{"id":2702,"date":"2016-12-06T14:28:43","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T14:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=2702"},"modified":"2024-07-16T11:53:30","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T10:53:30","slug":"influence-of-position-reservoir-in-the-watershed-at-an-adaptive-control-of-the-storage-capacity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2016\/12\/influence-of-position-reservoir-in-the-watershed-at-an-adaptive-control-of-the-storage-capacity\/","title":{"rendered":"Influence of position reservoir in the watershed at an adaptive control of the storage capacity"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n

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Souhrn<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu n\u011bkolika posledn\u00edch let je mo\u017eno pozorovat \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdskyt hydrologick\u00fdch extr\u00e9m\u016f. Doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdskytu povodn\u00ed a\u00a0k\u00a0prohlubov\u00e1n\u00ed obdob\u00ed sucha. Re\u00e1ln\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b po sob\u011b opakuj\u00edc\u00edho se v\u00fdskytu n\u011bkolika d\u00e9letrvaj\u00edc\u00edch obdob\u00ed sucha m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k\u00a0ohro\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u011bkter\u00fdch vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce je dosta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, ale vzhledem ke klimatick\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 dob\u011b neposta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed. B\u011b\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by mohl b\u00fdt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en o\u00a0inteligentn\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0principu adaptivity. \u00dasp\u011b\u0161nost inteligentn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce byla ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve prok\u00e1z\u00e1na. P\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek ov\u011b\u0159uje vliv polohy n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0povod\u00ed p\u0159i inteligentn\u00edm (adaptivn\u00edm) \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 hydrologick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtok\u016f vody do n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0optimaliza\u010dn\u00edm modelem. V\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku uveden\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky poukazuj\u00ed na skute\u010dnost, \u017ee je mo\u017eno za ur\u010dit\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed u\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed situovan\u00fdch v\u00a0horn\u00ed a\u00a0i\u00a0v\u00a0doln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti povod\u00ed.<\/p>\n\"shutterstock_120796300_uprava\"<\/a>\n

\u00davod<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu n\u011bkolika posledn\u00edch let je mo\u017eno pozorovat \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdskyt hydrologick\u00fdch extr\u00e9m\u016f. Doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdskytu povodn\u00ed a\u00a0k\u00a0prohlubov\u00e1n\u00ed obdob\u00ed sucha. Odborn\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce z\u00a0oblasti klimatologie na v\u00fdskyt t\u011bchto extr\u00e9mn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b upozor\u0148uj\u00ed. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad roky 2011 a\u00a02012, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0hydrologick\u00e9ho hlediska byly hodnoceny jako extr\u00e9mn\u011b such\u00e9 [1], a\u00a0rovn\u011b\u017e tak i\u00a0minul\u00fd rok 2015 [2]. V\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti je mo\u017eno o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee se tyto ud\u00e1losti budou vyskytovat \u010dast\u011bji a\u00a0jejich negativn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek bude m\u00edt progresivn\u00ed trend.<\/p>\n

Klimatick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky ji\u017e p\u0159inutily \u0161irokou odbornou ve\u0159ejnost k\u00a0zamy\u0161len\u00ed, zda je \u010cesk\u00e1 republika dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipravena na vznik mo\u017en\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch nedostatkem z\u00e1sob vody. Z\u00a0podn\u011bt\u016f odborn\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti do\u0161lo k\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00ed pracovn\u00ed skupiny SUCHO. Skupina vznikla na p\u0159elomu let 2013\/2014 a\u00a0formulovala v\u00fd\u010det opat\u0159en\u00ed proti negativn\u00edm dopad\u016fm potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho sucha vedouc\u00ed k\u00a0p\u0159edejit\u00ed krizov\u00e9 situace vyvolan\u00e9 jeho v\u00fdskytem a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm nedostatkem vody. Po spojen\u00ed s\u00a0ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00ed pracovn\u00ed skupinou VODA do\u0161lo ke vzniku Mezirezortn\u00ed komise VODA\u00ad\u2011SUCHO a\u00a0po vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci byl zpracov\u00e1n dokument [3]. Vytvo\u0159en\u00fd dokument obsahuje obecn\u00fd \u00favod do problematiky sucha v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159edkl\u00e1dac\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, zd\u016fvod\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed jeho pot\u0159ebnost, a\u00a0d\u00e1le v\u00fd\u010det p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b pades\u00e1ti konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed proti negativn\u00edm dopad\u016fm sucha. Koncepce popsan\u00e1 v\u00a0dokumentu byla 29.\u00a07.\u00a02015 usnesen\u00edm vl\u00e1dy \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky schv\u00e1lena.<\/p>\n

