![\"OLYMPUS](\"http:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Sulk\u016fv-_pramen_Brn\u011bnec.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n\u00davod<\/h2>\n
S\u00a0postupem klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky vznikaj\u00ed pro sektor vodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed nov\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy, se kter\u00fdmi se mus\u00ed postupn\u011b vypo\u0159\u00e1dat. Jsou ji\u017e identifikov\u00e1ny oblasti, je\u017e v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b maj\u00ed probl\u00e9my se zabezpe\u010den\u00edm dostatku vody, a\u00a0na z\u00e1klad\u011b hydrologick\u00e9ho modelov\u00e1n\u00ed jsou identifikov\u00e1ny oblasti, je\u017e jsou potenci\u00e1ln\u011b, kv\u016fli vlivu klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, zraniteln\u00e9 v\u00a0budouc\u00edch \u010dasov\u00fdch horizontech. Probl\u00e9my jsou se zabezpe\u010den\u00edm vody pro vod\u00e1rensk\u00e9 i\u00a0pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely. \u010cl\u00e1nek se zam\u011b\u0159uje na sou\u010dasn\u00e9 a\u00a0v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje.<\/p>\n
V\u00a0roce 2010 byla zpracov\u00e1na V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 studie pot\u0159eb a\u00a0zdroj\u016f vody v\u00a0Karlovarsk\u00e9m kraji [1], kter\u00e1 vyhodnotila zabezpe\u010denost po\u017eadavk\u016f na u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody (odb\u011bry, minim\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016ftoky, re\u017eimy hladin v\u00a0n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00edch\u00a0aj.) vzhledem k\u00a0dostupn\u00fdm kapacit\u00e1m vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f (pr\u016ftok\u016fm ve vodn\u00edch toc\u00edch a\u00a0disponibiln\u00edch z\u00e1sob ve vodn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00edch). Tato studie hodnotila zabezpe\u010denost pro\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 i\u00a0v\u00fdhledov\u00e9 hydrologick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky.<\/p>\n
Tabulka 1. D\u00edl\u010d\u00ed povod\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje (DB\u010c\u00a0\u2013 datab\u00e1zov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, \u010cHP\u00a0\u2013 \u010d\u00edslo hydrologick\u00e9ho po\u0159ad\u00ed)
\nTable 1. Catchments of the Karlovy Vary district (DB\u010c\u00a0\u2013 database number, \u010cHP\u00a0\u2013 number of hydrological order)<\/h5>\n![\"beran-tabulka-1\"](\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\")
<\/a>\nJi\u017e ze z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f t\u00e9to studie vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje se nach\u00e1z\u00ed oblasti, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed probl\u00e9my se zabezpe\u010den\u00edm dostatku vody v\u00a0bezde\u0161tn\u00fdch obdob\u00edch. Tyto probl\u00e9my se ukazuj\u00ed ji\u017e v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed a\u00a0i\u00a0pro v\u00fdhledov\u00e1 obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e1 uva\u017euj\u00ed postup klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn, t\u011bchto zraniteln\u00fdch oblast\u00ed podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f modelov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1. Identifikac\u00ed zraniteln\u00fdch oblast\u00ed a\u00a0n\u00e1vrhem adapta\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed se zab\u00fdval nap\u0159\u00edklad projekt Navrhov\u00e1n\u00ed adapta\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed pro sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na hydrologickou bilanci z\u00a0roku 2012, kter\u00fd se zam\u011b\u0159il na \u00fazem\u00ed povod\u00ed Orlice, Chrudimky a\u00a0Bl\u0161anky [2]. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b definov\u00e1n\u00ed zraniteln\u00fdch oblast\u00ed z\u00a0hlediska nedostatku vody na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cR v\u00a0roce 2015 byl Karlovarsk\u00fd kraj vyhodnocen jako m\u00edrn\u011b a\u017e st\u0159edn\u011b zraniteln\u00fd [3, 4].<\/p>\n
Od roku 2015 je ve spolupr\u00e1ci V\u00daV TGM,\u00a0v.\u00a0v.\u00a0i., a\u00a0st\u00e1tn\u00edho podniku Oh\u0159e \u0159e\u0161en navazuj\u00edc\u00ed projekt, jen\u017e m\u00e1 za \u00fakol vytvo\u0159en\u00ed certifikovan\u00e9 metodiky pro n\u00e1vrh opat\u0159en\u00ed vedouc\u00edch k\u00a0zabezpe\u010denosti po\u017eadavk\u016f na u\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vod v\u00a0obdob\u00ed nedostatku vody s\u00a0d\u016frazem na maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed vyu\u017eit\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed infrastruktury. Projekt m\u00e1 n\u00e1zev Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f ve vybran\u00fdch oblastech Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje a\u00a0je spolufinancov\u00e1n Ministerstvem zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed \u010cR. V\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku jsou pops\u00e1ny v\u00fdsledky hydrologick\u00e9ho modelov\u00e1n\u00ed pro d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed povod\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje, je\u017e bylo jedn\u00edm z\u00a0v\u00fdsledk\u016f prvn\u00edho roku \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9ho projektu. V\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch letech budou pro boj s\u00a0nedostatkem vody v\u00a0r\u00e1mci projektu navr\u017eena konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed pro identifikovan\u00e9 lokality.<\/p>\n
Data a\u00a0metody<\/h2>\n
