{"id":3499,"date":"2017-06-12T08:36:29","date_gmt":"2017-06-12T08:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=3499"},"modified":"2024-07-16T12:10:39","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T11:10:39","slug":"estimation-of-water-withdrawals-in-the-czech-republic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2017\/06\/estimation-of-water-withdrawals-in-the-czech-republic\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimation of water withdrawals in the Czech Republic"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n

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Souhrn<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku jsou shrnuty z\u00e1v\u011bry projektu TD020113, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem bylo stanoven\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fdch budouc\u00edch pot\u0159eb vody v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu 2030 a\u017e 2050. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci projektu TD 020113 byly analyzov\u00e1ny \u010dty\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje \u010desk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. \u010cl\u00e1nek navazuje na p\u0159edchoz\u00ed publikovan\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se pouze sektorem ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch vodovod\u016f [1] a\u00a0dopl\u0148uje je o\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed zpracovan\u00e9 sektory (energetika a\u00a0\u017eivo\u010di\u0161n\u00e1 v\u00fdroba). Odb\u011bry pro pr\u016fmysl, rostlinnou v\u00fdrobu a\u00a0ostatn\u00ed odb\u011bry jsou pak odhadnuty na z\u00e1klad\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00fdch trend\u016f.<\/p>\n\"IMAG6350\"<\/a>\n

\u00davod<\/h2>\n

Existuj\u00edc\u00ed studie dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny jasn\u011b formuluj\u00ed trendy a\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bry t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se poklesu dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch. Ke stejn\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm doch\u00e1z\u00ed studie jak \u010desk\u00e9, tak evropsk\u00e9 \u010di glob\u00e1ln\u00ed. Kvantifikace dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f je p\u0159edm\u011btem mnoha studi\u00ed a\u00a0v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch projekt\u016f jak v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice, tak na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Z\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch v\u00fdstup\u016f v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dvou letech lze pro ilustraci jmenovat nap\u0159. materi\u00e1l zpracovan\u00fd pro M\u017dP [2] \u010di studie V\u00daV TGM [3\u20135]. \u010cesk\u00e9 materi\u00e1ly se, snad vlivem dlouhodob\u00e9ho poklesu odb\u011br\u016f povrchov\u00fdch a\u00a0podzemn\u00edch vod v\u00a0uplynul\u00fdch 35 letech, kdy maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch odb\u011br\u016f ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3,52\u2008mld. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> bylo dosa\u017eeno v\u00a0roce 1983 [6] (obr. 1<\/em>), kvantifikac\u00ed budouc\u00edch odb\u011br\u016f ve v\u00fdhledu 15, 20 a\u00a0v\u00edce let prakticky nezab\u00fdvaj\u00ed a\u00a0soust\u0159e\u010fuj\u00ed se na problematiku kvantifikace hydrologick\u00e9 bilance. Strategick\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0sektoru vodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed i\u00a0\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 bilance ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m a\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9m v\u00fdhledu \u010dasto spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na porovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fdch odb\u011br\u016f, \u010di dokonce sou\u010dasn\u00fdch povolen\u00fdch odb\u011br\u016f s\u00a0budouc\u00edmi zdroji. \u017de takov\u00e1 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed mohou v\u00e9st k\u00a0o\u0161idn\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm je jasn\u00e9, pokud si uv\u011bdom\u00edme, jak dramatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny v\u00a0odb\u011brech mohou nastat vlivem zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch (co\u017e je p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e1 budoucnost) \u010di socioekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek (co\u017e dokl\u00e1d\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdvoj odb\u011br\u016f v\u00a090. letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed). V\u00a0r\u00e1mci zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9ho projektu TD020113 jsme se pokusili uvedenou skute\u010dnost alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b napravit a\u00a0p\u0159ipravit odhad pot\u0159eb vody na z\u00e1klad\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f socioekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu 2030 a\u017e 2050.<\/p>\n

Odb\u011bry v\u00a0uplynul\u00fdch 35 letech<\/h2>\n

Sektor ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch vodovod\u016f<\/h3>\n

