{"id":3698,"date":"2017-08-10T11:37:22","date_gmt":"2017-08-10T11:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=3698"},"modified":"2024-07-16T12:19:39","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T11:19:39","slug":"regionalization-of-deficit-runoff-volumes-in-the-czech-republic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2017\/08\/regionalization-of-deficit-runoff-volumes-in-the-czech-republic\/","title":{"rendered":"Regionalization of deficit runoff volumes in the Czech Republic"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Souhrn<\/h2>\n

C\u00edlem t\u00e9to studie je regionalizace \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky z\u00a0hlediska rizika v\u00fdskytu sucha v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch povod\u00edch. Regionalizace \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky byla provedena pro sadu 133 (mezi-)povod\u00ed pro obdob\u00ed 1901\u20132015. Prim\u00e1rn\u00edm indexem popisuj\u00edc\u00edm sucho v\u00a0r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to studie jsou nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy vzhledem k\u00a0prahu odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edmu 20% kvantilu m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016ftok\u016f. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek, v\u00fdparu, celkov\u00e9ho a\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku a\u00a0hydrogeologick\u00fdch rajon\u016f byla pomoc\u00ed shlukov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy provedena regionalizace \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky z\u00a0hlediska chov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0dob\u011b sucha. Tato regionalizace byla n\u00e1sledn\u011b expertn\u011b revidov\u00e1na. Nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy v\u00a0simulaci modelu Bilan byly vy\u010d\u00edsleny a\u00a0byl vytvo\u0159en statistick\u00fd model pro odhad N-let\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f. Charakteristiky sucha v\u00a0simulaci modelu Bilan pro povod\u00ed s\u00a0dostupn\u00fdmi pozorovan\u00fdmi daty i\u00a0v\u00fdsledky statistick\u00e9ho modelu byly \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b validov\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n\"Ilustracni-fotografie-1\"<\/a>\n

\u00davod<\/h2>\n

Odhad charakteristik sucha, v\u010detn\u011b regionalizace jeho v\u00fdskytu, je zat\u00ed\u017een zna\u010dnou nejistotou. Tato nejistota je, oproti anal\u00fdze extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek, nav\u00edc zn\u00e1sobena skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee sucho se nevyskytuje ka\u017ed\u00fd rok a\u00a0efektivn\u00ed d\u00e9lka standardn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch 30\u201350let\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad je ve skute\u010dnosti p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b polovi\u010dn\u00ed, v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sucha se vyskytuj\u00ed pouze v\u00a0mal\u00e9m zlomku let. Ve studii popsan\u00e9 v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku jsou proto vyu\u017eity dv\u011b strategie pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nejistot odhad\u016f charakteristik sucha.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve vyu\u017eit\u00ed dlouh\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0teploty (1901\u20132015), kter\u00e9 jsou dostupn\u00e9 v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm kroku a\u00a0prostorov\u00e9m rozli\u0161en\u00ed 0,5\u00b0 pro cel\u00fd sv\u011bt. Tyto \u0159ady, opraven\u00e9 o\u00a0systematick\u00e9 chyby, slou\u017e\u00ed jako vstupy do modelu Bilan a\u00a0v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 simulace odtoku je analyzov\u00e1na z\u00a0hlediska charakteristik sucha. Druh\u00e1 strategie je zalo\u017eena na vyu\u017eit\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed frekven\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy. Tato metoda p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee rozd\u011blen\u00ed normovan\u00fdch extr\u00e9m\u016f (nap\u0159. maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch ro\u010dn\u00edch deficitn\u00edch objem\u016f) je v\u00a0homogenn\u00edch oblastech stejn\u00e9 pro v\u0161echna povod\u00ed. Normovan\u00fdm rozd\u011blen\u00edm extr\u00e9m\u016f se rozum\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed hodnot vyd\u011blen\u00fdch normovac\u00edm faktorem (nap\u0159. pr\u016fm\u011br nebo jin\u00fd parametr polohy dan\u00e9ho rozd\u011blen\u00ed). Kombinac\u00ed dat z\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch povod\u00ed tak lze \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b nejistoty odhadu redukovat.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed kapitola stru\u010dn\u011b popisuje pou\u017eit\u00e1 data, studovan\u00e9 charakteristiky nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f a\u00a0jejich validaci. Dal\u0161\u00ed kapitola popisuje regionalizaci \u010cR z\u00a0hlediska rizika sucha a\u00a0posledn\u00ed kapitola prezentuje odhady N-let\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f.<\/p>\n\"Strnad-1\"<\/a>\n

