{"id":3694,"date":"2017-08-10T11:37:31","date_gmt":"2017-08-10T11:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=3694"},"modified":"2024-07-16T12:20:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T11:20:10","slug":"hydrological-balance-and-available-water-resource-in-the-czech-republic-during-hydrological-drought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2017\/08\/hydrological-balance-and-available-water-resource-in-the-czech-republic-during-hydrological-drought\/","title":{"rendered":"Hydrological balance and available water resource in the czech republic during hydrological drought"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Souhrn<\/h2>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 hodnocen\u00edm hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, kter\u00e9 bylo rozd\u011bleno do 133 mezipovod\u00ed za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015 v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku. Pro ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, jak se such\u00e1 obdob\u00ed chovala, byl pou\u017eit model hydrologick\u00e9 bilance Bilan, pomoc\u00ed kter\u00e9ho byly tyto epizody za posledn\u00edch 35\u00a0let vyhodnoceny, a\u00a0to jak z\u00a0pohledu jednotliv\u00fdch z\u00e1sob vody (sn\u00edh, p\u016fda, podzemn\u00ed vody), tak podle jednotliv\u00fdch tok\u016f vody (sr\u00e1\u017eky, evapotranspirace, infiltrace, odtok). \u010cl\u00e1nek d\u00e1le seznamuje s\u00a0v\u00fdsledky disponibiln\u00ed vody za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch podm\u00ednek a\u00a0p\u0159i p\u011btilet\u00e9m a\u00a0desetilet\u00e9m suchu ve dvou variant\u00e1ch. Prvn\u00ed se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 vyhodnocen\u00edm zdrojov\u00e9 oblasti, ve druh\u00e9 je vyhodnocen\u00ed pomoc\u00ed zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9ho modelu vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 bilance WATERES.<\/p>\n\"hydro_bilance\"<\/a>\n

\u00davod<\/h2>\n

Sucho, kter\u00e9 postihlo \u010ceskou republiku v\u00a0roce 2015, bylo mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 a\u00a0celospole\u010densky \u0161iroce diskutovan\u00e9. Tato such\u00e1 epizoda se postupn\u011b projevila v\u00fdskytem v\u0161ech typ\u016f sucha (meteorologick\u00e9, zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9, hydrologick\u00e9) a\u00a0\u0161irok\u00fdm spektrem jeho dopad\u016f (sucho socioekonomick\u00e9). Tato such\u00e1 epizoda je \u010dasto zd\u016fvodn\u011bna t\u00edm, \u017ee povrchov\u00e1 vrstva povod\u00ed m\u00e1 n\u00edzkou reten\u010dn\u00ed kapacitu. Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fvodem byly sn\u011bhov\u011b podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zimy v\u00a0letech 2014 a\u00a02015 a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u011b podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd rok 2015. C\u00edlem \u00fakolu tedy je vyhodnocen\u00ed t\u011bchto faktor\u016f z\u00a0\u010dasoprostorov\u00e9ho pohledu na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky.<\/p>\n