Zat\u00edmco v\u00a080. letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed (s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou roku 1984) doch\u00e1zelo prakticky k\u00a0plynul\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu odb\u011br\u016f pro sektor ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch vodovod\u016f a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 1,27\u2008mld. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> (obr. 2a<\/em>), tak po roce 1989 doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0plynul\u00e9mu poklesu\u00a0(s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou let 2006, 2012 a\u00a02015) a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 602\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1 <\/sup>v\u00a0roce 2014. V\u00fdjimky v\u00a0trendech v\u00a0letech 1984, 2006 a\u00a02012 jsou statisticky nev\u00fdznamn\u00e9 (m\u00e9n\u011b jak 0,4\u2009%). Proti tomu zm\u011bna v\u00a0roce 2015 dos\u00e1hla hodnoty 1,79\u2009% ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0rokem p\u0159edchoz\u00edm a\u00a0mohlo by tak j\u00edt o\u00a0zm\u011bnu trendu, co\u017e v\u0161ak bude mo\u017eno posoudit a\u017e v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech.<\/p>\n\"Ansorge-1\"<\/a>\n

Obr. 1. Odb\u011bry povrchov\u00fdch a\u00a0podzemn\u00edch vod v\u00a0\u010cR v\u00a0letech 1980\u20132015 (zdroj dat: MZe a\u00a0M\u017dP [6])
\nFig. 1. Water withdrawals in the Czech Republic between 1980 and 2015 (blue = public water supply systems; light blue = industry; yellow = energy; green = agriculture; red = other withdrawals)<\/h6>\n

Sektor energetiky<\/h3>\n

Odb\u011bry pro sektor energetiky dos\u00e1hly maxima v\u00a0roce 1981 ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1,284\u2008mld.\u00a0m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> (obr. 2b<\/em>) a\u00a0a\u017e do roku 2001 lze sledovat klesaj\u00edc\u00ed trend odb\u011br\u016f a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 502\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup>. N\u00e1r\u016fst odb\u011br\u016f pro sektor energetiky je spojen s\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm Jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny Temel\u00edn do provozu v\u00a0letech 2001 a\u00a02002. Desetilet\u00ed 2003\u20132012 pak vykazuje odb\u011bry kol\u00edsaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00a0intervalu 828\u2008mil. a\u017e 942\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> n\u00e1sledovan\u00e9 postupn\u00fdm poklesem na hodnotu 613\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> v\u00a0roce 2015. S\u00a0ohledem na pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 i\u00a0nepl\u00e1novan\u00e9 odst\u00e1vky obou jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren v\u00a0uplynul\u00e9m roce lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed poklesu v\u00a0odb\u011brech cel\u00e9ho sektoru i\u00a0v\u00a0roce 2016.<\/p>\n

Sektor pr\u016fmyslu<\/h3>\n

Odb\u011bry pro sektor pr\u016fmyslu dos\u00e1hly maxima v\u00a0roce 1981 na \u00farovni 1,03\u2008mld.\u00a0m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> a\u00a0minima v\u00a0roce 2013 na \u00farovni 248,5\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1 <\/sup>(obr. 2c<\/em>). Celkov\u011b lze odb\u011bry pro sektor pr\u016fmyslu charakterizovat klesaj\u00edc\u00edm trendem, kter\u00fd byl akcelerov\u00e1n po roce 1989. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 2009 a\u017e 2015 v\u0161ak doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1t\u011b dynamiky poklesu odb\u011br\u016f a\u00a0sp\u00ed\u0161e stagnaci odb\u011br\u016f v\u00a0rozp\u011bt\u00ed 250 a\u017e 290\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Sektor zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Odb\u011bry pro sektor zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed v\u00a0uplynul\u00fdch 35 letech lze rozd\u011blit do t\u0159\u00ed charakteristick\u00fdch obdob\u00ed (obr. 2d<\/em>). V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1980\u20131990 nen\u00ed patrn\u00fd jednozna\u010dn\u00fd trend a\u00a0odb\u011bry kol\u00edsaj\u00ed mezi 44 a\u017e 110\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup>, kdy v\u00a0roce 1990 je dosa\u017eeno absolutn\u00edho maxima za cel\u00fdch 35\u00a0let. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1990 a\u017e 1998 doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0plynul\u00e9mu poklesu a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 7,4\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> a\u00a0po tomto obdob\u00ed naopak doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b trendu a\u00a0k\u00a0postupn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu odb\u011br\u016f a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 54\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Sektor ostatn\u00edch odb\u011br\u016f<\/h3>\n