Karlovarsk\u00fd kraj m\u00e1 rozlohu 3\u2009314\u2008km2<\/sup>. V\u00a0severn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti kraje le\u017e\u00ed Kru\u0161n\u00e9 hory s\u00a0nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed horou Kl\u00ednovec (1\u2009244\u00a0m\u00a0n.\u00a0m.). P\u00e1te\u0159n\u00ed \u0159eka Oh\u0159e rozd\u011bluje kraj p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b v\u00a0polovin\u011b a\u00a0odd\u011bluje Kru\u0161n\u00e9 hory na severu od Slavkovsk\u00e9ho lesa (Lesn\u00fd, 983\u00a0m\u00a0n.\u00a0m.) na jihoz\u00e1pad\u011b a\u00a0Doupovsk\u00fdch hor (Hradi\u0161t\u011b, 934\u00a0m\u00a0n.\u00a0m.) na jihov\u00fdchod\u011b. Slavkovsk\u00fd les a\u00a0Doupovsk\u00e9 hory jsou od sebe odd\u011blen\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edtokem Oh\u0159e, \u0159ekou Teplou. Mezi dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtoky Oh\u0159e pat\u0159\u00ed Rolava, Svatava, Libock\u00fd potok, Odrava a\u00a0Byst\u0159ice.<\/p>\nPlocha Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje byla pro \u00fa\u010dely hydrologick\u00e9ho modelov\u00e1n\u00ed rozd\u011blena na 11 d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed o\u00a0podobn\u00e9 rozloze, p\u0159ehled se z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi identifika\u010dn\u00edmi \u00fadaji je uveden v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>. Pro anal\u00fdzu sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu hydrologick\u00e9 bilance a\u00a0pro kalibraci hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu Bilan byla zvolena \u010dasov\u00e1 \u0159ada 1961\u20132010. K\u00a0dispozici byly \u0159ady teplot, sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadech, kdy nebyly k\u00a0dispozici hodnoty odtoku p\u0159\u00edmo pro vybran\u00fd uz\u00e1v\u011brov\u00fd profil, byly hodnoty dopo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny ode\u010dten\u00edm mezipovod\u00ed (uvedeno v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 sloupec v\u00fdpo\u010det odtoku).<\/p>\nModel Bilan<\/h3>\n
Pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na povod\u00edch byl pou\u017eit konceptu\u00e1ln\u00ed model Bilan simuluj\u00edc\u00ed hydrologickou bilanci v\u00a0denn\u00edm \u010di m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku, nap\u0159.\u00a0[5\u20137]. Pro pot\u0159eby modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance v\u00a0p\u0159edkl\u00e1dan\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku byl pou\u017eit m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed krok v\u00fdpo\u010dtu. Vstupn\u00edmi daty jsou \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0teploty vzduchu a\u00a0pro kalibraci modelu i\u00a0pozorovan\u00fd odtok. Model je \u0159\u00edzen v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed verzi osmi voln\u00fdmi parametry, v\u00fdpo\u010dtem se modeluje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace, \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar, infiltrace do z\u00f3ny aerace, pr\u016fsak touto z\u00f3nou, z\u00e1soba vody ve sn\u011bhu, z\u00e1soba vody v\u00a0p\u016fd\u011b a\u00a0z\u00e1soba podzemn\u00ed vody. V\u00fdpo\u010det potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace je prov\u00e1d\u011bn bu\u010f v\u00fdpo\u010dtem zalo\u017een\u00fdm na vegeta\u010dn\u00edch z\u00f3n\u00e1ch [8], nebo v\u00fdpo\u010dtem zalo\u017een\u00fdm na slune\u010dn\u00edm z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed pro ur\u010ditou zem\u011bpisnou \u0161\u00ed\u0159ku [9]. Odtok je modelov\u00e1n jako sou\u010det t\u0159\u00ed slo\u017eek\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho, hypodermick\u00e9ho a\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku. V\u00a0p\u0159edkl\u00e1dan\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku se zam\u011b\u0159ujeme na zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot vzduchu, sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f, v\u00fdparu, z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku a\u00a0celkov\u00e9ho odtoku.<\/p>\n
Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/h3>\n
Pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edch zm\u011bn ve veli\u010din\u00e1ch hydrologick\u00e9 bilance byly vybr\u00e1ny dva budouc\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty, a\u00a0sice obdob\u00ed 2021\u20132050 a\u00a02071\u20132099. Tato obdob\u00ed byla vybr\u00e1na na z\u00e1klad\u011b obdobn\u00fdch studi\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00fdch ve V\u00daV TGM,\u00a0v.\u00a0v.\u00a0i., v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech, aby byla zaji\u0161t\u011bna konzistentnost v\u00fdsledk\u016f pro jejich porovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. K\u00a0modelov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na hydrologickou bilanci bylo vybr\u00e1no celkem 15 simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (RCM), kter\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132099. RCM jsou v\u00fdstupem projektu ENSEMBLES. V\u0161echny simulace byly \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 emisn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em SRES A1B s\u00a0prostorov\u00fdm rozli\u0161en\u00edm 25\u00a0\u00d7\u00a025\u2008km. Uva\u017eov\u00e1no bylo 15 RCM simulac\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159mi glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi klimatick\u00fdmi modely (tabulka 2<\/em>). Jako v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 hodnota zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 veli\u010diny byl br\u00e1n pr\u016fm\u011br z\u00a0t\u011bchto 15 simulac\u00ed. Popis vybran\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f je uveden ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0Hanel\u00a0aj. [10] nebo Hanel a\u00a0Vizina [11]. K\u00a0dispozici byla data za pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132010. Zm\u011bny bilan\u010dn\u00edch prvk\u016f byly br\u00e1ny k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010.<\/p>\nTabulka 2. P\u0159ehled simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (RCM)
\nTable 2. Regional climate model simulations (RCM)<\/h5>\n<\/a>\nV\u00fdsledky<\/h2>\nPozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed<\/h3>\n