Metodika<\/h2>\n

Hydrologick\u00e1 bilance se stanovuje pro povod\u00ed \u010di ur\u010dit\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Rekapituluje vstupy (sr\u00e1\u017eky, p\u0159\u00edtok, z\u00e1soby) a\u00a0v\u00fdstupy (v\u00fdpar, odtok, \u00fabytek z\u00e1sob vody) do hydrologick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Pro hodnocen\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance byl pou\u017eit model Bilan, kter\u00fd je vyv\u00edjen v\u00edce jak 15\u00a0let v\u00a0odd\u011blen\u00ed hydrologie V\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho \u00fastavu vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho T. G. Masaryka. Model po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 v\u00a0denn\u00edm \u010di m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku chronologickou hydrologickou bilanci povod\u00ed \u010di \u00fazem\u00ed. Vyjad\u0159uje z\u00e1kladn\u00ed bilan\u010dn\u00ed vztahy na povrchu povod\u00ed v\u00a0z\u00f3n\u011b aerace, do n\u00ed\u017e je zahrnut i\u00a0vegeta\u010dn\u00ed kryt povod\u00ed, a\u00a0v\u00a0z\u00f3n\u011b podzemn\u00ed vody. Jako ukazatel bilance energie, kter\u00e1 hydrologickou bilanci v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje, je pou\u017eita teplota vzduchu. V\u00fdpo\u010dtem se modeluje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace pomoc\u00ed metody [1, 2], \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar, infiltrace do z\u00f3ny aerace, pr\u016fsak touto z\u00f3nou, z\u00e1soba vody ve sn\u011bhu, z\u00e1soba vody v\u00a0p\u016fd\u011b a\u00a0z\u00e1soba podzemn\u00ed vody. Odtok je modelov\u00e1n jako sou\u010det t\u0159\u00ed slo\u017eek: dv\u011b slo\u017eky p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho odtoku (zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed i\u00a0hypodermick\u00fd odtok) a\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odtok (nap\u0159. [3]). Vstupem do modelu jsou: (i) sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny [mm], (ii) pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty, (iii) pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 vlhkost vzduchu [%], (iv) pozorovan\u00e9 odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky [mm], (v) u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody [mm\/m\u011bs\u00edc], (vi) potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace [mm].<\/p>\n

Sch\u00e9ma modelu Bilan je zobrazeno na\u00a0obr. 1<\/em>\u00a0pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00fdch (neovlivn\u011bn\u00fdch) pr\u016ftok\u016f, sch\u00e9ma propojen\u00e9ho modelu Bilan, kter\u00fd zahrnuje u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody, tzn. hodnoty o\u00a0podzemn\u00edch i\u00a0povrchov\u00fdch odb\u011brech a\u00a0vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed je uvedeno v\u00a0publikaci Vizina a\u00a0kol. [3]. Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty byly provedeny v\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed R [4] a\u00a0byly pou\u017eity p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm bal\u00edky Bilan [5] a\u00a0WATERES [6]. Pro hodnocen\u00ed propagace sucha se vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed indik\u00e1tory popsan\u00e9 nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0[7].<\/p>\n\"Vizina-1\"<\/a>\n

Obr. 1. Sch\u00e9ma modelu Bilan
\nFig. 1. Scheme of model Bilan<\/h6>\n

Hydrologick\u00e1 bilance byla modelov\u00e1na na sad\u011b 133 mezipovod\u00ed, kter\u00e1 pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed cel\u00e9 \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku za obdob\u00ed 1980\u20132015. Rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch mezipovod\u00ed je mo\u017en\u00e9 vid\u011bt na\u00a0obr. 2<\/em>. \u010cerven\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla jsou identifik\u00e1tory jednotliv\u00fdch mezipovod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z\u00a0datab\u00e1zov\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel vodom\u011brn\u00fdch stanic, kter\u00e9 se na dan\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed nach\u00e1zej\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b jsou z\u00e1v\u011brn\u00fdm profilem dan\u00e9ho mezipovod\u00ed.<\/p>\n\"Vizina-2\"<\/a>\n

Obr. 2. Mapa \u0159e\u0161en\u00e9 oblasti s\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdmi mezipovod\u00edmi
\nFig. 2. Study area with intercatchments<\/h6>\n

V\u00fdsledky a\u00a0diskuse<\/h2>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed odtok za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015 je zobrazen na\u00a0obr. 3<\/em>\u00a0(naho\u0159e). Lze vid\u011bt, \u017ee odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky se pro jednotliv\u00e1 mezipovod\u00ed pohybuj\u00ed od des\u00edtek mm v\u00a0such\u00fdch oblastech a\u017e po cca 700\u2008mm za rok pro mezipovod\u00ed nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se v\u00a0oblastech horsk\u00fdch. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd odtokov\u00fd sou\u010dinitel za zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed n\u00e1m ukazuje\u00a0obr. 3<\/em>\u00a0(dole). Jedn\u00e1 se o\u00a0pom\u011br odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky ke sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9mu \u00fahrnu. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b tohoto sou\u010dinitele m\u016f\u017eeme jednodu\u0161e odvodit, \u017ee v\u00a0tradi\u010dn\u00edch deficitn\u00edch oblastech se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed i\u00a0povod\u00ed s\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdm odtokov\u00fdm sou\u010dinitelem (tzn., \u017ee v\u00a0t\u011bchto oblastech je mal\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed vody, kter\u00e9 je mo\u017en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edt).<\/p>\n