Odb\u011bry v\u00a0sektoru ostatn\u00ed (v\u010detn\u011b stavebnictv\u00ed) tvo\u0159\u00ed zanedbatelnou \u010d\u00e1st celkov\u00fdch odb\u011br\u016f (obr. 2e<\/em>). Lze je v\u00a0uplynul\u00fdch 35 letech rozd\u011blit na dv\u011b samostatn\u00e1 obdob\u00ed. V\u00a0letech 1980\u20131996 doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hodnoty odb\u011br\u016f kolem 60\u2008mil.\u00a0m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup>, pak n\u00e1sleduje pokles k\u00a0cca 10\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup> v\u00a0letech 1997\u20132002 a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fd postupn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst a\u017e do roku 2008. V\u00a0roce 2008 p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed \u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad z\u00a0nomenklatury \u201eOKE\u010c\u201c na nomenklaturu \u201eCZ-NACE\u201c. Ur\u010dit\u00e9 implementa\u010dn\u00ed zmatky spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0touto zm\u011bnou se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b projevily v\u00a0\u201eodlehl\u00e9\u201c hodnot\u011b odb\u011br\u016f v\u00a0roce 2008, kter\u00e1 se v\u00a0ostatn\u00edch sektorech neprojevila tak v\u00fdznamn\u011b. Posledn\u00edm obdob\u00edm je pak obdob\u00ed 2009 a\u017e 2015, kdy op\u011bt doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed hodnoty odb\u011br\u016f (tj. stagnaci) okolo hodnoty 26\u2008mil. m3<\/sup>\u00b7rok-1<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Metodika a\u00a0vstupn\u00ed data<\/h2>\n

\u0158e\u0161en\u00ed projektu TD020113 vych\u00e1zelo z\u00a0princip\u016f DPSIR konceptu [7, 8] a\u00a0z\u00a0aplikace Story and Simulation p\u0159\u00edstupu [9, 10]. Story and Simulation p\u0159\u00edstup spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0kombinaci popisn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje s\u00a0modelovac\u00edm apar\u00e1tem pro kvantifikaci zvolen\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f. Pro \u010d\u00e1st projektu zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se matematick\u00fdm modelov\u00e1n\u00edm byl zvolen p\u0159\u00edstup postaven\u00fd na vyu\u017eit\u00ed statistick\u00fdch model\u016f. Tento p\u0159\u00edstup je vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0ekonometrii a\u00a0zde byl pou\u017eit pro otestov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho aplikovatelnosti na probl\u00e9my spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm vod. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed se soust\u0159edilo na sektory ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch vodovod\u016f a\u00a0energetiky, kter\u00e9 jsou dominantn\u00ed v\u00a0odb\u011brech vody v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice (dohromady okolo 80\u2009% odb\u011br\u016f za posledn\u00edch deset let), a\u00a0sektor zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, kter\u00fd je sice z\u00a0pohledu evidovan\u00fdch odb\u011br\u016f bezv\u00fdznamn\u00fd (m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 3,4\u2009%), ale z\u00a0hlediska budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje je jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch na dopady klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny.<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z\u00a0v\u00fdsledk\u016f projektu je metodick\u00fd materi\u00e1l [11], kter\u00fd je obecn\u011b vyu\u017eiteln\u00fd p\u0159i stanovov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edch odb\u011br\u016f (pot\u0159eb) vody, ale i\u00a0budouc\u00edch hodnot jin\u00fdch environment\u00e1ln\u00edch \u010di socioekonomick\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f. S\u00a0ohledem na dostupnost vstupn\u00edch dat bylo pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed zvoleno prostorov\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko cel\u00e9 \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky a\u00a0data byla vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na v\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku. Pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed byla vybr\u00e1na statistick\u00e1 data shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1na podle \u010desk\u00e9 legislativy dostupn\u00e1 u\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu, pop\u0159. v\u00a0r\u00e1mci resortn\u00edch statistik a\u00a0statistik vl\u00e1dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed (nap\u0159. Energetick\u00fd regula\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ad). Zejm\u00e9na pro sektor zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed\u00a0byla t\u00e9\u017e vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na data profesn\u00edch sdru\u017een\u00ed. Pro popis budouc\u00edho stavu \u010desk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti byly odvozeny \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e:<\/p>\n