{"id":26583,"date":"2023-10-09T19:47:31","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T18:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/2023\/10\/rozhovor-s-rndr-radimem-tolaszem-ph-d-klimatologem-ceskeho-hydrometeorologickeho-ustavu\/"},"modified":"2024-11-18T17:00:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-18T16:00:50","slug":"interview-with-rndr-radim-tolasz-ph-d-climatologist-of-the-czech-hydrometeorological-institute","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2023\/10\/interview-with-rndr-radim-tolasz-ph-d-climatologist-of-the-czech-hydrometeorological-institute\/","title":{"rendered":"Interview with RNDr. Radim Tolasz, Ph.D., climatologist of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/a>\n

Today, one individual cannot quickly mitigate the current impact of climate change that the entire world is facing by changing their behaviour. However, the promotion and spread of education is one of the main keys to making positive changes in a\u00a0significant part of the population. In an interview for VTEI, the\u00a0Czech representative in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climatologist RNDr. Radim Tolasz, Ph.D., from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), describes further steps to mitigate the\u00a0effects of climate change or, for example, his own first professional experience after 1980.<\/p>\n

Mr. Tolasz, you have been dealing with climatology, meteorology, and hydrology for a long time. Do you remember the moment you said to yourself that this field would be your \u201elifelong love\u201c?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Probably not, because the beginning of my professional \u201ecareer\u201c was very wide spread. I\u00a0studied physical geography and in my diploma thesis I\u00a0analysed the regime of sedimentation in the Odra basin. After joining the CHMI branch in Ostrava, I\u00a0concentrated on the so-called water bearing cadastre between 1931 to 1980, and there I\u00a0finally got to climatology via studying precipitation. I\u00a0remember very clearly that the runoff conditions on the \u010celadenka (which is a\u00a0small basin in the Moravian-Silesian Beskydy between Smrk and Kn\u011bhyn\u011b) in\u00a0the cadastre showed curious results affected by windward precipitation effects. This is probably where I\u00a0realized how significantly the climate affects other parts of the physical-geographical sphere. And looking back today, I\u00a0actually experienced paper, pen and calculator climatology in practice, then \u201ewrote\u201c programs in Fortran on punch cards that I\u00a0took to the computing centre, only to come back two days later to pick up the result of \u201eerror on line 154\u201c. Those were interesting times compared to today, when modellers prepare megabytes of data for us, on which we start several processes in the R programming language in a\u00a0few hours. I\u00a0really don\u2018t know when exactly my interest in climatology was born.<\/p>\n

Talk of possible climate change began as early as the 1970s. Can you recall your first awareness of this phenomenon?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

We discussed it for the first time at grammar school in Hav\u00ed\u0159ov in geography lessons, sometime around 1980. However, it was only basic information focused on the greenhouse effect and not very analytical. But it stuck with me, and when we discussed climate change in more detail a\u00a0few years later as part of\u00a0a\u00a0climatology lesson at the Faculty of Science in Brno, I\u00a0had something to build on. From today\u2018s\u00a0point of view, however, the information was not very accurate and detailed; in almost forty years climatology has taken a\u00a0huge step forward. Simply put, it was only an estimate of the behaviour of the atmosphere based on the laws of physics. Today, we already know a\u00a0lot about feedback, about the combination of natural climate variability and anthropogenic influences, and we can model these phenomena, which also gives us probabilistic estimates of the behaviour of the atmosphere in the near future. In its projections and estimates, climatology thus came between meteorology and its weather forecast and geological estimates of the next ice age, both in terms of time and accuracy.<\/p>\n