Sumarizovan\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed bilance za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015 je zobrazeno na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch grafech. Jedn\u00e1 se o\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed boxploty1<\/sup>\u00a0pro v\u0161echna \u0159e\u0161en\u00e1 mezipovod\u00ed (133). Obarven\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch boxplot\u016f je d\u00e1no pr\u016fm\u011brnou m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hodnotou v\u00a0dan\u00e9m roce. Hodnoty lze ur\u010dit pomoc\u00ed legendy, kter\u00e1 je uvedena v\u00a0prav\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti grafu. Na\u00a0obr.<\/em>\u00a04<\/em>\u00a0jsou uvedeny m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty odtokov\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek (zna\u010deno 1\u201312, v\u00a0po\u0159ad\u00ed leden\u2013prosinec). Jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, obarven\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch boxplot\u016f n\u00e1m ud\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brnou ro\u010dn\u00ed hodnotu. V\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u010derven\u00e1 barva ukazuje roky m\u00e1lo vodn\u00e9 a\u00a0sm\u011brem k\u00a0barv\u011b modr\u00e9 se jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0roky vodnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Na\u00a0obr. 4<\/em>\u00a0m\u016f\u017eeme pozorovat, \u017ee roky 2014 a\u00a02015 pat\u0159ily k\u00a0t\u011bm nejm\u00e9n\u011b vodn\u00fdm (spolu s\u00a0roky na po\u010d\u00e1tku devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let). Modr\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra ud\u00e1v\u00e1 trend pro jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce. Trendov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza byla provedena pomoc\u00ed metody GAM-Generalized Additive Models [8]. Trend pro jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce nebyl d\u00e1le statisticky testov\u00e1n. Na grafu m\u016f\u017eeme pozorovat, \u017ee odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky v\u00a0letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roku 2015 byly opravdu extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a\u00a0v\u00a0pozorovan\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b se v\u00a0jin\u00e9m obdob\u00ed nevyskytovaly.<\/p>\n