Vzhledem k\u00a0dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouh\u00fdm pozorovan\u00fdm \u010dasov\u00fdm \u0159ad\u00e1m 1961\u20132010 byly spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodnoty jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f hydrologick\u00e9 bilance pro \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty 1961\u20131990 a\u00a01981\u20132010. V\u00a0klimatologii jsou jako standardn\u00ed uva\u017eov\u00e1na t\u0159icetilet\u00e1 obdob\u00ed, \u010dasto je pro kontroln\u00ed klima voleno obdob\u00ed 1961\u20131990.<\/span> Zm\u011bny ud\u00e1vaj\u00ed pozorovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance. Hodnoty jsou uvedeny v\u00a0tabulce 3<\/span><\/span><\/em>. Zm\u011bny v\u00a0t\u011bchto pozorovan\u00fdch obdob\u00edch nejsou v\u011bt\u0161inou v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, nicm\u00e9n\u011b jsou ji\u017e viditeln\u00e9. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed zm\u011bna celkov\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,5\u2008\u00b0C. P\u0159i bli\u017e\u0161\u00edm pohledu na v\u00fdsledky [12] je vid\u011bt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed oteplen\u00ed v\u00a0zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. S\u00a0t\u00edmto souvis\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar b\u011bhem t\u011bchto m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Vlivem popsan\u00fdch zm\u011bn se b\u011bhem jarn\u00edho t\u00e1n\u00ed vs\u00e1kne do podzemn\u00edch z\u00e1sob men\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed vod (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpar a\u00a0povrchov\u00fd odtok), kter\u00e9 by m\u011bly dotovat povrchov\u00e9 toky b\u011bhem letn\u00edch such\u00fdch obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\nPr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny se v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1961\u20131990 pohybovaly v\u00a0rozsahu <\/span>600\u2013800\u2008mm v\u00a0povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e, v\u00a0povod\u00ed M\u017ee pr\u016fm\u011br nep\u0159esahoval 650\u2008mm, v\u00a0povod\u00ed St\u0159ely 600\u2008mm a\u00a0v\u00a0povod\u00ed Bl\u0161anky m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 500\u2008mm. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010<\/span> byl zaznamen\u00e1n n\u00e1r\u016fst sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u00a0rozsahu 3\u201310\u00a0%. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny jsou dosahov\u00e1ny p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0horsk\u00fdch oblastech Kru\u0161n\u00fdch hor a\u00a0Smr\u010din (\u010d\u00e1st Kru\u0161nohorsk\u00e9 pahorkatiny) na severu a\u00a0severoz\u00e1pad\u011b \u00fazem\u00ed. Na jihov\u00fdchodn\u00edm okraji \u00fazem\u00ed se ji\u017e naopak na sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9m \u00fahrnu projevuje sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fd st\u00edn Kru\u0161n\u00fdch hor.<\/span><\/p>\nNa velikosti celkov\u00e9ho odtoku se na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje v\u00fdznamn\u011b projevuje vliv orografie. Odtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed a\u00a0severn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159esahuje 300\u2008mm ro\u010dn\u011b (povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e po Cheb, Oh\u0159e po Karlovy Vary). V\u00a0povod\u00ed Tepl\u00e9 \u010dinil pr\u016fm\u011br p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 250\u2008mm. V\u00a0doln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti kraje v\u00a0povod\u00ed St\u0159ely a\u00a0v\u00a0povod\u00ed Bl\u0161anky kles\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 odtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka d\u00edky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teplot\u011b vzduchu a\u017e pod 100\u2008mm ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n
Budouc\u00ed zm\u011bny v\u00a0hydrologick\u00e9 bilanci<\/h3>\nTeplota<\/h4>\n
Podle modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat ze simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f se na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota vzduchu v\u00a0budouc\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu 2021\u20132050 o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1\u2008\u00b0C vzhledem k\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9mu pr\u016fm\u011bru 1981\u20132010. Nejv\u00edce se bude oteplovat v\u00a0zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (o\u00a01,2\u2008\u00b0C), nejm\u00e9n\u011b pak v\u00a0jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (o\u00a00,8\u2008\u00b0C). Ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu 2071\u20132099 ukazuj\u00ed modely zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,7\u2008\u00b0C v\u016f\u010di sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu obdob\u00ed. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed oteplen\u00ed vykazuj\u00ed zimn\u00ed (o\u00a03,1\u2008\u00b0C) a\u00a0letn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce (o\u00a03\u2008\u00b0C). V\u00a0podzimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch je n\u00e1r\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b o\u00a02,7\u2008\u00b0C, v\u00a0jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch je n\u00e1r\u016fst nejmen\u0161\u00ed o\u00a02,2\u2008\u00b0C. Zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty k\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9mu obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny na obr.\u00a01.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nObr.\u00a01. Absolutn\u00ed zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty vzduchu v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 od sou\u010dasnosti 1981\u20132010; DJF\u00a0\u2013 prosinec, leden, \u00fanor, MAM\u00a0\u2013 b\u0159ezen, duben, kv\u011bten, JJA\u00a0\u2013 \u010derven, \u010dervenec, srpen, SON\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen, listopad
\nFig. 1. Absolute changes in mean air temperature in the scenario period 2071\u20132099 (with respect to 1981\u20132010); DJF\u00a0\u2013 December, January, February, MAM\u00a0\u2013 March, May, June, JJA\u00a0\u2013 June, July, August, SON\u00a0\u2013 September, October, November<\/h6>\nSr\u00e1\u017eky<\/h4>\n