Are the manifestations of climate change that were predicted twenty to thirty years ago occurring at the moment, or did some of them surprise you?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Today we have already confirmed that the climate projections from the\u00a01980s were quite accurate for several decades ahead. The first IPCC report in 1990 estimated a\u00a0global temperature rise of 1 \u00b0C by 2025, and this will certainly be met and exceeded. At the time, little emphasis was placed on the fact that the temperature rise would be higher on land, and even higher, for example, in central Europe, with a\u00a0continental climate quite distant from the seas and oceans. And we can therefore be surprised that in our country the rise in temperature is almost double compared to global values. Moreover, even today, we are little aware that the problem for humans is not so much in averages as in extremes. Long heat waves with temperatures above 30 \u00b0C were unimaginable fifty years ago in the Czech Republic \u2013 and now they are an annual reality. At the same time, we have often emphasized that we do not expect a\u00a0long-term decrease in precipitation, which is still true today; however, we lack water in the landscape more and more often. Why? Because at a\u00a0higher temperature there is more evaporation. Even this surprises many people, as they do not realize the basic difference between water vapour and clouds in the atmosphere. The water that is missing in our landscape is kept in the form of water vapour at a\u00a0higher temperature of the atmosphere, and therefore does not increase the precipitation potential. Today\u2018s\u00a0upper estimate of the average temperature in 2050 in the\u00a0Czech Republic is at the level of 10 \u00b0C with an estimated error of \u00b1\u00a00.3\u00a0\u00b0C, and we have no reason not to believe these model outputs. Let\u2018s\u00a0just put it in context with the average temperature in the Czech Republic for the normal period 1991 to 2020, which is 8.3 \u00b0C. In less than thirty years, we could be another 2 \u00b0C warmer on average. What will the summer heat be like?<\/p>\n

And perhaps I\u00a0would add that in recent years in Europe, including in our country, the probability of so-called fire weather has increased. It is logical and corresponds to the previous information, and in reality we can observe it directly. The big fire last year in Bohemian Switzerland National Park was not extraordinary in its occurrence, but in its scope and duration, which was influenced by fire weather parameters. Last year\u2018s\u00a0wildfires in Northern Europe are totally extraordinary \u2013 they never appeared in these areas before. And this year\u2018s\u00a0summer season in the Mediterranean is also absolutely extraordinary from the point of view of the scope and duration of natural fires, and is most certainly related to the changes taking place in the climate system.<\/p>\n

Is it possible that for some reason, for example, due to the weakening of the Gulf Stream, climate change in the Czech Republic or in Europe will stop, or will \u201ereverse\u201c its course and it will start to cool down?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It is possible. Fluctuations in the volume and temperature of the Gulf Stream are normal, but some oceanographers estimate that the Gulf Stream will slow down in the coming centuries. However, the question remains how such a\u00a0gradual change can alter the entire ocean circulation system. The Gulf Stream is not an isolated element in the ocean; in nature, everything is connected, and\u00a0that applies to the ocean too. I\u2018d rather not rely on it when dealing with climate change.<\/p>\n

Do you think there are places in the world that will be transformed from inhabited to uninhabitable due to climate change?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Some climate models project, for example, for the Arabian Peninsula in the second half of the century, on some summer days, a\u00a0combination of high temperature above 50 \u00b0C and humidity above 70 %, which will be completely unsuitable for humans and the area will be uninhabitable in the outdoor environment. People will have to take refuge in air-conditioned spaces and not go out at all. For some shopping fans, this will probably not be a\u00a0change, but it is necessary to prepare for such a\u00a0situation. However, not everyone lives in the\u00a0developed and rich part of this region.<\/p>\n

TGM WRI cooperates with CHMI on your \u201ePERUN\u201c project, which is very ambitious. Can you say which outputs you are most looking forward to?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

We are currently analysing the first available climate scenario in the \u201ePERUN\u201c project, which we have prepared based on the pessimistic emission scenario SSP5-8.5. We look at dates that we think and hope will not be achieved on average. We are looking at the upper limit of the possible development of the characteristics of our climate until 2100. Few people realize that the year 2100 is not so far away \u2013 today\u2018s\u00a0young children will live to see it. That is also why I\u00a0am glad that these scenario data will be gradually analysed by our future colleagues to find out what could happen in our landscape, in forests, rivers, but also in groundwater. In connection with the second, more probable scenario according to SSP2-4.5, we will give the state administration, politicians, and the public information that I\u00a0personally consider important \u2013 what our climate will be like in ten, twenty, or fifty years. What conditions must our agriculture, power engineering, drinking water supply, construction, tourism, and other areas prepare for. And I\u00a0am most looking forward to the time when some of the \u201ePERUN\u201c project investigators will evaluate in ten or twenty years whether anyone took our forecasts into account at all.<\/p>\n