Re\u00e1ln\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b po sob\u011b se opakuj\u00edc\u00edho v\u00fdskytu n\u011bkolika d\u00e9letrvaj\u00edc\u00edch obdob\u00ed sucha m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k\u00a0ohro\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u011bkter\u00fdch vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. Za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se tato hrozba stane skute\u010dnost\u00ed a\u00a0z\u00e1soba vody ve vodn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00edch nebude pro jejich provoz dosta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, bude mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edvat ve zm\u011bn\u011b v\u00a0provozov\u00e1n\u00ed vodn\u00edch d\u011bl. Tyto zm\u011bny budou p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159edstavovat \u00fapravu zp\u016fsobu manipulace s\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm odtokem. V\u00a0krajn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, pokud budou vy\u010derp\u00e1ny v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti ostatn\u00edch adapta\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed k\u00a0zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb a\u00a0kdy dopady klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny nebudou \u0159e\u0161iteln\u00e9 jin\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky pro jejich neproveditelnost nebo pro jejich ne\u00fam\u011brn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, bude mo\u017eno st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it o\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee nov\u00e9. S\u00a0touto my\u0161lenkou byl v\u00a0roce 2011 aktualizov\u00e1n generel \u00fazem\u00ed chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch pro akumulaci povrchov\u00fdch vod [4]. Mo\u017enost\u00ed zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f zm\u011bny klimatu vyu\u017eit\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch pro akumulaci povrchov\u00fdch vod se rovn\u011b\u017e v\u011bnuje pr\u00e1ce, viz\u00a0[5].<\/p>\n

Od 70. let 20. stolet\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nedo\u0161lo v\u00a0oblasti strategick\u00e9ho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed (horizont \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m kroku m\u011bs\u00edc) z\u00e1sobn\u00ed a\u00a0hydroenergetick\u00e9 funkce u\u00a0vodn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed k\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b. Postupn\u011b budeme zcela jist\u011b sv\u011bdky zes\u00edlen\u00ed spole\u010densk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky nejen ve smyslu zdokonalov\u00e1n\u00ed operativn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, ale rovn\u011b\u017e ve smyslu zm\u011bn z\u00e1kladn\u00edch strategick\u00fdch parametru\u030a n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed \u010dasto s\u00a0c\u00edlem v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho pos\u00edlen\u00ed jejich z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce [6].<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce je dosta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, ale vzhledem ke klimatick\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 dob\u011b neposta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed. Klasick\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce vodn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b z\u00a0pravidel \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed [7], resp. z\u00a0dispe\u010dersk\u00fdch graf\u016f [8]. Vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed uveden\u00fdch pravidel bylo p\u0159\u00edmo ovlivn\u011bno v\u00fdkonnost\u00ed tehdej\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed techniky, co\u017e m\u011blo za n\u00e1sledek jejich zna\u010dn\u00e9 zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed. Pravidla jsou vytvo\u0159ena na z\u00e1klad\u011b historick\u00fdch pr\u016ftokov\u00fdch \u0159ad. Pou\u017eit\u00ed historick\u00fdch pr\u016ftokov\u00fdch \u0159ad pravidl\u016fm neumo\u017e\u0148uje adaptivn\u011b reagovat na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Z\u00a0tohoto d\u016fvodu m\u016f\u017eou sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pravidla \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nar\u00e1\u017eet na omezen\u00ed plynouc\u00ed z\u00a0m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edch se hydrologick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0historick\u00fdch pr\u016ftokov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch nem\u016f\u017eou b\u00fdt zahrnuty. Dne\u0161n\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed techniky umo\u017e\u0148uje pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 zp\u016fsoby \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it o\u00a0nov\u00e9 tzv.\u00a0inteligentn\u00ed zp\u016fsoby \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Inteligentn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed umo\u017en\u00ed vhodnou manipulaci na vodn\u00edch d\u00edlech. Vhodn\u00e1 manipulace dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159edej\u00edt poruch\u00e1m syst\u00e9mu v\u00a0podob\u011b nedod\u00e1vky vody a\u00a0tak\u00e9 dok\u00e1\u017ee efektivn\u011b hospoda\u0159it s\u00a0vodou pro hydroenergetick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely. V\u00a0kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku \u00faprava manipulace na vodn\u00edch d\u00edlech m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st podnik\u016fm povod\u00ed a\u00a0ostatn\u00edm spole\u010dnostem v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdhody v\u00a0podob\u011b hospod\u00e1rn\u00e9 distribuce vody do syst\u00e9mu a\u00a0minimalizace mo\u017en\u00e9ho vzniku ekonomick\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

B\u011b\u017en\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by mohl b\u00fdt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en o\u00a0inteligentn\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Inteligentn\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0principu adaptivity. Adaptivn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup umo\u017e\u0148uje reagovat na pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Obvykle je k\u00a0tomuto \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 znalost hydrologick\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtok\u016f vody do n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0optimaliza\u010dn\u00edm modelem. V\u00a0praxi je mo\u017eno principem adaptivity \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b eliminovat nep\u0159esnost p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Adaptivn\u00edm \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch soustav se zab\u00fdval na p\u0159elomu\u00a080. a\u00a090. let profesor Nach\u00e1zel a\u00a0docent Patera [9\u201312].<\/p>\n