Zm\u011bny v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9m ro\u010dn\u00edm sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9m \u00fahrnu nejsou v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 ani pro jeden budouc\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont, v\u00a0obou p\u0159\u00edpadech je zm\u011bna do + 7\u00a0%. Pro d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2021\u20132050 vych\u00e1z\u00ed jarn\u00ed a\u00a0letn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 beze zm\u011bny, zimn\u00ed a\u00a0podzimn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce vykazuj\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst od 6 do 11\u00a0% vzhledem k\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9mu horizontu 1981\u20132010. Pro vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modelov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 je typick\u00fd vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek b\u011bhem zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f (13\u201325\u00a0%), kter\u00fd vyva\u017euje pokles b\u011bhem letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f (7\u201314\u00a0%). Zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny na obr.\u00a02<\/span><\/span><\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nObr.\u00a02. Relativn\u00ed zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 od sou\u010dasnosti 1981\u20132010; DJF\u00a0\u2013 prosinec, leden, \u00fanor, MAM\u00a0\u2013 b\u0159ezen, duben, kv\u011bten, JJA\u00a0\u2013 \u010derven, \u010dervenec, srpen, SON\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen, listopad
\nFig. 2. Relative changes in mean precipitation in the scenario period 2071\u20132099 (with respect to 1981\u20132010); DJF\u00a0\u2013 December, January, February, MAM\u00a0\u2013 March, May, June, JJA\u00a0\u2013 June, July, August, SON\u00a0\u2013 September, October, November<\/h6>\nOdtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka<\/h4>\n
Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed odtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka se v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00fdch horizontech 2021\u20132050 a\u00a02071\u20132099<\/span> t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezm\u011bn\u00ed, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zm\u011bny jsou do 5\u00a0%. Pro sezonn\u00ed zm\u011bny je typick\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky b\u011bhem zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, pro bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed
\n<\/span>2021\u20132050<\/span> do 24\u00a0%, pro vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont do 32\u00a0%. V\u00a0ostatn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky, b\u011bhem letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a\u017e o\u00a030\u00a0%. Zm\u011bny odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky v\u00a0budouc\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny na obr.\u00a03<\/span><\/span><\/em>. Pro zm\u011bny z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku na povod\u00ed je typick\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd \u00fabytek b\u011bhem letn\u00edch a\u00a0tak\u00e9 podzimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\nZm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance jsou podrobn\u011bji pops\u00e1ny a\u00a0uvedeny v\u00a0periodick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b k\u00a0projektu [12].<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nObr.\u00a03. Relativn\u00ed zm\u011bny odtokov\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 od sou\u010dasnosti 1981\u20132010; DJF\u00a0\u2013 prosinec, leden, \u00fanor, MAM\u00a0\u2013 b\u0159ezen, duben, kv\u011bten, JJA\u00a0\u2013 \u010derven, \u010dervenec, srpen, SON\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen, listopad
\nFig. 3. Relative changes in mean runoff in the scenario period 2071\u20132099 (with respect to 1981\u20132010); DJF\u00a0\u2013 December, January, February, MAM\u00a0\u2013 March, May, June, JJA\u00a0\u2013 June, July, August, SON\u00a0\u2013 September, October, November<\/h6>\nZ\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n
Na z\u00e1klad\u011b modelov\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bn hydrologick\u00e9 bilance se potvrdilo, \u017ee postup klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny se Karlovarsk\u00e9mu kraji v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nevyh\u00fdb\u00e1. Charakter prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch a\u00a0modelovan\u00fdch zm\u011bn hydrologick\u00e9 bilance v\u00a0Karlovarsk\u00e9m kraji je srovnateln\u00fd se zm\u011bnami prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmi v\u00a0m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku cel\u00e9 \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. Vliv vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch teplot vzduchu v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu cel\u00e9ho roku spolu se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdmi sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdmi \u00fahrny b\u011bhem zimy zvy\u0161uje odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky vodn\u00edch tok\u016f a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 zvy\u0161uje \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar b\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed. To m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek nedostate\u010dnou akumulaci vody ve sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvce, kter\u00e1 by se b\u011bhem postupn\u00e9ho jarn\u00edho t\u00e1n\u00ed vsakovala do kolektor\u016f podzemn\u00edch vod. Dostate\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby podzemn\u00edch vod jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro dotov\u00e1n\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch tok\u016f z\u00e1kladn\u00edm odtokem b\u011bhem p\u0159elomu l\u00e9ta a\u00a0podzimu (srpen, z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed), kdy je m\u00e9n\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b del\u0161\u00edch bezde\u0161tn\u00fdch obdob\u00ed, jako tomu bylo nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0roce 2015, se dostupnost vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f o\u00a0to zhor\u0161uje.<\/p>\n
