including water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration. Measurements are routinely carried out at 10 vertical profiles, the\u00a0locations of\u00a0which are shown in\u00a0<em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a01<\/span><\/em>. As part of\u00a0the\u00a0collaboration, the\u00a0researchers were provided with the\u00a0results of\u00a0vertical-profile measurements carried out in\u00a02022, 2023 and 2024. Daily data on reservoir outflow, water level and air temperature measured at\u00a07\u00a0a.m. were also available for 2018, 2022, 2023, and 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Projected climate changes<\/h3>\n<p>The\u00a0projected climatic conditions used to simulate the\u00a0thermal regime of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir were derived from the\u00a0methodology and data outputs of\u00a0Work Package WP 1, Partial Objective DC 1.2 of\u00a0the\u00a0Water Centre project, which focuses on identifying areas with water resource deficits and modelling water availability under current and future conditions [11, 16]. The\u00a0CE-QUAL-W2\u00a0model was not supplied directly with raw outputs from climate models, but with adjusted meteorological series based on the\u00a0observed reference climate and changes in\u00a0climate variables derived for the\u00a0selected future time horizons. The\u00a0projected climate was derived primarily from simulations by global climate models from the\u00a0Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), supplemented by the\u00a0regional ALADIN-CLIMATE\/CZ model. The\u00a0dataset comprises six global models (CMCC-ESM2, EC-EARTH3, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0 and TAIESM1) and the\u00a0regional ALADIN-CLIMATE\/CZ model; the\u00a0individual models differ in\u00a0their spatial resolution and in\u00a0the\u00a0availability of\u00a0Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios\u00a0[11]. For the\u00a0purposes of\u00a0this study, the\u00a0SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used, representing an\u00a0intermediate future development pathway and a\u00a0more emissions-intensive pathway based on high reliance on fossil fuels, respectively. These two scenarios make it possible to compare a\u00a0more moderate and a\u00a0more pronounced response of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir\u2019s\u00a0thermal regime to climate change.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0preparation of\u00a0climate inputs was based on the\u00a0incremental Advanced Delta Change (ADC) method, which transforms observed meteorological series so that the\u00a0change between the\u00a0reference and future series corresponds to changes derived from climate models\u00a0[11]. The\u00a0method allows not only changes in\u00a0mean\u00a0values but\u00a0also changes in\u00a0variability to be taken into account. This is particularly important for precipitation and extreme values, for which future changes may not correspond to a\u00a0simple shift in\u00a0the\u00a0mean. In\u00a0the\u00a0case of\u00a0air temperature, the\u00a0transformation is performed linearly, thereby limiting the\u00a0influence of\u00a0systematic climate-model bias on the\u00a0resulting change in\u00a0temperature.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0reference climate period was 1991\u20132020, with 2018 selected as the\u00a0specific baseline year for the\u00a0simulations. The\u00a0future time horizons do not represent simulations of\u00a0individual calendar years, but 30-year periods, 2036\u20132065 and 2071\u20132100, which are referred to in\u00a0the\u00a0following text, for simplicity, as the\u00a02050 and 2085 horizons. For each climate model and scenario, the\u00a0ADC method was used to determine the\u00a0changes between the\u00a0reference period 1991\u20132020 and the\u00a0respective future period. These changes were subsequently applied to the\u00a0observed meteorological series for 2018. The\u00a0resulting scenario series thus retain\u00a0the\u00a0temporal sequence and characteristic pattern of\u00a0the\u00a0baseline year, while their level and variability are adjusted to correspond to the\u00a0climatic conditions projected for the\u00a02050 and 2085 horizons.<\/p>\n<p>The climate series used for the Vrchlice Reservoir simulations are based on the HYMOD-KZ database [16], which provides selected hydrological and climatic variables for different SSP scenarios, climate models and time horizons. For the scenario simulations, mean daily air temperature series for the 2050 (2036\u20132065) and 2085 (2071\u20132100) horizons were used as inputs to the calculation of heat exchange between the water surface and the atmosphere. The aim was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the thermal regime of the reservoir. The SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and the climate models CMCC-ESM2, EC-EARTH3, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, TAIESM1 and ALADIN-CLIMATE\/CZ were selected for the analysis (mean daily air temperatures are shown in <em>Fig. 6)<\/em>. The year 2018 was selected as the reference year, against which the adjusted temperature series for the future horizons were subsequently compared. A&nbsp;comparison of mean daily air temperatures for the 2050 horizon under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for all the models listed above with the reference year 2018 is shown in <em>Fig. 7<\/em>.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-6-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40955 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-6-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"510\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-6-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-6-2-300x191.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-6-2-768x490.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/510;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 6. Monthly mean daily air temperature for the available climate models, scenarios, and time horizons; 2018 represents the reference series<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-7-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40956 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-7-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"442\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-7-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-7-2-300x166.