Inteligentn\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by v\u00a0budoucnu mohl b\u00fdt pou\u017eit jako podp\u016frn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj pro vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd dispe\u010dink, kter\u00e9mu zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f s\u00a0v\u00edce n\u00e1dr\u017eemi a\u00a0s\u00a0uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00edce vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch \u00fa\u010del\u016f poskytne vhodnou podporu p\u0159i procesu rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Uva\u017eovan\u00fd algoritmus \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed bude p\u0159edstavovat jedno z\u00a0mo\u017en\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed pro zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed negativn\u00edch dopad\u016f sucha a\u00a0nedostatku vody. Takov\u00e9 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zcela zapad\u00e1 do koncepce popsan\u00e9 v\u00a0dokumentu [3] a\u00a0je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed organiza\u010dn\u00edho a\u00a0provozn\u00edho opat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u00dasp\u011b\u0161nost inteligentn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce a\u00a0hydroenergetick\u00e9 funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee a\u00a0soustavy n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed byla ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve prok\u00e1z\u00e1na, bylo dosa\u017eeno zaj\u00edmav\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f a\u00a0tyto v\u00fdsledky je mo\u017en\u00e9 vid\u011bt nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0[13\u201315]. P\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek si klade za c\u00edl ov\u011b\u0159it vliv polohy n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0povod\u00ed p\u0159i inteligentn\u00edm (adaptivn\u00edm) \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Je mo\u017eno p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v\u00fdsledky z\u00a0adaptivn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed budou pro n\u00e1dr\u017ee situovan\u00e9 v\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech povod\u00ed jin\u00e9. Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem je \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed provedeno zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 pro n\u00e1dr\u017e, kter\u00e1 je um\u00edst\u011bna v\u00a0horn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti vodn\u00edho toku, a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b pro n\u00e1dr\u017e, kter\u00e1 je um\u00edst\u011bna v\u00a0doln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti vodn\u00edho toku.<\/p>\n

Pou\u017eit\u00e9 metody<\/h2>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed model<\/h3>\n

Pro vytvo\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016ftok\u016f byl pou\u017eit zon\u00e1ln\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00ed model (ZPPM). Princip modelu je pops\u00e1n v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch odstavc\u00edch. Z\u00a0n\u011bkolikalet\u00e9 historick\u00e9 pr\u016ftokov\u00e9 \u0159ady pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016ftok\u016f jsou vy\u010dlen\u011bny jednotliv\u00e9 roky y = 1, 2\u2026, Y<\/em>, kde Y<\/em> zna\u010d\u00ed celkov\u00fd po\u010det let. Ze v\u0161ech rok\u016f jsou n\u00e1sledn\u011b vy\u010dlen\u011bny i\u00a0jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce m\u00a0= 1, 2\u2026, 12<\/em>\u2008s\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmi pr\u016ftoky Qm<\/sub><\/em> pro ka\u017ed\u00fd rok mno\u017einy y<\/em>. T\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem je vytvo\u0159ena mno\u017eina, kter\u00e1 je tvo\u0159ena pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edtoky vody do n\u00e1dr\u017ee za\u00a0cel\u00e9 sledovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed Y<\/em> pro jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce m<\/em>. V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci je potom nalezena minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnota minQm<\/sub><\/em> a\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnota maxQm<\/sub> <\/em>historick\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edtoku vody. Interval mezi hodnotami <minQm<\/sub><\/em>\u2009<\/sub>, maxQm<\/sub><\/em>> je rozd\u011blen na p\u0159edem zvolen\u00fd po\u010det z\u00f3n. Po\u010det z\u00f3n Z<\/em>\u00a0je v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci stejn\u00fd, velikost intervalu <min<\/em>Q<\/em>z<\/sup><\/em>m<\/sub><\/em>\u2009<\/sub>, max<\/em>Q<\/em>z<\/sup><\/em>m<\/sub><\/em>> se v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee li\u0161it. Velikost jednotliv\u00e9 z\u00f3ny je stanovena tak, aby spl\u0148ovala po\u017eadavek, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00f3na mus\u00ed obsahovat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejn\u00fd po\u010det prvk\u016f qm,y<\/sub><\/em>. Jednotliv\u00e9 prvky qm,y<\/sub><\/em> ka\u017ed\u00e9 mno\u017einy tvo\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b podmno\u017einu Q<\/em>z<\/sup><\/em>m<\/sub><\/em>.<\/p>\n

