{"id":15461,"date":"2022-07-12T16:11:03","date_gmt":"2022-07-12T15:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=15461"},"modified":"2022-07-12T16:11:03","modified_gmt":"2022-07-12T15:11:03","slug":"extreme-multi-annual-hydrological-droughts-in-the-elbe-river-basin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2022\/07\/extreme-multi-annual-hydrological-droughts-in-the-elbe-river-basin\/","title":{"rendered":"Extreme multi-annual hydrological droughts in the Elbe river basin"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><i class=\"fa fa-exclamation-circle fa-3x pull-left\"><\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Souhrn<\/h2>\n<p>P\u0159edm\u011btem studie bylo zhodnocen\u00ed v\u00edcelet\u00fdch obdob\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha na povod\u00ed Labe v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b (plocha povod\u00ed 51 104 km<sup>2<\/sup>). Pro vodom\u011brnou stanici v\u00a0tomto profilu je k\u00a0dispozici \u0159ada pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016ftok\u016f z\u00a0let 1851\u20132020. Pro toto obdob\u00ed jsme z\u00a0n\u011bkolika datov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f sestavili \u0159ady pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot na plo\u0161e povod\u00ed. Z\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch \u0159ad byly vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ky sr\u00e1\u017eek, ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ky odtoku a\u00a0rozd\u00edly ro\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fd\u0161ek sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtok\u016f. Pro tyto veli\u010diny byly vypo\u010dteny dlouhodob\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry a\u00a0regresn\u00ed line\u00e1rn\u00ed trendy pro zm\u011bnu v\u00a0\u010dase; u\u00a0v\u0161ech t\u0159\u00ed veli\u010din jsou velmi m\u00edrn\u011b vzestupn\u00e9, podstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je zejm\u00e9na dlouhodob\u00e9 kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek. Podle vy\u010d\u00edslen\u00fdch v\u00edcelet\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch pr\u016ftok\u016f a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017eek jsme vyhledali a\u00a0slou\u010dili p\u0159\u00edpady, ze\u00a0kter\u00fdch se generuje jedno souvisl\u00e9 sucho o\u00a0trv\u00e1n\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u011b p\u011bti let pro sr\u00e1\u017eky i\u00a0pro odtoky. Pro jednotliv\u00e9 periody sucha jsme vypo\u010d\u00edtali nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy. Jako mezn\u00ed pr\u016ftok byl zvolen dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd pr\u016ftok. Hydrologick\u00e9 sucho 2013\u20132020 m\u011blo nejdel\u0161\u00ed trv\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sedm let\u00a0\u2013 ze v\u0161ech obdob\u00ed sucha od roku 1851 a\u00a0tak\u00e9 se vyzna\u010duje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm celkov\u00fdm nedostatkov\u00fdm objemem. P\u0159i posouzen\u00ed podle pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho ro\u010dn\u00edho nedostatkov\u00e9ho objemu je a\u017e \u010dtvrt\u00e9 v\u00a0po\u0159ad\u00ed. P\u0159i porovn\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fdch pr\u016fb\u011bh\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016ftok\u016f se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpady z\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch obdob\u00ed maj\u00ed podobn\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00davod<\/h2>\n<p>V\u00a0publikaci [1] byla podrobn\u011b zpracov\u00e1na problematika hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, v\u010detn\u011b v\u00fdpo\u010dtu nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f od roku 1851 na Labi v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b. Toto zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo zam\u011b\u0159eno na hydrologick\u00e1 sucha, p\u0159i kter\u00fdch byl podkro\u010den pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016ftok s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed 95 %, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 sucha trvaj\u00edc\u00ed