Tabulka 3. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 a\u00a0hydrologick\u00e9 charakteristiky d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje; drobn\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mezi sr\u00e1\u017ekami a\u00a0sou\u010dtem \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu s\u00a0celkov\u00fdm odtokem jsou zp\u016fsobeny zm\u011bnou z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody
\nTable 3. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of Karlovy Vary district catchments<\/h5>\n<\/a>\nPopsan\u00e9 zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed probl\u00e9my s\u00a0nedostate\u010dn\u00fdm zabezpe\u010den\u00edm vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f v\u00a0oblasti Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje. \u0158e\u0161en\u00fd projekt Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f ve vybran\u00fdch oblastech Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje si klade za c\u00edl identifikovat konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed lokality ohro\u017een\u00e9 nedostatkem vody a\u00a0navrhnout \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 adapta\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed pro boj s\u00a0nedostatkem vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f na t\u011bchto lokalit\u00e1ch. Projekt je \u0159e\u0161en ve spolupr\u00e1ci V\u00daV TGM,\u00a0v.\u00a0v.\u00a0i., a\u00a0Povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e,\u00a0s.\u00a0p., s\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm term\u00ednem dokon\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2018.<\/p>\n
Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n
\u010cl\u00e1nek vznikl na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdzkumu prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9ho v\u00a0r\u00e1mci projektu Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f ve vybran\u00fdch oblastech Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje (QJ1520318), kter\u00fd je financov\u00e1n Ministerstvem zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed \u010cR v\u00a0r\u00e1mci programu KUS. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e zm\u011bny klimatu byly vytvo\u0159eny v\u00a0r\u00e1mci projektu TA02020320, kter\u00fd byl spolufinancov\u00e1n Technologickou agenturou \u010cR.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the Karlovy Vary district, areas with lack of drinking and industrial water were identified. Since 2015, in cooperation of TGM WRI, p. r. i., and state enterprise Povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e a project called \u201eIncreasing water resources availability in selected regions of Karlovy Vary district\u201c is financed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2464,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[83,96,106,583],"coauthors":[124,34,551],"class_list":["post-2521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-bilan-model","tag-climate-change","tag-hydrological-balance","tag-water-resources-availability"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2521"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30356,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521\/revisions\/30356"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2521"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=2521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Plocha Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje byla pro \u00fa\u010dely hydrologick\u00e9ho modelov\u00e1n\u00ed rozd\u011blena na 11 d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed o\u00a0podobn\u00e9 rozloze, p\u0159ehled se z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi identifika\u010dn\u00edmi \u00fadaji je uveden v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>. Pro anal\u00fdzu sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu hydrologick\u00e9 bilance a\u00a0pro kalibraci hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu Bilan byla zvolena \u010dasov\u00e1 \u0159ada 1961\u20132010. K\u00a0dispozici byly \u0159ady teplot, sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadech, kdy nebyly k\u00a0dispozici hodnoty odtoku p\u0159\u00edmo pro vybran\u00fd uz\u00e1v\u011brov\u00fd profil, byly hodnoty dopo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny ode\u010dten\u00edm mezipovod\u00ed (uvedeno v\u00a0tabulce 1<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 sloupec v\u00fdpo\u010det odtoku).<\/p>\n Pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na povod\u00edch byl pou\u017eit konceptu\u00e1ln\u00ed model Bilan simuluj\u00edc\u00ed hydrologickou bilanci v\u00a0denn\u00edm \u010di m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku, nap\u0159.\u00a0[5\u20137]. Pro pot\u0159eby modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance v\u00a0p\u0159edkl\u00e1dan\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku byl pou\u017eit m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed krok v\u00fdpo\u010dtu. Vstupn\u00edmi daty jsou \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0teploty vzduchu a\u00a0pro kalibraci modelu i\u00a0pozorovan\u00fd odtok. Model je \u0159\u00edzen v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed verzi osmi voln\u00fdmi parametry, v\u00fdpo\u010dtem se modeluje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace, \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar, infiltrace do z\u00f3ny aerace, pr\u016fsak touto z\u00f3nou, z\u00e1soba vody ve sn\u011bhu, z\u00e1soba vody v\u00a0p\u016fd\u011b a\u00a0z\u00e1soba podzemn\u00ed vody. V\u00fdpo\u010det potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace je prov\u00e1d\u011bn bu\u010f v\u00fdpo\u010dtem zalo\u017een\u00fdm na vegeta\u010dn\u00edch z\u00f3n\u00e1ch [8], nebo v\u00fdpo\u010dtem zalo\u017een\u00fdm na slune\u010dn\u00edm z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed pro ur\u010ditou zem\u011bpisnou \u0161\u00ed\u0159ku [9]. Odtok je modelov\u00e1n jako sou\u010det t\u0159\u00ed slo\u017eek\u00a0\u2013 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho, hypodermick\u00e9ho a\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku. V\u00a0p\u0159edkl\u00e1dan\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku se zam\u011b\u0159ujeme na zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot vzduchu, sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f, v\u00fdparu, z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku a\u00a0celkov\u00e9ho odtoku.