Situace v\u00a0letech 2003 a\u00a02015<\/h2>\n

Na\u00a0obr. 5\u00a0<\/em>jsou zobrazeny absolutn\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00a0milimetrech pro jednotliv\u00e1 mezipovod\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2015. Lze pozorovat, \u017ee mapy maj\u00ed tendenci m\u00edt \u010dervenou barvu (v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9m roce je mapa sp\u00ed\u0161e \u017eluto-zelen\u00e1), co\u017e zna\u010d\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 odtoky, kter\u00e9 se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, a\u00a0to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0letn\u00edch a\u00a0prvn\u00edch podzimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Pro ilustraci, jak\u00e9 byly odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky, relativn\u00ed zm\u011bny odtoku, hodnoty evapotranspirace a\u00a0absolutn\u00ed zm\u011bny v\u00a0z\u00e1sob\u011b vody ve sn\u011bhu v\u00a0roce 2003 a\u00a02015, se p\u0159ikl\u00e1d\u00e1\u00a0obr. 6<\/em>. V\u00a0lev\u00e9m sloupci je uveden rok 2003, v\u00a0prav\u00e9m potom rok 2015. Absolutn\u00ed hodnoty odtokov\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek jsou zobrazeny v\u00a0prvn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dku. Na obr\u00e1zku v\u00a0druh\u00e9m \u0159\u00e1dku je mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorovat, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky za tyto roky dosahuj\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b 30\u201370\u00a0% pr\u016fm\u011bru za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015 (b\u00edl\u00e1 barva reprezentuje nezm\u011bn\u011bn\u00fd stav, \u017elut\u00e1 pokles a\u00a0modr\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fst). Ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dku jsou hodnoty evapotranspirace, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0t\u011bchto letech dosahovaly relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot, co\u017e je d\u00e1no p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm t\u00edm, \u017ee nebyla disponibiln\u00ed voda v\u00a0p\u016fd\u011b, kter\u00e1 by evapotranspirovala. Analogicky je zobrazena relativn\u00ed zm\u011bna z\u00e1soby vody ve sn\u011bhu v\u00a0mm (\u010dtvrt\u00fd \u0159\u00e1dek). Z\u00e1soba vody ve sn\u011bhu m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161inou velk\u00fd vliv na odtokov\u00e9 pom\u011bry v\u00a0cel\u00e9m roce. V\u00a0roce 2015 oproti pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015 lze pozorovat v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles z\u00e1soby, co\u017e je jedn\u00edm z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f nedostatku vody v\u00a0roce 2015 v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u011b podpr\u016fm\u011brnou zimou v\u00a0roce 2014. Z\u00e1soba vody ve sn\u011bhu m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 velk\u00fd vliv na dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00edch vod, co\u017e se projevilo pot\u00e9 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0roce 2016, kdy z\u00e1soby poklesly (v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice existuje tak\u00e9 cyklicita v\u00a0z\u00e1sob\u00e1ch podzemn\u00edch vod). V\u00fdstupy pro zm\u011bny odtoku, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 odtoky, aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace a\u00a0zm\u011bny z\u00e1soby vody pro jednotliv\u00e9 roky jsou dostupn\u00e9 na webu www.suchovkrajine.cz.<\/p>\n\"Vizina-3a\"<\/a>\n\"Vizina-3b\"<\/a>\n

Obr. 3. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed odtok v\u00a0mm (naho\u0159e) a\u00a0odtokov\u00fd sou\u010dinitel (dole) za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015
\nFig. 3. Mean annual runoff in mm (above) and runoff coeficient (down) for the period 1981\u20132015<\/h6>\n\"Vizina-4\"<\/a>\n
Obr. 4. Odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky pro cel\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch a\u00a0letech
\nFig. 4. Runoff heights for the whole territory of the Czech Republic in individual months and years<\/h6>\n

Disponibiln\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje<\/h2>\n

Disponibiln\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje modelovan\u00e9 modelem WATERES [6] jsou zobrazeny na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch obr\u00e1zc\u00edch ve variantn\u00edm v\u00fdpo\u010dtu, kdy se uva\u017eovalo, \u017ee jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed funguj\u00ed samostatn\u011b (varianta MEZI) a\u00a0pro zapojen\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch povod\u00ed do vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 soustavy (varianta SOUST). Na\u00a0obr. 7<\/em>\u00a0jsou pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 disponibiln\u00ed zdroje (medi\u00e1ny) pro variantu MEZI. V\u00a0t\u00e9to variant\u011b se disponibiln\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje (za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015) pro jednotliv\u00e1 mezipovod\u00ed pohybuj\u00ed okolo 4\u2008m3<\/sup>.s-1<\/sup>. Logicky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnoty se vyskytuj\u00ed na horsk\u00fdch a\u00a0podhorsk\u00fdch povod\u00ed a\u00a0naopak ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnoty se vyskytuj\u00ed v\u00a0n\u00ed\u017ein\u00e1ch. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 v\u0161ak je, jak dostupnost vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f kles\u00e1 pro p\u011btilet\u00e9 sucho a\u00a0zejm\u00e9na pro sucho desetilet\u00e9, kdy i\u00a0pro sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky jsou hodnoty t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulov\u00e9. V\u00fdjimkou je mezipovod\u00ed v\u00a0Praze, kde je velk\u00fd vliv vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed z\u00a0\u010cOV. To s\u00a0sebou v\u0161ak samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nese zhor\u0161enou kvalitu vody (problematika je pops\u00e1na v\u00a0r\u00e1mci jin\u00e9ho \u00fakolu na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch www.suchovkrajine.cz).<\/p>\n\"Vizina-5\"<\/a>\n