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-7-2-768x424.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/442;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>Fig. 7. Comparison of simulated mean air temperature time series from May to early October 2050 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for all models listed above with 2018 as\u00a0the\u00a0reference year<\/h6>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.2pt;\">As shown in\u00a0<em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a07<\/span><\/em>, the\u00a0individual climate models provide relatively similar projected mean\u00a0daily air temperature patterns for the\u00a02050 horizon, although these differ from the\u00a0pattern observed in\u00a02018, which included, for example, a\u00a0relatively cold second half of\u00a0June and, conversely, high temperatures around 20\u00a0September.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3\">Results of\u00a0simulations of\u00a0the\u00a0potential impact on\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Because the projected mean daily air temperatures for the selected horizons and scenarios showed a&nbsp;similar seasonal pattern across the climate models, the averages of the results from the seven-model ensemble are presented\u00a0<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">below for clarity. For the\u00a0subsequent presentation, results for the\u00a0segment located 200\u00a0m upstream of\u00a0the\u00a0Vrchlice Reservoir dam were selected, i.e. close to the\u00a0drinking-water intakes located within\u00a0the\u00a0dam structure. The\u00a0model calibration results showed sufficient agreement between the\u00a0measurements and the\u00a0simulated temperature profile produced by the\u00a0CE-QUAL-W2\u00a0model.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><em><span class=\"01ITALIC\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Fig.\u00a08<\/span><\/span><\/em><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> shows the\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperature profile 200\u00a0m upstream of\u00a0the\u00a0dam for 2018 and the\u00a0mean\u00a0values obtained by averaging the\u00a0water temperature results from simulations using the\u00a0individual global models for the\u00a02050 (MEAN\u00a02050) and 2085 (MEAN 2085) horizons under the\u00a0SSP2-4.5 scenario. <em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a09<\/span> <\/em>shows the\u00a0increases in\u00a0mean\u00a0daily water temperature at this profile for the\u00a02050 and 2085 horizons compared with 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><em><span class=\"01ITALIC\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Figs. 10<\/span><\/span><\/em><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> and <em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">11<\/span><\/em> were prepared in\u00a0the\u00a0same way, this time using the\u00a0results of\u00a0simulations for the\u00a0SSP5-8.5 scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-8-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40958 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-8-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"415\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-8-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-8-2-300x156.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-8-2-768x398.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/415;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 8. Comparison of mean water temperatures at the profile 200&nbsp;m upstream of Vrchlice Reservoir dam, based on the average results of simulations using individual climate models for the 2050 and 2085 horizons under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, with 2018 as the reference year<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-9-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40957 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-9-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"415\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-9-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-9-2-300x156.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-9-2-768x398.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/415;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 9. Increase in mean water temperatures at the profile 200&nbsp;m upstream of the Vrchlice Reservoir dam, based on the average results of simulations using individual climate models for the 2050 and 2085 horizons under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, compared with 2018<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-10.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40343 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-10.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"416\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-10.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-10-300x156.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-obr-10-768x399.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/416;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 10. Comparison of mean water temperatures at the profile 200&nbsp;m upstream of Vrchlice Reservoir dam, based on the average results of simulations using individual climate models for the 2050 and 2085 horizons under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with 2018 as the reference year<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-11-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40960 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-11-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"447\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-11-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-11-2-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-fig-11-2-768x429.