n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Publikace [2] mapuje v\u00fdskyt za posledn\u00edch 500 let a\u00a0z\u00a0toho podrobn\u011bji zpracovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed od roku 1961 do sou\u010dasnosti. Po v\u00fdskytu hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha v\u00a0roce 2015, zhodnocen\u00e9ho ve studii [3], byla z\u00a0podn\u011btu Povod\u00ed Vltavy, s. p., v\u00a0pr\u00e1ci [4] podle rekonstrukce historick\u00e9 \u0159ady pr\u016ftok\u016f k\u00a0profilu vodom\u011brn\u00e9 stanice Kam\u00fdk od roku 1890 do roku 2011 zhodnocena hydrologick\u00e1 sucha v\u00a0povod\u00ed Vltavsk\u00e9 kask\u00e1dy. Obdob\u00ed sucha 2014\u20132018 bylo p\u0159edm\u011btem refer\u00e1t\u016f semin\u00e1\u0159e, viz [5]. Poznatky o\u00a0v\u00fdskytu extr\u00e9mn\u00edch n\u00edzk\u00fdch vodn\u00edch stav\u016f na Labi v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1919\u20132015 zve\u0159ejnil Elleder [6].<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159edkl\u00e1dan\u00e1 studie se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 hydrologick\u00fdmi suchy v\u00a0letech 1851\u20132020 na Labi v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b, jejich\u017e trv\u00e1n\u00ed je n\u011bkolik let, tak\u017ee jsou charakterizov\u00e1na v\u00fdskytem minim\u00e1ln\u00edch n\u011bkolikalet\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch odtok\u016f. Podn\u011btem k\u00a0jej\u00edmu zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo dlouhodob\u00e9 sucho, je\u017e za\u010dalo v\u00a0roce 2013 a\u00a0skon\u010dilo v\u00a0roce 2020. C\u00edlem pr\u00e1ce bylo porovnat toto hydrologick\u00e9 sucho se srovnateln\u00fdmi historick\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady a\u00a0uk\u00e1zat na jeho podobnosti a\u00a0odli\u0161nosti i\u00a0v\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku jsou term\u00edny sr\u00e1\u017eky, odtok, v\u00fdpar a\u00a0evapotranspirace pou\u017eity ve v\u00fdznamu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek vody na povod\u00ed v\u00a0mm.<\/p>\n<h2>Metodika<\/h2>\n<h3>Data<\/h3>\n<p>Datov\u00e9 soubory sr\u00e1\u017eek, pr\u016ftok\u016f Labe v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b a\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot vzduchu na povod\u00ed Labe po D\u011b\u010d\u00edn byly p\u0159evzaty z\u00a0podklad\u016f sestaven\u00fdch p\u0159i zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nku [7]. Tato data byla dopln\u011bna, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b i\u00a0podle podklad\u016f dostupn\u00fdch v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b vym\u011bn\u011bna. P\u0159id\u00e1ny byly sr\u00e1\u017eky, teploty vzduchu i\u00a0pr\u016ftoky do roku 2020. V\u00fdm\u011bna prob\u011bhla u\u00a0pr\u016ftok\u016f pro obdob\u00ed od roku 1980 za dnes platn\u00e9 odovlivn\u011bn\u00e9, tj. pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016ftok\u016f byla o\u010di\u0161t\u011bna o\u00a0manipulace n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed, odb\u011bry a\u00a0vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odpadn\u00edch vod. Pro l\u00e9ta 1954\u20131979, kdy pr\u016ftoky ji\u017e byly ovlivn\u011bny manipulacemi Vltavsk\u00e9 kask\u00e1dy a\u00a0odovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 pr\u016ftoky nejsou zpracov\u00e1ny, byla pou\u017eita data ze zpr\u00e1vy [4] a\u00a0posouzena m\u00edra ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed pr\u016ftok\u016f Vltavy v\u00a0profilu Zbraslav.<\/p>\n<p>\u0158ady m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch hodnot od hydrologick\u00e9ho roku 1851 do roku 2020 obsahuj\u00ed data za 170 let. V\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed studie skon\u010dilo hydrologick\u00e9 sucho, kter\u00e9 za\u010dalo koncem roku 2013. Pro jeho zhodnocen\u00ed byly \u0159ady pr\u016ftok\u016f, sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0teplot vzduchu dopln\u011bny o\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u011b dostupn\u00e1 data, je\u017e nemusej\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b odpov\u00eddat budouc\u00edmu definitivn\u00edmu vyhodnocen\u00ed. Pro