Obr. 1. Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed charakteristik sucha pozorovan\u00e9ho a\u00a0modelovan\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku; na ose x je vynesena pravd\u011bpodobnost z\u00a0distribu\u010dn\u00ed funkce jednotliv\u00fdch charakteristik, na ose y jsou uvedeny hodnoty jednotliv\u00fdch charakteristik sucha, barevn\u00e9 plochy jsou rozsahy 25% a\u00a075% kvantil\u016f hodnot charakteristik ze souboru povod\u00ed
\nFig. 1. Comparison of drought characteristics for observed and simulated runoff; the horizontal axis shows the probability from the distribution of the individual characteristics, the vertical axis indicate the values of the drought characteristics, the colored polygons correspond to the range between the 25th<\/sup>\u00a0and 75th<\/sup>\u00a0percentile of the value of drought characteristics in the set of catchments<\/h6>\n

Charakteristiky sucha<\/h2>\n

Pro \u00fa\u010dely studie je sucho definov\u00e1no na z\u00e1klad\u011b nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f odvozen\u00fdch ze simulovan\u00e9 hydrologick\u00e9 bilance pro sadu mezipovod\u00ed pro obdob\u00ed 1901\u20132015. Odvozen\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0teplot na plochy mezipovod\u00ed jsou zalo\u017eeny na kombinaci HadCRU-TS3.21 [1], stani\u010dn\u00edch dat a\u00a0gridovan\u00e9ho datasetu sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0teploty [2]. Gridovan\u00e1 data byla p\u0159evedena na plochu povod\u00ed pomoc\u00ed v\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru (podle velikosti pr\u016fniku plochy povod\u00ed a\u00a0p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch grid box\u016f), n\u00e1sledn\u011b byla u\u00a0teploty provedena korekce na nadmo\u0159skou v\u00fd\u0161ku na z\u00e1klad\u011b porovn\u00e1n\u00ed nadmo\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky povod\u00ed a\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 nadmo\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky grid box\u016f a\u00a0korekce sr\u00e1\u017eek na z\u00e1klad\u011b vrstvy dlouhodob\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010. Pomoc\u00ed t\u011bchto \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad a\u00a0parametr\u016f modelu Bilan z\u00edskan\u00fdch kalibrac\u00ed na pozorovan\u00fdch datech byla simulov\u00e1na hydrologick\u00e1 bilance pro cel\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1901\u20132015.<\/p>\n

Nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy jsou definov\u00e1ny jako suma dopl\u0148k\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch odtok\u016f souvisle pod 20% kvantilem rozd\u011blen\u00ed odtoku. Mezi z\u00e1kladn\u00ed charakteristiky nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f lze za\u0159adit:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. velikost nedostatkov\u00e9ho objemu,\u00a0D\u00a0<\/em>[mm nebo m3<\/sup>],<\/li>\n
  2. doba trv\u00e1n\u00ed deficitn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti,\u00a0L<\/em>\u00a0[m\u011bs\u00edce],<\/li>\n
  3. intenzita sucha,\u00a0I<\/em>\u00a0=\u00a0D<\/em>\/L\u00a0<\/em>[mm\/m\u011bs\u00edc nebo m3<\/sup>\/m\u011bs\u00edc],<\/li>\n
  4. pom\u011br deficitn\u00edho objemu k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu odtoku,\u00a0rD\u00a0<\/em>[-],<\/li>\n
  5. relativn\u00ed intenzita,\u00a0rI = rD\/L\u00a0<\/em>[t-1<\/sup>].<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Podle pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hodnot jednotliv\u00fdch charakteristik sucha v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>\u00a0je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee jsou na sob\u011b jednotliv\u00e9 charakteristiky line\u00e1rn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9. Tak\u00e9 lze pozorovat postupn\u00fd r\u016fst jednotliv\u00fdch charakteristik v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu prvn\u00ed (1901\u20131930) a\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed periody (1961\u20131990), v\u00a0posledn\u00ed period\u011b (1991\u20132015) lze pozorovat jejich pokles.<\/p>\n

    Tabulka 1. Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hodnot charakteristik sucha podle jednotliv\u00fdch period na z\u00e1klad\u011b modelovan\u00e9ho celkov\u00e9ho odtoku (D [mm] velikost nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f, I\u00a0[mm\/m\u011bs\u00edc] intenzita sucha, L [m\u011bs\u00edc] d\u00e9lka deficitn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, rD [-] pom\u011br deficitn\u00edho objemu k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu odtoku, rI [t-1<\/sup>] relativn\u00ed intenzita)
    \nTable 1. Average drought characteristics for different time periods based on simulated runoff (D [mm] deficit volume, I\u00a0[mm\/month] drought intensity, L [month] length of the deficit period, rD [-] ratio of deficit volume to average monthly discharge, rI [t-1<\/sup>] relative intensity)<\/h5>\n    \"Strnad-tabulka1\"<\/a>\n