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/447;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Fig. 11. Increase in mean water temperatures at the profile 200&nbsp;m upstream of the Vrchlice Reservoir dam, based on the average results of simulations using individual climate models for the 2050 and 2085 horizons under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, compared with 2018<\/h6>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Another interesting output is a&nbsp;comparison of the mean maximum water temperatures occurring from the beginning of May to the end of September at the water surface in the profile 200&nbsp;m upstream of the dam, based on CE-QUAL-W2 simulations for 2018 and for the 2050 and 2085 horizons under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, using the seven climate models and their ensemble mean (MEAN), as shown in <em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Tab.\u00a01<\/span><\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>Tab. 1. Average surface water temperatures from the beginning of May to the end of September at the profile 200&nbsp;m upstream of Vrchlice Reservoir dam, based on simulations using the CE-QUAL-W2 model for the reference year 2018 and the 2050 and 2085 horizons under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, using seven climate models and their ensemble mean<\/h5>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-tab-1-3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-40559];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-40961 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-tab-1-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"477\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-tab-1-3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-tab-1-3-300x179.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Havlik-tab-1-3-768x458.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/477;\" \/><\/a>\n<h2 class=\"03NADPIS3\">Assessment of\u00a0the\u00a0results and discussion<\/h2>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0results of\u00a0the\u00a0simulations performed using the\u00a0two-dimensional mathematical CE-QUAL-W2\u00a0model to assess potential changes in\u00a0thermal conditions in\u00a0drinking-water reservoirs confirmed the\u00a0expected patterns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">For the\u00a0SSP2-4.5 scenario, <em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a08<\/span> <\/em>indicates that, for the\u00a0model year corresponding to the\u00a02050 climate horizon, an\u00a0increase in\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperature of\u00a0approximately 0.5&nbsp;\u00b0C can\u00a0be expected in\u00a0the\u00a0area near the\u00a0dam, where the\u00a0maximum depths occur, with increases of\u00a0up to 1.5&nbsp;\u00b0C compared with the\u00a0reference year 2018. For the\u00a0model year corresponding to the\u00a02085 climate horizon, the\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperature is expected to increase by at least 1&nbsp;\u00b0C throughout the\u00a0profile, and locally by more than\u00a02&nbsp;\u00b0C.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">If the\u00a0SSP5-8.5 scenario were to prove realistic, much more pronounced changes would occur. According to <em><span class=\"01ITALIC\">Fig.\u00a010<\/span><\/em>, for the\u00a0model year corresponding to the\u00a02050 climate horizon, the\u00a0increase in\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperature would range from 1.0 to 2.0 \u00b0C, while for the\u00a0model year corresponding to the\u00a02085 climate horizon, it would range from 1.5 to 2.5&nbsp;\u00b0C.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"letter-spacing: -.1pt;\">In\u00a0addition to a\u00a0sustained increase in\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperature in\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir, a\u00a0significant increase in\u00a0surface water temperature can\u00a0also be expected, as shown in\u00a0<span class=\"01ITALIC\">Tab.\u00a01<\/span>. Surface water temperatures may increase by more than\u00a01&nbsp;\u00b0C on average by the\u00a02050 horizon compared with 2018, and by as much as 2.5&nbsp;\u00b0C by the\u00a02085 horizon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0observed increase in\u00a0water temperature may also have implications for the\u00a0oxygen regime of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir. A\u00a0long-term analysis of\u00a0temperate lakes, in\u00a0which J. Hejzlar was also involved, demonstrated a\u00a0widespread decline in\u00a0dissolved oxygen concentrations; in\u00a0deeper layers, this decline was associated primarily with increasing thermal stratification and declining water transparency. The\u00a0issue of\u00a0oxygen deficits has also been addressed under Czech conditions, for example in\u00a0\u0158\u00edmov Reservoir. In\u00a0Vrchlice Reservoir, warming and a\u00a0possible extension of\u00a0the\u00a0stratification period can\u00a0therefore be expected to increase the\u00a0risk of\u00a0oxygen deficiency in\u00a0the\u00a0hypolimnion, with the\u00a0specific response also depending on the\u00a0trophic status of\u00a0the\u00a0reservoir, organic matter inputs and the\u00a0hydrological regime.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In\u00a0terms of\u00a0the\u00a0direction of\u00a0change, the\u00a0results are consistent with published studies that project increasing water temperatures and changes in\u00a0thermal stratification in\u00a0reservoirs and lakes under a\u00a0warming climate [2, 3, 10]. Direct quantitative comparison with other reservoirs is, however, limited because the\u00a0response depends on geometry, hydrological regime, water abstraction operations, meteorological forcing and the\u00a0way climate scenarios are constructed. The\u00a0values reported for Vrchlice Reservoir therefore cannot be directly extrapolated to other drinking-water reservoirs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0differences in\u00a0water-temperature increases between the\u00a02050 and 2085 horizons cannot be interpreted as a\u00a0simple linear translation of\u00a0changes in\u00a0air temperature into changes in\u00a0water temperature. CE-QUAL-W2 calculates the\u00a0overall heat balance at the\u00a0water surface and the\u00a0longitudinal\u2013vertical distribution of\u00a0heat; the\u00a0resulting mean\u00a0or maximum temperature is therefore also influenced by the\u00a0seasonal pattern of\u00a0the\u00a0reference year, stratification, mixing, depth and outflow conditions. Moreover, the\u00a0scenario series retain\u00a0the\u00a0temporal structure of\u00a02018 and modify only air temperature. Non-linear differences between the\u00a0selected summary indicators are therefore possible, but their physical interpretation must take these limitations into account.