<\/p>\n Pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edch zm\u011bn ve veli\u010din\u00e1ch hydrologick\u00e9 bilance byly vybr\u00e1ny dva budouc\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty, a\u00a0sice obdob\u00ed 2021\u20132050 a\u00a02071\u20132099. Tato obdob\u00ed byla vybr\u00e1na na z\u00e1klad\u011b obdobn\u00fdch studi\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00fdch ve V\u00daV TGM,\u00a0v.\u00a0v.\u00a0i., v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech, aby byla zaji\u0161t\u011bna konzistentnost v\u00fdsledk\u016f pro jejich porovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. K\u00a0modelov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na hydrologickou bilanci bylo vybr\u00e1no celkem 15 simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (RCM), kter\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132099. RCM jsou v\u00fdstupem projektu ENSEMBLES. V\u0161echny simulace byly \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 emisn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em SRES A1B s\u00a0prostorov\u00fdm rozli\u0161en\u00edm 25\u00a0\u00d7\u00a025\u2008km. Uva\u017eov\u00e1no bylo 15 RCM simulac\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159mi glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi klimatick\u00fdmi modely (tabulka 2<\/em>). Jako v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 hodnota zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 veli\u010diny byl br\u00e1n pr\u016fm\u011br z\u00a0t\u011bchto 15 simulac\u00ed. Popis vybran\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f je uveden ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0Hanel\u00a0aj. [10] nebo Hanel a\u00a0Vizina [11]. K\u00a0dispozici byla data za pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132010. Zm\u011bny bilan\u010dn\u00edch prvk\u016f byly br\u00e1ny k\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010.<\/p>\n Vzhledem k\u00a0dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouh\u00fdm pozorovan\u00fdm \u010dasov\u00fdm \u0159ad\u00e1m 1961\u20132010 byly spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodnoty jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f hydrologick\u00e9 bilance pro \u010dasov\u00e9 horizonty 1961\u20131990 a\u00a01981\u20132010. V\u00a0klimatologii jsou jako standardn\u00ed uva\u017eov\u00e1na t\u0159icetilet\u00e1 obdob\u00ed, \u010dasto je pro kontroln\u00ed klima voleno obdob\u00ed 1961\u20131990.<\/span> Zm\u011bny ud\u00e1vaj\u00ed pozorovan\u00e9 zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance. Hodnoty jsou uvedeny v\u00a0tabulce 3<\/span><\/span><\/em>. Zm\u011bny v\u00a0t\u011bchto pozorovan\u00fdch obdob\u00edch nejsou v\u011bt\u0161inou v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, nicm\u00e9n\u011b jsou ji\u017e viditeln\u00e9. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed zm\u011bna celkov\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,5\u2008\u00b0C. P\u0159i bli\u017e\u0161\u00edm pohledu na v\u00fdsledky [12] je vid\u011bt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed oteplen\u00ed v\u00a0zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. S\u00a0t\u00edmto souvis\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar b\u011bhem t\u011bchto m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Vlivem popsan\u00fdch zm\u011bn se b\u011bhem jarn\u00edho t\u00e1n\u00ed vs\u00e1kne do podzemn\u00edch z\u00e1sob men\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed vod (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpar a\u00a0povrchov\u00fd odtok), kter\u00e9 by m\u011bly dotovat povrchov\u00e9 toky b\u011bhem letn\u00edch such\u00fdch obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny se v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1961\u20131990 pohybovaly v\u00a0rozsahu <\/span>600\u2013800\u2008mm v\u00a0povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e, v\u00a0povod\u00ed M\u017ee pr\u016fm\u011br nep\u0159esahoval 650\u2008mm, v\u00a0povod\u00ed St\u0159ely 600\u2008mm a\u00a0v\u00a0povod\u00ed Bl\u0161anky m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 500\u2008mm. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010<\/span> byl zaznamen\u00e1n n\u00e1r\u016fst sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u00a0rozsahu 3\u201310\u00a0%. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny jsou dosahov\u00e1ny p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0horsk\u00fdch oblastech Kru\u0161n\u00fdch hor a\u00a0Smr\u010din (\u010d\u00e1st Kru\u0161nohorsk\u00e9 pahorkatiny) na severu a\u00a0severoz\u00e1pad\u011b \u00fazem\u00ed. Na jihov\u00fdchodn\u00edm okraji \u00fazem\u00ed se ji\u017e naopak na sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9m \u00fahrnu projevuje sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fd st\u00edn Kru\u0161n\u00fdch hor.<\/span><\/p>\n Na velikosti celkov\u00e9ho odtoku se na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje v\u00fdznamn\u011b projevuje vliv orografie. Odtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka v\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed a\u00a0severn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159esahuje 300\u2008mm ro\u010dn\u011b (povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e po Cheb, Oh\u0159e po Karlovy Vary). V\u00a0povod\u00ed Tepl\u00e9 \u010dinil pr\u016fm\u011br p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 250\u2008mm. V\u00a0doln\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti kraje v\u00a0povod\u00ed St\u0159ely a\u00a0v\u00a0povod\u00ed Bl\u0161anky kles\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 odtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka d\u00edky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teplot\u011b vzduchu a\u017e pod 100\u2008mm ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n Podle modelov\u00e1n\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat ze simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f se na \u00fazem\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota vzduchu v\u00a0budouc\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu 2021\u20132050 o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1\u2008\u00b0C vzhledem k\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9mu pr\u016fm\u011bru 1981\u20132010. Nejv\u00edce se bude oteplovat v\u00a0zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (o\u00a01,2\u2008\u00b0C), nejm\u00e9n\u011b pak v\u00a0jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (o\u00a00,8\u2008\u00b0C). Ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu 2071\u20132099 ukazuj\u00ed modely zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty o\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,7\u2008\u00b0C v\u016f\u010di sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu obdob\u00ed. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed oteplen\u00ed vykazuj\u00ed zimn\u00ed (o\u00a03,1\u2008\u00b0C) a\u00a0letn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce (o\u00a03\u2008\u00b0C). V\u00a0podzimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch je n\u00e1r\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b o\u00a02,7\u2008\u00b0C, v\u00a0jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch je n\u00e1r\u016fst nejmen\u0161\u00ed o\u00a02,2\u2008\u00b0C. Zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty k\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9mu obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny na obr.\u00a01.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Zm\u011bny v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9m ro\u010dn\u00edm sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9m \u00fahrnu nejsou v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 ani pro jeden budouc\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont, v\u00a0obou p\u0159\u00edpadech je zm\u011bna do + 7\u00a0%. Pro d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont 2021\u20132050 vych\u00e1z\u00ed jarn\u00ed a\u00a0letn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 beze zm\u011bny, zimn\u00ed a\u00a0podzimn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce vykazuj\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst od 6 do 11\u00a0% vzhledem k\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9mu horizontu 1981\u20132010. Pro vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modelov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 je typick\u00fd vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek b\u011bhem zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f (13\u201325\u00a0%), kter\u00fd vyva\u017euje pokles b\u011bhem letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f (7\u201314\u00a0%). Zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny na obr.\u00a02<\/span><\/span><\/em>.<\/p>\n Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed odtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka se v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00fdch horizontech 2021\u20132050 a\u00a02071\u20132099<\/span> t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezm\u011bn\u00ed, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zm\u011bny jsou do 5\u00a0%. Pro sezonn\u00ed zm\u011bny je typick\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky b\u011bhem zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, pro bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed Zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance jsou podrobn\u011bji pops\u00e1ny a\u00a0uvedeny v\u00a0periodick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b k\u00a0projektu [12].<\/p>\n Na z\u00e1klad\u011b modelov\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bn hydrologick\u00e9 bilance se potvrdilo, \u017ee postup klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny se Karlovarsk\u00e9mu kraji v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nevyh\u00fdb\u00e1. Charakter prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch a\u00a0modelovan\u00fdch zm\u011bn hydrologick\u00e9 bilance v\u00a0Karlovarsk\u00e9m kraji je srovnateln\u00fd se zm\u011bnami prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmi v\u00a0m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku cel\u00e9 \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. Vliv vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch teplot vzduchu v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu cel\u00e9ho roku spolu se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdmi sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdmi \u00fahrny b\u011bhem zimy zvy\u0161uje odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky vodn\u00edch tok\u016f a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 zvy\u0161uje \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar b\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed. To m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek nedostate\u010dnou akumulaci vody ve sn\u011bhov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvce, kter\u00e1 by se b\u011bhem postupn\u00e9ho jarn\u00edho t\u00e1n\u00ed vsakovala do kolektor\u016f podzemn\u00edch vod. Dostate\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby podzemn\u00edch vod jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro dotov\u00e1n\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch tok\u016f z\u00e1kladn\u00edm odtokem b\u011bhem p\u0159elomu l\u00e9ta a\u00a0podzimu (srpen, z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed), kdy je m\u00e9n\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b del\u0161\u00edch bezde\u0161tn\u00fdch obdob\u00ed, jako tomu bylo nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0roce 2015, se dostupnost vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f o\u00a0to zhor\u0161uje.<\/p>\n Popsan\u00e9 zm\u011bny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed probl\u00e9my s\u00a0nedostate\u010dn\u00fdm zabezpe\u010den\u00edm vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f v\u00a0oblasti Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje. \u0158e\u0161en\u00fd projekt Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f ve vybran\u00fdch oblastech Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje si klade za c\u00edl identifikovat konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed lokality ohro\u017een\u00e9 nedostatkem vody a\u00a0navrhnout \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 adapta\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed pro boj s\u00a0nedostatkem vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f na t\u011bchto lokalit\u00e1ch. Projekt je \u0159e\u0161en ve spolupr\u00e1ci V\u00daV TGM,\u00a0v.