    Validace deficitn\u00edch objem\u016f<\/h3>\n

    Validace deficitn\u00edch objem\u016f prob\u00edhala pomoc\u00ed selekce uzav\u0159en\u00fdch povod\u00ed se zn\u00e1m\u00fdm pozorovan\u00fdm odtokem tak, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 porovnat jednotliv\u00e9 charakteristiky sucha vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 na z\u00e1klad\u011b modelovan\u00e9ho a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 pozorovan\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku. Validaci bylo mo\u017eno prov\u00e9st na 65 povod\u00edch (ze 133).<\/p>\n

    Jak je mo\u017en\u00e9 vid\u011bt v\u00a0tabulce 2<\/em>, v\u0161echny charakteristiky sucha vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 na z\u00e1klad\u011b simulovan\u00e9ho odtoku jsou pouze m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed oproti charakteristik\u00e1m z\u00edskan\u00fdm pomoc\u00ed pozorovan\u00e9ho odtoku.<\/p>\n

    Obr\u00e1zek 1<\/em>\u00a0prezentuje porovn\u00e1n\u00ed charakteristiky jednotliv\u00fdch deficitn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee model Bilan simuluje d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 charakteristiky sucha dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b.<\/p>\n

    Tabulka 2. Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed celkov\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f charakteristik sucha pro vybran\u00fdch 65 povod\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b pozorovan\u00e9ho a\u00a0simulovan\u00e9ho odtoku (D [mm] velikost nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f, I\u00a0[mm\/m\u011bs\u00edc] intenzita sucha, L [m\u011bs\u00edc] d\u00e9lka deficitn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, rD [-] pom\u011br deficitn\u00edho objemu k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu odtoku, rI [t-1<\/sup>] relativn\u00ed intenzita)
    \nTable 2. Comparison of average drought characteristics in simulated and observed data for 65 catchment with available data (D [mm] deficit volume, I\u00a0[mm\/month] drought intensity, L [month] length of the deficit period, rD [-] ratio of deficit volume to average monthly discharge, rI [t-1<\/sup>] relative intensity)<\/h5>\n    \"Strnad-tabulka2\"<\/a>\n

    Regionalizace \u010cR z\u00a0hlediska v\u00fdskytu sucha<\/h2>\n

    Ze v\u0161ech f\u00e1z\u00ed regionalizace je identifikace homogenn\u00edch oblast\u00ed zpravidla nejobt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0vy\u017eaduje velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed subjektivn\u00edch rozhodnut\u00ed. Pro identifikaci homogenn\u00edch oblast\u00ed byl vyu\u017eit algoritmus K-means [3], jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je nalezen\u00ed shluk\u016f v\u00a0datasetu. Vstupem algoritmu je mno\u017eina bod\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou definovan\u00e9 sou\u0159adnicemi v\u00a0n<\/em>-rozm\u011brn\u00e9m prostoru, a\u00a0\u010d\u00edslo\u00a0k<\/em>, ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed po\u017eadovan\u00fd po\u010det shluk\u016f. V\u0161echny shluky jsou reprezentovan\u00e9 sv\u00fdmi st\u0159edy a\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00fd bod n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed do shluku, jeho\u017e st\u0159ed je mu nejbl\u00ed\u017ee. Sou\u0159adnice st\u0159ed\u016f se ur\u010duj\u00ed iterativn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, tento iterativn\u00ed algoritmus neust\u00e1le zmen\u0161uje chybu, definovanou jako sou\u010det vzd\u00e1lenost\u00ed v\u0161ech bod\u016f od st\u0159ed\u016f sv\u00fdch shluk\u016f, a\u00a0sp\u011bje tak k\u00a0lok\u00e1ln\u011b-optim\u00e1ln\u00edmu \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Shlukov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza pro povrchov\u00fd odtok prob\u011bhla se \u0161k\u00e1lovan\u00fdmi daty pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch odtok\u016f a\u00a0rozd\u00edl\u016f odtok\u016f a\u00a0potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace (tj. ve dvourozm\u011brn\u00e9 metrice [odtok; odtok \u2013 PET]), algoritmus prob\u011bhl celkov\u011b desetkr\u00e1t, poka\u017ed\u00e9 se startem v\u00a0jin\u00e9, n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 pozici. Do pades\u00e1ti iterac\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd b\u011bh konvergoval k\u00a0lok\u00e1ln\u011b-optim\u00e1ln\u00edmu \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 shluky a\u00a0jejich st\u0159edy jsou zobrazeny na\u00a0obr. 2\u00a0<\/em>a\u00a0<\/em>v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 regionalizace pak na\u00a0obr. 3<\/em>.<\/p>\n\"Strnad-2\"<\/a>\n