Obr. 5. Absolutn\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky v\u00a0roce 2015 v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (zna\u010deno 1\u201312, leden\u2013prosinec)
\nFig. 5. Absolute runoff heights in 2015 for each months (ranked 1\u201312, January\u2013December)<\/h6>\n

Pro variantu SOUST a\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky jsou dostupn\u00e9 vodn\u00ed zdroje zobrazeny na\u00a0obr. 8<\/em>. Pro pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky hodnoty dosahuje Labe na hranic\u00edch \u010cR hodnot t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 200\u2008m3<\/sup>.s-1<\/sup>. Pro p\u011btilet\u00e9 sucho tato hodnota kles\u00e1 na t\u0159etinu a\u00a0u\u00a0desetilet\u00e9ho sucha p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na p\u011btinu. Obdobn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed je mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorovat pro obdob\u00ed sucha i\u00a0na ostatn\u00edch toc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Vliv vodn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed na hydrologick\u00e9 sucho m\u016f\u017eeme pozorovat na\u00a0obr. 9<\/em>, kde jsou zaznamen\u00e1ny denn\u00ed pr\u016ftoky na Labi v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b za obdob\u00ed 1880\u20132015. Barvy ozna\u010duj\u00ed jednotliv\u00e1 sucha, kter\u00e1 jsou d\u00e1na M-denn\u00edmi vodami (300, 330, 355 a\u00a0364) a\u00a0siln\u00e1 \u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra vyjad\u0159uje celkov\u00fd reten\u010dn\u00ed prostor v\u00a0cel\u00e9m povod\u00ed s\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00edm uveden\u00ed do provozu nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0jejich objemem.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

Byla zpracov\u00e1na hydrologick\u00e1 bilance na cel\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky na souboru 133 mezipovod\u00ed pro sou\u010dasn\u00e9 a\u00a0v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. D\u00e1le byly zpracov\u00e1ny disponibiln\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch letech a\u00a0v\u00fdhledech ke konci 21.\u00a0stolet\u00ed. Byla provedena trendov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza jednotliv\u00fdch veli\u010din podle Mann-Kendall testu. V\u00fdsledky byly zpracov\u00e1ny do mapov\u00fdch podklad\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou k\u00a0dispozici ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku na webov\u00e9m port\u00e1le www.suchovkrajine.cz. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch poznatk\u016f zde bodov\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00edme obecn\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry a\u00a0doporu\u010den\u00ed:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. vyhodnotit hydrologickou a\u00a0vodohospod\u00e1\u0159skou bilanci v\u00a0denn\u00edm kroku na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cR,<\/li>\n
  2. zpracovat hydrologickou bilanci pro jednotliv\u00e9 vodn\u00ed \u00fatvary,<\/li>\n
  3. vytvo\u0159en\u00ed propojen\u00e9ho modelu hodnot\u00edc\u00edho hydrologickou, vodohospod\u00e1\u0159skou bilanci v\u00a0on-line m\u00f3du,<\/li>\n
  4. zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fdch syntetick\u00fdch \u0159ad pro vyhodnocen\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance, u\u00a0kter\u00e9 by se daly stanovit dlouhodob\u00e9 doby opakov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\"Vizina-6\"<\/a>\n
    Obr. 6. Absolutn\u00ed hodnoty odtokov\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek v\u00a0mm, relativn\u00ed zm\u011bna odtoku za rok 2003, 2015 k\u00a0referen\u010dn\u00edmu obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015, hodnoty evapotranspirace v\u00a0mm a\u00a0zm\u011bna z\u00e1soby vody ve sn\u011bhu k\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132015 v\u00a0mm
    \nFig. 6. Absolutes values of runoff heights in mm, relative change of runoff in year 2003, 2015 vs reference period 1981\u20132015, evapotranspiration in mm and changes in water storages at snow vs reference period 1981\u20132015 in mm<\/h6>\n