Podle po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodnoty p\u0159\u00edtoku vody Qc<\/sup>m<\/sub><\/em> v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edci m<\/em>, ve kter\u00e9m je rozhodov\u00e1no o\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, je vybr\u00e1na z\u00f3na z<\/em>, pro kterou plat\u00ed Qc<\/sup>m <\/sub><\/em>\u2208\u00a0<\/em><min<\/em>Q<\/em>z<\/sup><\/em>m<\/sub><\/em>\u2009<\/sub>, max<\/em>Q<\/em>z<\/sup><\/em>m<\/sub><\/em>>. Z\u00f3nou z<\/em>\u00a0proch\u00e1z\u00ed vybran\u00fd soubor historick\u00fdch \u0159ad s\u00a0= 1, 2\u2026, S<\/em>, kde S<\/em>\u00a0je celkov\u00fd po\u010det \u0159ad proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z\u00f3nou. Pro ka\u017edou \u0159adu v\u00a0souboru S<\/em>\u00a0plat\u00ed, \u017ee qm,s<\/sub><\/em>\u00a0\u2208\u00a0Q<\/em>z<\/sup><\/em>m<\/sub><\/em>. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dleny historick\u00fdch \u0159ad s<\/em>\u00a0souboru S<\/em>, kter\u00e9 jsou reprezentov\u00e1ny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edtoky qm+t,s<\/sub><\/em>\u00a0v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch m + t<\/em>, kde t<\/em> je po\u0159ad\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, jsou pak pou\u017eity pro ur\u010den\u00ed intervalu z\u00f3ny p\u0159edpov\u011bdi zp<\/em>. Pro t<\/em> plat\u00ed t = 1, 2\u2026, TP<\/em>, kde TP<\/em> je po\u010det p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch krok\u016f (m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f) a\u00a0qm+t,s<\/sub>\u00a0<\/em>\u2208 Qz<\/sup>p<\/sup><\/em>m+t<\/sub><\/em><\/em>. Pro po\u0159ad\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f m + t > 12<\/em> plat\u00ed m + t\u00a0\u2013 12<\/em>. Pro ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc p\u0159edpov\u011bdi m + t<\/em> je stanovena pouze jedna z\u00f3na p\u0159edpov\u011bdi zp<\/em> [10].<\/p>\n

Hodnota pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edtoku vody do n\u00e1dr\u017ee Q<\/em>p<\/sup><\/em>m+t<\/sub><\/em> v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edci i m<\/em>\u00a0+ t<\/em> je rovna hodnot\u011b vyskytuj\u00edc\u00ed se v\u00a0intervalu z\u00f3ny p\u0159edpov\u011bdi zp<\/em> s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016ftoky jsou potom p\u0159edpov\u011bzeny podle n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edho principu. Pro v\u0161echny prvky qm+t,s<\/sub><\/em> z\u00a0mno\u017einy\u00a0 je vytvo\u0159ena hustota rozd\u011blen\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti. Tvar spojit\u00e9 funkce je pro zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed troj\u00faheln\u00edkov\u00fd. Spodn\u00ed hrana je tvo\u0159ena intervalem <min, max<\/em>> a\u00a0vrchol troj\u00faheln\u00edku le\u017e\u00ed na p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 poloze modu Mod<\/em> veli\u010diny qm+t,s<\/sub><\/em>. K\u00a0ur\u010den\u00ed polohy modu je pou\u017eit p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee plat\u00ed:<\/p>\n\"mensik-vzorec-1\"<\/a>\n

Postup nalezen\u00ed polohy modu na intervalu <min, max<\/em>> je vyobrazen graficky na obr.\u00a01<\/em>.<\/p>\n\"mensik-1\"<\/a>\n

Obr.\u00a01. Postup nalezen\u00ed modu
\nFig. 1. Procedure to find modus<\/h6>\n

Potom pro p\u0159edpov\u011bzenou hodnotu p\u0159\u00edtoku vody do n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edci m + t<\/em> plat\u00ed:<\/p>\n\"mensik-vzorec-2\"<\/a>\n

Algoritmus vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed Q<\/em>p<\/sup><\/em>m + t<\/sub><\/em> pro v\u00edce krok\u016f (m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f) je zobrazen na obr.\u00a02<\/em>.<\/p>\n\"mensik-2\"<\/a>\n

Obr.\u00a02. Algoritmus vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi
\nFig. 2. Algorithm of making prediction<\/h6>\n

Algoritmus adaptivn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce<\/h3>\n

Adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee je zalo\u017eeno na klasick\u00e9m simula\u010dn\u00edm modelu (glob\u00e1ln\u00ed model). U\u00a0simula\u010dn\u00edho modelu jsou pravidla \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nahrazena opakovanou optimalizac\u00ed (lok\u00e1ln\u00ed model). Krok simula\u010dn\u00edho modelu je\u00a0T = 1, 2,\u2026, M<\/em>, kde M<\/em> je celkov\u00fd po\u010det krok\u016f (m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f). Algoritmus \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed je mo\u017eno popsat ve t\u0159ech kroc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 se postupn\u011b opakuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0prvn\u00edm kroku je vytvo\u0159ena p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edtok\u016f vody do n\u00e1dr\u017ee. K\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi je pou\u017eit ZPPM a\u00a0d\u00e9lka p\u0159edpov\u011bdi odpov\u00edd\u00e1 zvolen\u00e9mu po\u010dtu p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Ve druh\u00e9m kroku je sestaven optimaliza\u010dn\u00ed model n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed odtoky z\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee O\u03c4<\/sup><\/em> na \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9m obdob\u00ed jsou hled\u00e1ny optimalizac\u00ed v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu \u03c4 = 1, 2,\u2026\u2026, N<\/em>, kde N<\/em> je celkov\u00fd po\u010det krok\u016f. K\u00a0nalezen\u00ed O\u03c4<\/sup><\/em> je pou\u017eita metoda diferenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evoluce. Po\u010det p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f TP<\/em> je roven po\u010dtu \u010dasov\u00fdch krok\u016f N<\/em>. Okrajov\u00fdmi podm\u00ednkami jsou p\u0159edpov\u011bzen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtoky do n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednka \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed je objem vody v\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ei na konci \u010dasov\u00e9ho kroku \u03c4 = 0<\/em>. Ve\u00a0skute\u010dnosti by se jednalo o\u00a0nam\u011b\u0159enou hodnotu objemu vody v\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ei. Jako krit\u00e9rium optimalizace byl zvolen sou\u010det \u010dtverc\u016f odchylek mezi \u0159\u00eddic\u00edm odtokem W\u03c4<\/sup><\/em> a\u00a0skute\u010dn\u00fdm \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm odtokem O\u03c4<\/sup><\/em> vody z\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee, kter\u00fd je snaha minimalizovat. Kriteri\u00e1ln\u00ed funkce (3) je ve tvaru, kter\u00fd zaji\u0161\u0165uje rovnom\u011brn\u00e9 rozlo\u017een\u00ed nedod\u00e1vky vody mezi jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce. Pou\u017eit\u00ed druh\u00e9 mocniny ve funkci (3) je d\u00e1no p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed nedodan\u00e9 vody je h\u016f\u0159e p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 ne\u017e men\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed nedodan\u00e9 vody.<\/p>\n\"mensik-vzorec-3\"<\/a>\n

Ve t\u0159et\u00edm kroku se na z\u00e1klad\u011b skute\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edtoku a\u00a0nalezen\u00e9ho \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho odtoku, kter\u00fd odpov\u00edd\u00e1 prvn\u00edmu kroku lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu \u03c4 = 1<\/em>, provede v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m kroku T<\/em> simulace chov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee pomoc\u00ed simula\u010dn\u00edho modelu. Po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednkou pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed optimalizace je v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 velikost objemu vody v\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ei na konci \u010dasov\u00e9ho kroku. N\u00e1sledn\u011b je optimalizace posunuta o\u00a0jeden \u010dasov\u00fd krok.<\/p>\n

Kroky 1 a\u017e 3 se n\u00e1sledn\u011b opakuj\u00ed pro ka\u017ed\u00fd krok glob\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu T<\/em>. Opakov\u00e1n\u00edm jednotliv\u00fdch krok\u016f se z\u00e1rove\u0148 model adaptuje na nov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Cel\u00fd proces adaptace je ukon\u010den p\u0159i dosa\u017een\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9ho kroku T = M<\/em>.<\/p>\n

K\u00a0adaptivn\u00edmu \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee byl pou\u017eit program SOMVS (Simula\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0optimaliza\u010dn\u00ed model vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 soustavy) [16]. Ve zkr\u00e1cen\u00e9 form\u011b byl software publikov\u00e1n nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0impaktovan\u00e9m \u010dasopise [17] a\u00a0v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice [18]. SOMVS je licencovan\u00fd software Vysok\u00e9ho u\u010den\u00ed technick\u00e9ho v\u00a0Brn\u011b. Obecn\u011b je mo\u017eno software pou\u017e\u00edt pro strategick\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed (rozvoj, \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed) v\u00a0oblasti z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce vodn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed. Software umo\u017e\u0148uje naj\u00edt optim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f spojen\u00fdch se z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00edm obyvatelstva, pr\u016fmyslu, energetiky a\u00a0zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed vodou.<\/p>\n