    Obr. 2. V\u00fdsledn\u00e9 shluky (barevn\u011b) a\u00a0jejich st\u0159edy (lok\u00e1ln\u00ed optima)
    \nFig. 2. Resulting clusters (colors) and their centers (bold dots)<\/h6>\n

    Region\u00e1ln\u00ed extrem\u00e1ln\u00ed model pro nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy<\/h2>\n

    Odhad N-let\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f je zat\u00ed\u017een zna\u010dnou nejistotou, vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed mj. z\u00a0d\u00e9lky dostupn\u00fdch \u0159ad. Podobn\u011b jako pro extr\u00e9mn\u00ed pr\u016ftoky a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017eky lze i\u00a0pro nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy vyu\u017e\u00edt tzv. index-flood metodu. P\u0159edpokladem je, \u017ee nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m (mezi-)povod\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci p\u0159edem definovan\u00e9 oblasti mohou b\u00fdt normov\u00e1ny tak, \u017ee rozd\u011blen\u00ed t\u011bchto normovan\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f je v\u00a0dan\u00e9 oblasti stejn\u00e9. Normovac\u00ed faktor, kter\u00fd je ur\u010den pro jednotliv\u00e1 (mezi-)povod\u00ed, je zpravidla ozna\u010dov\u00e1n index-flood, stejn\u011b jako tato metoda [4]. Prim\u00e1rn\u011b uva\u017eujeme, \u017ee nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch povod\u00edch lze popsat pomoc\u00ed zobecn\u011bn\u00e9ho rozd\u011blen\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch hodnot (Generalized Extreme Value Distribution \u2013 GEV). Rozd\u011blen\u00ed je korigov\u00e1no vzhledem k\u00a0v\u00fdskytu let bez sucha na z\u00e1klad\u011b vztahu, kter\u00fd uv\u00e1d\u00ed Engeland [5].<\/p>\n

    V\u00fdsledkem optimalizace modelu jsou normovac\u00ed faktory pro jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed a\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed kvantilov\u00e1 funkce. Detaily modelu popisuje Hanel [6]. Region\u00e1ln\u00ed kvantilov\u00e9 funkce spolu s\u00a0normovan\u00fdmi nedostatkov\u00fdmi objemy pro jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed uv\u00e1d\u00ed\u00a0obr. 4<\/em>. Pravd\u011bpodobnosti\u00a0p<\/em>\u00a0jsou transformovan\u00e9 pomoc\u00ed vztahu –log(-log (p)).\u00a0<\/em>Tato transformace zaji\u0161\u0165uje lep\u0161\u00ed zobrazen\u00ed extr\u00e9m\u016f s\u00a0vysokou dobou opakov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

    Na\u00a0obr. 5\u00a0<\/em>jsou uvedeny odhady 2, 5, 10, 20 a\u00a050let\u00e9ho nedostatkov\u00e9ho objemu [mm] pro celkov\u00fd odtok. Je zjevn\u00e9, \u017ee nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy jsou do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry korelovan\u00e9 s\u00a0celkov\u00fdm odtokem. V\u00a0relativn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed vzhledem k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu celkov\u00e9mu odtoku (obr. 6<\/em>) nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy rostou s\u00a0dobou opakov\u00e1n\u00ed (plat\u00ed i\u00a0v\u00a0absolutn\u00ed hodnot\u011b) a\u00a0z\u0159eteln\u011b je vid\u011bt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad na povod\u00ed v\u00a0oblasti 3 (tj. v\u00a0oblasti s\u00a0nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm rizikem v\u00fdskytu sucha).<\/p>\n\"Strnad-3\"<\/a>\n