    V\u00fdsledky byly vyu\u017eity pro n\u00e1vrh Koncepce ochrany p\u0159ed n\u00e1sledky sucha pro \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed byly identifikov\u00e1ny n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed nejistoty:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. neexistence vybran\u00fdch prostorov\u011b distribuovan\u00fdch hydrologick\u00fdch podklad\u016f v\u00a0pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 podrobnosti (minim\u00e1ln\u00ed a\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed odtoky, charakteristiky variability odtoku, vybran\u00e9 kvantily rozd\u011blen\u00ed odtoku, charakteristiky z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku apod.) pro kalibraci hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu BILAN na mezipovod\u00ed;<\/li>\n
    2. mal\u00e1 podrobnost \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 hodnot\u00ed pouze velk\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed celky, lok\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my mohou zaniknout;<\/li>\n
    3. neexistence syntetick\u00fdch \u0159ad, podle kter\u00fdch je mo\u017en\u00e9 simulovat del\u0161\u00ed doby opakov\u00e1n\u00ed (tzn. kvantifikovat nap\u0159\u00edklad 100let\u00e9 sucho).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n\n
      \"Vizina-7a\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      \"Vizina-7b\"<\/a><\/td>\n\"Vizina-7c\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
      Obr. 7. Disponibiln\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje pro variantu MEZI (naho\u0159e \u2013 medi\u00e1n, vlevo \u2013 p\u011btilet\u00e9 sucho, vpravo \u2013 desetilet\u00e9 sucho)
      \nFig. 7. Disponible water sources for variant MEZI (above \u2013 median, left \u2013 5 years drought, right \u2013 10 years drought)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n\n
      \"Vizina-8a\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      \"Vizina-8b\"<\/a><\/td>\n\"Vizina-8c\"<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
      Obr. 8. Disponibiln\u00ed vodn\u00ed zdroje pro variantu SOUST (naho\u0159e \u2013 medi\u00e1n, vlevo \u2013 p\u011btilet\u00e9 sucho, vpravo \u2013 desetilet\u00e9 sucho)
      \nFig. 8. Disponible water sources for variant SOUST (above \u2013 median, left \u2013 5 years drought, right \u2013 10 years drought)<\/h6>\n      \"Vizina-9\"<\/a>\n
      Obr. 9. V\u00fdskyt hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha na Labi v historick\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b s uv\u00e1\u017een\u00edm vlivu Vltavsk\u00e9 kask\u00e1dy
      \nFig. 9. The occurrence of hydrological drought on the Elbe in historical time series considering the infl uence of the Vltava cascade<\/h6>\n

      Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n

      P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek vznikl v\u00a0r\u00e1mci \u00fakol\u016f \u0159e\u0161en\u00fdch pro Ministerstvo \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky.<\/em><\/p>\n

      Pozn\u00e1mky<\/h4>\n
        \n
      1. V\u00a0deskriptivn\u00ed (popisn\u00e9) statistice je\u00a0boxplot\u00a0neboli\u00a0krabicov\u00fd graf\u00a0\u010di\u00a0krabicov\u00fd diagram\u00a0jeden ze zp\u016fsob\u016f grafick\u00e9 vizualizace numerick\u00fdch dat pomoc\u00ed jejich kvartil\u016f. St\u0159edn\u00ed \u201ekrabicov\u00e1\u201c \u010d\u00e1st diagramu je shora ohrani\u010dena 3. kvartilem, zespodu 1. kvartilem a\u00a0mezi nimi se nach\u00e1z\u00ed linie vymezuj\u00edc\u00ed medi\u00e1n.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The article deals with the assessment of the hydrological balance in a monthly time step in the territory of the Czech Republic, which was divided into 133 sub-basins for the period 1981\u20132015. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3582,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[121,869,870,109],"coauthors":[27,32,34,35,844,124,29,845],"class_list":["post-3694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-drought","tag-hydrology-balance","tag-water-balance","tag-water-sources"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3694"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30408,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3694\/revisions\/30408"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3694"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=3694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}