Aplikace<\/h3>\n

Pro aplikaci byly vybr\u00e1ny dva m\u011brn\u00e9 profily, profil Vlask\u00e9 a\u00a0profil Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e. Oba m\u011brn\u00e9 profily le\u017e\u00ed na \u0159ece Morav\u011b. Profil Vlask\u00e9 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00a0horn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti povod\u00ed \u0159eky Moravy a\u00a0profil Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e je v\u00a0doln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti povod\u00ed \u0159eky Moravy. Profily byly vybr\u00e1ny s\u00a0c\u00edlem prov\u00e9st adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce v\u00a0profilech s\u00a0rozd\u00edlnou vodnost\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 viz\u00a0Qa<\/sub> v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku bylo provedeno vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Byly stanoveny nutn\u00e9 velikosti z\u00e1sobn\u00edch objem\u016f Vz<\/sub> pro dv\u011b fiktivn\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Prvn\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017e je situovan\u00e1 v\u00a0profilu Vlask\u00e9 a\u00a0druh\u00e1 v\u00a0profilu Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e. Z\u00e1sobn\u00ed objemy byly stanoveny na z\u00e1klad\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9 hodnoty nalep\u0161en\u00e9ho odtoku OP<\/sub> a\u00a0za p\u0159edpokladu dodr\u017een\u00ed stoprocentn\u00ed zabezpe\u010denosti odtoku vody z\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Hodnota nalep\u0161en\u00e9ho odtoku byla zvolena jako 0,3 (sou\u010dinitel nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1<\/em>) n\u00e1sobek dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku Qa<\/sub>. V\u00fdsledn\u00e9 hodnoty z\u00e1sobn\u00edch objem\u016f fiktivn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed jsou spolu s\u00a0ostatn\u00edmi hodnotami uvedeny v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sledn\u011b bylo provedeno adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce fiktivn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0obdob\u00ed let 2000 a\u017e 2006. Obdob\u00ed let 1950 a\u017e 2000 bylo pou\u017eito pro kalibraci, tzn.\u00a0pro vytvo\u0159en\u00ed ZPPM. Adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed bylo provedeno pro 7 r\u016fzn\u00fdch hodnot \u0159\u00eddic\u00edho (nalep\u0161en\u00e9ho) odtoku\u00a0\u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b se jednalo o\u00a0n\u00e1sobky sou\u010dinitele nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1<\/em> (0,4; 0,5; 0,6; 0,7; 0,75; 0,8 a\u00a00,9) a\u00a0odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnoty Qa<\/sub>. Pro ka\u017edou hodnotu \u0159\u00eddic\u00edho odtoku prob\u011bhlo celkem 24 v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f, dvan\u00e1ct pro \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011bzen\u00fdmi pr\u016ftoky (adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011bzen\u00fdmi pr\u016ftoky\u00a0\u2013 A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 P) a\u00a0dvan\u00e1ct pro \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi pr\u016ftoky (adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi pr\u016ftoky\u00a0\u2013 A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 R). Jednotliv\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty se od sebe li\u0161ily po\u010dtem \u010dasov\u00fdch krok\u016f lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu. V\u00fdpo\u010dty s\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi pr\u016ftoky slou\u017eily pro porovn\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, jeliko\u017e je pova\u017eujeme za ide\u00e1ln\u00ed stav\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0praxi nedosa\u017eiteln\u00fd. D\u00e1le bylo provedeno \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pro ka\u017edou hodnotu \u0159\u00eddic\u00edho odtoku pomoc\u00ed prost\u00e9 simulace (simula\u010dn\u00ed model\u00a0\u2013 SM). U\u00a0simula\u010dn\u00edho modelu prob\u00edh\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, ne\u017e je tomu u\u00a0optimaliza\u010dn\u00edho modelu. Omezuj\u00edc\u00ed podm\u00ednky jsou \u0159e\u0161eny postupn\u011b po jednotliv\u00fdch\u00a0\u010dasov\u00fdch kroc\u00edch a\u00a0v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m kroku je snahou, aby odtok vody z\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee byl roven hodnot\u011b \u0159\u00eddic\u00edho (nalep\u0161en\u00e9ho) odtoku. Simula\u010dn\u00ed model pova\u017eujeme za nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a\u00a0byl pou\u017eit pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f z\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u00dasp\u011b\u0161nost uva\u017eovan\u00fdch zp\u016fsob\u016f \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed byla vyhodnocena pomoc\u00ed krit\u00e9ria K<\/em>:<\/p>\n\"mensik-vzorec-4\"<\/a>\n

Pokud byl \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd odtok OT<\/sup><\/em> v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok WT<\/sup><\/em>, tak krit\u00e9rium v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m kroku T<\/em> bylo rovno nule (KT <\/sup>= 0)<\/em>. Pokud byl \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd odtok OT<\/sup><\/em> men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok WT<\/sup><\/em>, bylo krit\u00e9rium v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m kroku T<\/em> vyhodnoceno jako \u010dtverec rozd\u00edlu mezi \u0159\u00eddic\u00edm a\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm odtokem vody z\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee (KT <\/sup>= (WT <\/sup>– OT<\/sup> )2<\/sup> )<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Tabulka 1. Hodnoty z\u00e1sobn\u00edch prostor\u016f jednotliv\u00fdch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed
\nTable 1. Values of storage capacity of each reservoir<\/h5>\n\"mensik-tabulka-1\"<\/a>\n