You are a regular participant in foreign conferences, and you have experience of similar foreign projects. How does the Czech Republic compare in this area? And is it possible to interconnect the outputs of\u00a0these\u00a0projects?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Not only is it possible, but it is quite common. The \u201ePERUN\u201c project is sometimes accused of being a\u00a0national project, closed within the borders of\u00a0the\u00a0Czech Republic. It is not so. Our modellers are part of the global community, climate scenario experts routinely discuss the possibilities of their use and inclusion in other European results, and hydrologists in neighbouring countries are eager to know how much water we send them in our scenarios. Of course, a\u00a0lot depends on how well we manage to get the results of the \u201ePERUN\u201c project into top peer-reviewed journals. It\u2018s\u00a0not about quantity, it\u2018s\u00a0about quality. In this context, it is good to remember that the seventh IPCC assessment cycle is starting, and it is therefore the right time to try to get our results into the new IPCC reports.<\/p>\n

Can you name five things each of us can do to mitigate the effects of climate change? Start with the most important, please.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

There is not much an individual can do to mitigate the current impact. In hot days they should change their daily routine if possible, in dry seasons they should not waste water, during a\u00a0gale they should not walk in the forest, and during floods they should not go canoeing. However, each individual has the\u00a0power to mitigate the effects of climate change in the future. The\u00a0most important thing is to elect a\u00a0political representation that will listen to science and promote climate measures. Furthermore, every person in our country could and should reduce their own consumption, which translates into a\u00a0much-needed lower consumption of raw materials and energy. Thirdly, I\u00a0consider it important to support and spread education, because only educated people understand the necessity of implementing the measures that climate change puts before us. It\u2018s\u00a0difficult, but fourthly, let\u2018s\u00a0try to ensure that only competent people make decisions\u2013 engineers about power engineering, foresters about forests, transport experts about transport, water managers about water, etc., and always with an overall view and, above all, in context. If these four wishes worked, then we don\u2018t need the fifth.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the influence and capabilities of each of us, on your website three years ago you decided to write the so-called \u201eClimate Ten Commandments of the Individual\u201c, where you try to summarize our options for responding to the ongoing climate change. There are two more points to be added to the list. Do you know what they will be?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

I\u00a0don\u2018t know, I\u00a0think the \u201eten commandments in eight points\u201c mentioned is a\u00a0good summary of the options that each of us as an individual have to influence future climate change. Little do we realize that the climate system has a\u00a0lot of inertia, that all our activities accumulate in it for decades and only then begin to manifest themselves. That is why we see a\u00a0mismatch between the\u00a0growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the rise in temperature, that is why greenhouse gas concentrations can increase continuously, but the global temperature of the atmosphere fluctuates. We must not forget the influence of the\u00a0oceans, which are also warming, and of large forest units, for example in\u00a0tropical rain regions, which, on the other hand, can absorb more or less greenhouse gases depending on their size and quality. These are all reasons why we need to change our behaviour now so that future generations have fewer problems.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Thank you for speaking to us.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ing. Adam Beran, Ph.D.<\/strong><\/span>
\nIng. Adam Vizina, Ph.D.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

RNDr. Radim Tolasz, Ph.D.<\/h2>\n

RNDr. Radim Tolasz, Ph.D., born on 19 March 1964 in Fr\u00fddek-M\u00edstek, has been working at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) since 1986 as a climatologist, in 2003\u20132011 he was deputy director. He is a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expert on climatological databases and climate data exchange. He\u00a0is also the co-author of the Czech climatological application CLIDATA, which has been used in CHMI since 2000. In cooperation with WMO, this application is used in more than 30 meteorological services around the world (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Serbia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Georgia, Ghana, Namibia, Nigeria, Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Tobago, and others). Since 2014, he has represented the Czech Republic in\u00a0the\u00a0Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He is the author and co-author of many scientific articles and publications, and since 2012 he has also been the editor-in-chief of the Czech Meteorological News (Meteorologick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy) and a member of the editorial board of\u00a0the\u00a0Slovak Meteorological Journal (Meteorologick\u00fd \u010dasopis).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Photo: J. Unucka<\/p>\n

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