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0uncertainty in\u00a0the\u00a0results arises from several sources: the\u00a0spread among climate models, the\u00a0choice of\u00a0the\u00a0exceptionally warm and dry year 2018 as the\u00a0stress-condition reference year, keeping the\u00a0other meteorological variables and hydrological-operational conditions at their 2018\u00a0levels, the\u00a0lateral averaging inherent in\u00a0the\u00a02D model, the\u00a0aggregated representation of\u00a0inflows, and the\u00a0limited calibration and verification assessment without standard quantitative metrics. The\u00a0results should therefore be understood as scenario-based estimates of\u00a0the\u00a0sensitivity of\u00a0the\u00a0thermal regime to changes in\u00a0air temperature, rather than\u00a0as a\u00a0deterministic prediction of\u00a0future conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"03NADPIS2\">CONCLUSION<\/h2>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Numerical simulations showed that, with the\u00a0hydrological-operational conditions of\u00a0the\u00a02018 reference year kept unchanged, increases in\u00a0air temperature under the\u00a0climate scenarios considered would lead to warming of\u00a0the\u00a0water both in\u00a0the\u00a0area 200\u00a0m upstream of\u00a0Vrchlice Reservoir dam and at the\u00a0water surface. Under SSP2-4.5, an\u00a0increase in\u00a0mean\u00a0water temperature of\u00a0approximately 0.5&nbsp;\u00b0C was simulated for the\u00a02050 horizon, with local increases of\u00a0up to around\u00a01.5 \u00b0C, while for the\u00a02085 horizon, the\u00a0increase was generally at least around 1&nbsp;\u00b0C and locally exceeded 2&nbsp;\u00b0C. Under SSP5-8.5, the\u00a0changes were more pronounced, ranging from approximately 1.0 to 2.0&nbsp;\u00b0C for the\u00a02050 horizon and from 1.5 to 2.5\u00a0\u00b0C for the\u00a02085 horizon. The\u00a0average maximum surface water temperature from May to September increased from 21.6&nbsp;\u00b0C in\u00a0the\u00a0reference year to 22.8\u00a0\u00b0C for the\u00a02050 horizon and 24.1&nbsp;\u00b0C for the\u00a02085 horizon and the\u00a0global model ensemble mean\u00a0under the\u00a0SSP2-8.5 scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0practical significance of\u00a0the\u00a0study lies in\u00a0highlighting that warming may alter temperature conditions in\u00a0the\u00a0area of\u00a0the\u00a0drinking-water intakes and increase the\u00a0risk of\u00a0unfavourable oxygen conditions during the\u00a0stratified period. The\u00a0results can\u00a0serve as a\u00a0screening-level basis for the\u00a0reservoir operator and for further analyses of\u00a0operational options, particularly in\u00a0relation to the\u00a0choice of\u00a0intake level and the\u00a0assessment of\u00a0water quality.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTenglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Interpretation is limited by the\u00a0fact that the\u00a0scenarios isolate the\u00a0effect of\u00a0changes in\u00a0air temperature while other meteorological and hydrological-operational inputs are kept at their 2018\u00a0levels, the\u00a0model uses lateral averaging, and the\u00a0calibration and verification results were not quantified using standard error metrics. Further work should use a\u00a0broader set of\u00a0measurements, including those from 2024, carry out quantitative validation and sensitivity analysis of\u00a0model parameters, incorporate changes in\u00a0other meteorological and hydrological variables, and separately assess scenarios involving changes in\u00a0water level and intake levels.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"03NADPIS3literaturapodekovaniautori\">Acknowledgements<\/h3>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><em><span class=\"01ITALIC\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">This paper was produced with the\u00a0support of\u00a0the\u00a0Technology Agency of\u00a0the\u00a0Czech Republic (project No. SS02030027, Water Systems and Water Management in\u00a0the\u00a0Czech Republic under Climate Change Conditions, 2020\u20132026). The\u00a0topic was addressed under Partial Objective 3.4, Changes in\u00a0the\u00a0operation or expansion of\u00a0the\u00a0storage capacity of\u00a0existing water or dry detention reservoirs.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"00TEXTbezodsazenienglish\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The\u00a0Czech version of\u00a0this article was peer-reviewed, the\u00a0English version was translated from the\u00a0Czech original by Environmental Translation Ltd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The potential impact on the thermal regime was assessed using Vrchlice Reservoir as a&nbsp;case study. The model was calibrated for 2023 using detailed measurements of vertical water temperature profiles at selected monitoring sites provided by the Elbe River Water Authority; subse-quent verification was carried out for 2022. To compare the affected thermal regime with the current state, 2018 was selected as the reference year. The observed daily air temperature series for 2018 was transformed using the Advanced Delta Change (ADC) method to reflect changes derived from climate models for the 2050 and 2085 horizons. The scenario calculations presented in this article isolate the effect of changes in air temperature, while other meteorological and hydrological-operational inputs are kept at their 2018 reference levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":40558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[94,86],"tags":[96,4241,4240,301,1928],"coauthors":[1897,27,3593],"class_list":["post-40559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-issue","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-climate-change","tag-drinking-water-reservoir","tag-temperature-profile","tag-water-quality","tag-water-temperature"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40559"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40559\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41077,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40559\/revisions\/41077"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40559"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=40559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}