Shrnut\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f<\/h2>\n

Z\u00a0d\u016fvodu velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00fdch variant jsou v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku prezentov\u00e1ny jen ty varianty, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0pohledu p\u0159ehledn\u00e9ho shrnut\u00ed maj\u00ed st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed v\u00fdznam. P\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce fiktivn\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0doln\u00edm profilu Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e je dosa\u017eeno vypov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed sou\u010diniteli nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1 = 0,7<\/em>. P\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s\u00a0d\u00e9lkou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na jeden nebo na dva m\u011bs\u00edce dop\u0159edu dosahuje \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed SM lep\u0161\u00edch hodnot krit\u00e9ria ne\u017e A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 P nebo A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 R.\u00a0P\u0159i A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 P a\u00a0A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 R na v\u00edce ne\u017e dva \u010dasov\u00e9 kroky dop\u0159edu dosahuje adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed lep\u0161\u00edch hodnot krit\u00e9ria ne\u017e p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed SM. Pr\u016fb\u011bhy krit\u00e9ri\u00ed u\u00a0uva\u017eovan\u00fdch zp\u016fsob\u016f \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pro rozd\u00edln\u00e9 d\u00e9lky p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed (po\u010det \u010dasov\u00fdch krok\u016f lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu) jsou zobrazeny na obr.\u00a03<\/em>.<\/p>\n\"mensik-3\"<\/a>\n

Obr.\u00a03. Doln\u00ed profil Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e\u00a0\u2013 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na \u03b1 = 0,7
\n<\/em>Fig. 3. Lower profile Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e\u00a0\u2013 control of outflow on the \u03b1 = 0.7<\/em><\/h6>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 skute\u010dnosti plat\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 pro v\u0161echny uva\u017eovan\u00e9 hodnoty \u0159\u00eddic\u00edch odtok\u016f. V\u00fdjimku tvo\u0159\u00ed pouze \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnot\u011b sou\u010dinitele nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1 = 0,75<\/em>, kde ji\u017e i\u00a0v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b d\u00e9lky p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na jeden a\u00a0dva m\u011bs\u00edce dop\u0159edu dojde u\u00a0A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 P a\u00a0A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 R k\u00a0lep\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm, ne\u017e je tomu u\u00a0SM.<\/p>\n

Na obr.\u00a04<\/em> jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny pr\u016fb\u011bhy uva\u017eovan\u00fdch \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed sou\u010diniteli nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1 = 0,7<\/em> a\u00a0pro\u00a0profil Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e. Z\u00a0d\u016fvodu p\u0159ehlednosti a\u00a0snadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed orientace v\u00a0grafu je vybr\u00e1na pouze \u010d\u00e1st \u010dasov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9 vznikla p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed porucha. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed SM je mo\u017eno na obr.\u00a04<\/em> vid\u011bt, \u017ee dosahuje nejhlub\u0161\u00ed poruchy p\u0159i vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9m srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0ob\u011bma variantami adaptivn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Oba p\u0159\u00edpady adaptivn\u00edch \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed d\u00e9lku p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f dop\u0159edu. D\u00e9lka p\u0159edpov\u011bdi \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f je zvolena na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho, \u017ee od t\u00e9to d\u00e9lky do\u0161lo k\u00a0ust\u00e1len\u00ed hodnoty krit\u00e9ria K<\/em>, krit\u00e9rium se ji\u017e s\u00a0rostouc\u00edm po\u010dtem m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159edpov\u011bdi (krok\u016f lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu) v\u00fdznamn\u011b nem\u011bnilo. Tato skute\u010dnost je patrn\u00e1 z\u00a0uveden\u00e9ho obr.\u00a03<\/em>. V\u00a0obou p\u0159\u00edpadech adaptivn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt, \u017ee dosahuj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, proto\u017ee hloubka poruchy nen\u00ed tak velk\u00e1 jako u\u00a0SM. A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 R zde dosahuje m\u00edrn\u011b lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f ne\u017e A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 P.<\/p>\n\"mensik-4\"<\/a>\n

Obr.\u00a04. Vybran\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v\u00a0profilu Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e
\nFig. 4. Selected process of outflow control in profile Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e<\/h6>\n

P\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce fiktivn\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0horn\u00edm profilu Vlask\u00e9 bylo dosa\u017eeno shodn\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f jako u\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017ee um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e9 v\u00a0doln\u00edm profilu Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e. V\u00fdjimku tvo\u0159\u00ed pouze \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na hodnotu sou\u010dinitele nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1 = 0,4<\/em> a\u00a0\u03b1 = 0,5<\/em>. Rozd\u00edl spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0tom, \u017ee A\u0158\u00a0\u2013 P zde nedosahuje nikdy lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f ne\u017e \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed SM. D\u016fvod je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdskytu poruchov\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, kdy nen\u00ed dostatek vody, a\u00a0v\u00a0nep\u0159esnosti p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edho modelu, kter\u00e1 se v\u00fdrazn\u011bji projev\u00ed u\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch pr\u016ftok\u016f. Obdobn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem jako pro doln\u00ed profil Krom\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u017e jsou na obr.\u00a05<\/em> a\u00a06<\/em> zobrazeny v\u00fdsledky pro horn\u00ed profil Vlask\u00e9.<\/p>\n\"mensik-5\"<\/a>\n