\u00a0v.\u00a0i., a\u00a0Povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e,\u00a0s.\u00a0p., s\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm term\u00ednem dokon\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2018.<\/p>\n \u010cl\u00e1nek vznikl na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fdzkumu prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9ho v\u00a0r\u00e1mci projektu Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dostupnosti vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f ve vybran\u00fdch oblastech Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje (QJ1520318), kter\u00fd je financov\u00e1n Ministerstvem zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed \u010cR v\u00a0r\u00e1mci programu KUS. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e zm\u011bny klimatu byly vytvo\u0159eny v\u00a0r\u00e1mci projektu TA02020320, kter\u00fd byl spolufinancov\u00e1n Technologickou agenturou \u010cR.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In the Karlovy Vary district, areas with lack of drinking and industrial water were identified. Since 2015, in cooperation of TGM WRI, p. r. i., and state enterprise Povod\u00ed Oh\u0159e a project called \u201eIncreasing water resources availability in selected regions of Karlovy Vary district\u201c is financed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2464,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[83,96,106,583],"coauthors":[124,34,551],"class_list":["post-2521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-bilan-model","tag-climate-change","tag-hydrological-balance","tag-water-resources-availability"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2521"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30356,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521\/revisions\/30356"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2521"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=2521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Model Bilan<\/h3>\n
Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny<\/h3>\n
Tabulka 2. P\u0159ehled simulac\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f (RCM)
\nTable 2. Regional climate model simulations (RCM)<\/h5>\n<\/a>\nV\u00fdsledky<\/h2>\n
Pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed<\/h3>\n
Budouc\u00ed zm\u011bny v\u00a0hydrologick\u00e9 bilanci<\/h3>\n
Teplota<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nObr.\u00a01. Absolutn\u00ed zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty vzduchu v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 od sou\u010dasnosti 1981\u20132010; DJF\u00a0\u2013 prosinec, leden, \u00fanor, MAM\u00a0\u2013 b\u0159ezen, duben, kv\u011bten, JJA\u00a0\u2013 \u010derven, \u010dervenec, srpen, SON\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen, listopad
\nFig. 1. Absolute changes in mean air temperature in the scenario period 2071\u20132099 (with respect to 1981\u20132010); DJF\u00a0\u2013 December, January, February, MAM\u00a0\u2013 March, May, June, JJA\u00a0\u2013 June, July, August, SON\u00a0\u2013 September, October, November<\/h6>\nSr\u00e1\u017eky<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nObr.\u00a02. Relativn\u00ed zm\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 od sou\u010dasnosti 1981\u20132010; DJF\u00a0\u2013 prosinec, leden, \u00fanor, MAM\u00a0\u2013 b\u0159ezen, duben, kv\u011bten, JJA\u00a0\u2013 \u010derven, \u010dervenec, srpen, SON\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen, listopad
\nFig. 2. Relative changes in mean precipitation in the scenario period 2071\u20132099 (with respect to 1981\u20132010); DJF\u00a0\u2013 December, January, February, MAM\u00a0\u2013 March, May, June, JJA\u00a0\u2013 June, July, August, SON\u00a0\u2013 September, October, November<\/h6>\nOdtokov\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka<\/h4>\n
\n<\/span>2021\u20132050<\/span> do 24\u00a0%, pro vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd horizont do 32\u00a0%. V\u00a0ostatn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky, b\u011bhem letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a\u017e o\u00a030\u00a0%. Zm\u011bny odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky v\u00a0budouc\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny na obr.\u00a03<\/span><\/span><\/em>. Pro zm\u011bny z\u00e1kladn\u00edho odtoku na povod\u00ed je typick\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd \u00fabytek b\u011bhem letn\u00edch a\u00a0tak\u00e9 podzimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nObr.\u00a03. Relativn\u00ed zm\u011bny odtokov\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2071\u20132099 od sou\u010dasnosti 1981\u20132010; DJF\u00a0\u2013 prosinec, leden, \u00fanor, MAM\u00a0\u2013 b\u0159ezen, duben, kv\u011bten, JJA\u00a0\u2013 \u010derven, \u010dervenec, srpen, SON\u00a0\u2013 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u0159\u00edjen, listopad
\nFig. 3. Relative changes in mean runoff in the scenario period 2071\u20132099 (with respect to 1981\u20132010); DJF\u00a0\u2013 December, January, February, MAM\u00a0\u2013 March, May, June, JJA\u00a0\u2013 June, July, August, SON\u00a0\u2013 September, October, November<\/h6>\nZ\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n
Tabulka 3. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 a\u00a0hydrologick\u00e9 charakteristiky d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch povod\u00ed Karlovarsk\u00e9ho kraje; drobn\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mezi sr\u00e1\u017ekami a\u00a0sou\u010dtem \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu s\u00a0celkov\u00fdm odtokem jsou zp\u016fsobeny zm\u011bnou z\u00e1sob podzemn\u00ed vody
\nTable 3. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of Karlovy Vary district catchments<\/h5>\n<\/a>\nPod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n