    Obr. 3. V\u00fdsledky regionalizace
    \nFig. 3. Resulting regionalization<\/h6>\n    \"Strnad-4\"<\/a>\n
    Obr. 4. Region\u00e1ln\u00ed kvantilov\u00e9 funkce pro jednotliv\u00e9 oblasti (tlust\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra) spolu s\u00a0normovan\u00fdmi kvantilov\u00fdmi funkcemi pro pozorovan\u00e1 data z\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch (mezi-)povod\u00ed
    \nFig. 4. Regional quantile functions for individual regions (bold line) together with standardized quantile functions for the observed data from individual catchments<\/h6>\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \"Strnad-5a\"<\/a><\/td>\n\"Strnad-5d\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \"Strnad-5b\"<\/a><\/td>\n\"Strnad-5e\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \"Strnad-5c\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
    Obr. 5. Mapa N-let\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f pro (simulovan\u00fd) celkov\u00fd odtok pro 2, 5, 10, 20, 50\u00a0let
    \nFig. 5. Map of N-year deficit volumes for (simulated) total runoff for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 years<\/h6>\n

    Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

    Hydrologick\u00fd model Bilan byl pou\u017eit pro simulaci hydrologick\u00e9 bilance 133\u00a0mezipovod\u00ed v\u00a0\u010cR pro obdob\u00ed 1901\u20132015. Bylo uk\u00e1z\u00e1no, \u017ee simulovan\u00e9 charakteristiky sucha odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed dob\u0159e charakteristik\u00e1m pozorovan\u00fdm (pro povod\u00ed, pro kter\u00e1 jsou dostupn\u00e1 data). \u00dazem\u00ed \u010cR bylo rozd\u011bleno do t\u0159\u00ed homogenn\u00edch oblast\u00ed ozna\u010dovan\u00fdch \u201ebez rizika\u201c (horsk\u00e9 polohy), \u201em\u00edrn\u011b ohro\u017een\u00e9\u201c (Vyso\u010dina a\u00a0st\u0159edn\u00ed polohy) a\u00a0\u201eohro\u017een\u00e9\u201c (n\u00ed\u017einy \u2013 zejm\u00e9na ji\u017en\u00ed Morava a\u00a0st\u0159edn\u00ed \u010cechy). Byly odhadnuty parametry statistick\u00e9ho modelu umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edho vy\u010d\u00edslen\u00ed N-let\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f. Z\u00a0hlediska rozd\u011blen\u00ed nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f se jednotliv\u00e9 oblasti li\u0161\u00ed zejm\u00e9na variabilitou sucha \u2013 oblasti ozna\u010dovan\u00e9 \u201ebez rizika\u201c maj\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b vyrovnan\u00fd re\u017eim a\u00a0nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch such\u00fdch obdob\u00edch se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 neli\u0161\u00ed. Naopak v\u00a0oblastech ozna\u010dovan\u00fdch jako \u201eohro\u017een\u00e9\u201c je velk\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi r\u016fzn\u011b extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi suchy \u2013 tj. rozd\u00edl mezi 2let\u00fdm a\u00a010let\u00fdm suchem je zde podstatn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00a0ostatn\u00edch oblastech.<\/p>\n

    Dal\u0161\u00edmi kroky v\u00a0regionalizaci hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha v\u00a0\u010cR je zjemn\u011bn\u00ed prostorov\u00e9ho m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka pou\u017eit\u00e9ho pro regionalizaci a\u00a0odhad N-let\u00fdch nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f a\u017e na povod\u00ed \u00fatvar\u016f povrchov\u00fdch vod, vyhodnocen\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch historick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f sucha, prodlou\u017een\u00ed rekonstrukce d\u00e1le do minulosti, simulace podm\u00ednek ovlivn\u011bn\u00fdch klimatickou zm\u011bnou a\u00a0vyhodnocen\u00ed nejistot.<\/p>\n\"Strnad-6\"<\/a>\n

    Obr. 6. Pom\u011br deficitn\u00edho objemu k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu odtoku pro doby opakov\u00e1n\u00ed 2, 5, 10, 20, 50\u00a0let
    \nFig. 6. Ratio of deficit volume to mean monthly runoff for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 years return periods<\/h6>\n

    Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n

    Studie byla provedena v\u00a0r\u00e1mci \u00fakolu \u010cinnosti k\u00a0podpo\u0159e v\u00fdkonu st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1vy v\u00a0problematice sucho v\u00a0roce 2016 a\u00a0vnit\u0159n\u00edch grant\u016f Fakulty \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cZU \u010d. 20164230 (FS) a\u00a020174227 (VM).<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The aim of the study is the regionalization of the Czech Republic with respect to drought characteristics in individual catchments. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3600,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[871,121,872],"coauthors":[845,846,34,27,124,844,29],"class_list":["post-3698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-deficit-volume","tag-drought","tag-return-period"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3698"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3698\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30407,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3698\/revisions\/30407"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3600"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3698"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=3698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}