Obr.\u00a05. Doln\u00ed profil Vlask\u00e9\u00a0\u2013 \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na \u03b1 = 0,7
\n<\/em>Fig. 5. Higher profile Vlask\u00e9\u00a0\u2013 control of outflow on the \u03b1 = 0.7<\/em><\/h6>\n\"mensik-6\"<\/a>\n
Obr.\u00a06. Vybran\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v\u00a0profilu Vlask\u00e9
\nFig. 6. Selected process of outflow control in profile Vlask\u00e9<\/h6>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek si kladl za c\u00edl ov\u011b\u0159it vliv polohy n\u00e1dr\u017ee v\u00a0povod\u00ed p\u0159i inteligentn\u00edm (adaptivn\u00edm) \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b dosa\u017een\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f je mo\u017eno konstatovat, \u017ee z\u00a0pohledu po\u010dtu p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f (po\u010dtu \u010dasov\u00fdch krok\u016f lok\u00e1ln\u00edho modelu) je dosa\u017eeno v\u00a0obou profilech podobn\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. U\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na jeden a\u017e dva m\u011bs\u00edce jsou v\u00fdsledky ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed SM. S\u00a0p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstkem p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f dojde k\u00a0postupn\u00e9mu kles\u00e1n\u00ed krit\u00e9ria. K\u00a0ust\u00e1len\u00ed krit\u00e9ria dojde p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s\u00a0p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed na 5 a\u017e 6\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b se hodnota krit\u00e9ria ji\u017e nem\u011bn\u00ed nebo se m\u011bn\u00ed jen velmi m\u00e1lo.<\/p>\n

Adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dosahovala nejlep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f p\u0159i vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho odtoku. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 n\u00e1dr\u017e, kter\u00e1 je navr\u017eena na 0,3n\u00e1sobek dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku, \u0159\u00eddit na \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok, kter\u00fd odpov\u00edd\u00e1 0,7n\u00e1sobku dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku. Ov\u0161em v\u00a0d\u016fsledku klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011b\u0148, p\u0159i kter\u00fdch lze v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu hydrologick\u00e9ho roku o\u010dek\u00e1vat v\u00fdskyt dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00edch obdob\u00ed sucha st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch se s\u00a0obdob\u00edm p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00fdch de\u0161\u0165\u016f, m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku. Podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f uveden\u00fdch v\u00a0[19] hodnota dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku v\u00a0na\u0161ich toc\u00edch m\u016f\u017ee klesnout o\u00a020 a\u017e 40\u2005%.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee se pokles dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku, p\u0159i zachov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch po\u017eadavk\u016f na odb\u011br vody (\u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok), projev\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee dojde ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed hodnoty sou\u010dinitele nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1<\/em>. P\u0159i uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed pesimistick\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, uva\u017euj\u00edc\u00edho s\u00a0poklesem dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku o\u00a040\u2005%, by hodnota sou\u010dinitele nalep\u0161en\u00ed, p\u0159i zachov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho po\u017eadavku na odb\u011br vody, vzrostla z\u00a0hodnoty \u03b1 = 0,3<\/em> na hodnotu \u03b1 = 0,5<\/em>. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by do\u0161lo i\u00a0ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed po\u017eadavku na odb\u011br vody, tak se m\u016f\u017ee sou\u010dinitel nalep\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit hodnot\u011b \u03b1 = 0,6<\/em>. P\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed odtok odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed sou\u010diniteli nalep\u0161en\u00ed \u03b1 = 0,6<\/em> dosahuje adaptivn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee dobr\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f u\u00a0obou profil\u016f.<\/p>\n

Dosa\u017een\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky poukazuj\u00ed na mo\u017enost budouc\u00edho praktick\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed adaptivn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed u\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed situovan\u00fdch v\u00a0horn\u00ed a\u00a0i\u00a0v\u00a0doln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti povod\u00ed. Uveden\u00fd adaptivn\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce by mohl b\u00fdt prost\u0159edkem, kter\u00fdm by bylo mo\u017eno v\u00a0budoucnu zefektivnit zp\u016fsob hospoda\u0159en\u00ed s\u00a0vodou v\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00edch. Obecn\u011b m\u016f\u017eou inteligentn\u00ed zp\u016fsoby \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed p\u0159edstavovat podp\u016frn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj pro vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd dispe\u010dink, kter\u00e9mu zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f s\u00a0v\u00edce n\u00e1dr\u017eemi a\u00a0s\u00a0uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00edce \u00fa\u010del\u016f poskytnou vhodnou podporu p\u0159i procesu rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek je v\u00fdsledkem specifick\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumu FAST\u00ad<\/em>\u2011<\/em>S-16-3444 N\u00e1vrh hybridn\u00ed metody pro \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00ed funkce n\u00e1dr\u017ee.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent years, it is possible to observe more frequent occurrence of hydrological extremes, there is a more frequent occurrence of floods and deepening drought.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[652,653,656,654,655,657],"coauthors":[596,606],"class_list":["post-2702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-adaptivity","tag-intelligent-control","tag-open-water-reservoir","tag-optimization-model","tag-prediction-model","tag-storage-capacity"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2702"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2702\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30366,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2702\/revisions\/30366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2702"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=2702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}