posouzen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 prom\u011bnlivosti sr\u00e1\u017eek byla pou\u017eita i\u00a0data z\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1801\u20131850. Sr\u00e1\u017eky jsou odhadnuty podle pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00a0Klementina, od roku 1829 dopln\u011bn\u00e9 o\u00a0pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0Havl\u00ed\u010dkov\u011b Brod\u011b a\u00a0od roku 1848 v\u00a0\u010c\u00e1slavi. Spolehlivost odhadu sr\u00e1\u017eek je tedy mal\u00e1 a\u017e do roku 1876. Od t\u00e9 doby jsou k\u00a0dispozici data z\u00a055 stanic a\u00a0od roku 1880 z\u00a0382 sr\u00e1\u017ekom\u011brn\u00fdch stanic.<\/p>\n<p>Pro porovn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f v\u00edcelet\u00fdch obdob\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha byly pou\u017eity zejm\u00e9na jejich trv\u00e1n\u00ed, celkov\u00e9 nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy. Nedostatkov\u00e9 objemy byly vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny jako sou\u010det rozd\u00edl\u016f pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edho odtoku a odtoku v dan\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci za cel\u00e9 obdob\u00ed sucha; m\u011bs\u00edce, kdy odtok byl v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, se nezapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h3>Dlouhodob\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry a\u00a0trendy<\/h3>\n<p>Z\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch \u0159ad byly vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ky sr\u00e1\u017eek, ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161ky odtoku a\u00a0rozd\u00edly ro\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fd\u0161ek sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtok\u016f. Pro tyto veli\u010diny byly vypo\u010dteny dlouhodob\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry a\u00a0regresn\u00ed line\u00e1rn\u00ed trendy pro zm\u011bnu v\u00a0\u010dase v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1851\u20132020\u00a0(<em>tab. 1).<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>V\u00fdznamn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady v\u00edcelet\u00e9ho sucha<\/h3>\n<p>Identifikace v\u00fdskyt\u016f sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch a\u00a0odtokov\u00fdch v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f v\u00edcelet\u00e9ho sucha byla provedena n\u00e1sledovn\u011b:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Byly vypo\u010dteny pr\u016fm\u011bry z\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fd\u0161ek odtoku a\u00a0z\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fd\u0161ek sr\u00e1\u017eek pro periodu pr\u016fm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed jeden rok a\u017e \u0161est let z\u00a0cel\u00fdch \u0159ad 1851\u20132020. Hodnoty v\u00a0\u0161esti souborech zpr\u016fm\u011brovan\u00fdch odtok\u016f a\u00a0zpr\u016fm\u011brovan\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek byly set\u0159\u00edd\u011bny od nejmen\u0161\u00ed po nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed. N\u00e1sledn\u011b k\u00a0nim byl p\u0159i\u0159azen rok, kter\u00fd ud\u00e1v\u00e1 konec intervalu pr\u016fm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0po\u0159ad\u00ed v\u00a0set\u0159\u00edd\u011bn\u00e9m souboru.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00e1le byl vyhled\u00e1n p\u0159ibli\u017en\u00fd \u010dasov\u00fd rozsah nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch v\u00edcelet\u00fdch obdob\u00ed sucha. Z\u00a0tabulky set\u0159\u00edd\u011bn\u00fdch 20 minim\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00edcelet\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch pr\u016ftok\u016f a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017eek byly vyhled\u00e1ny a\u00a0slou\u010deny p\u0159\u00edpady, z\u00a0nich\u017e se generuje jedno souvisl\u00e9 sucho o\u00a0trv\u00e1n\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u011b p\u011bt let pro sr\u00e1\u017eky i\u00a0pro odtoky. Byly tak z\u00edsk\u00e1ny letopo\u010dty po\u010d\u00e1tk\u016f a\u00a0konc\u016f epizod sucha (<em>obr.\u00a01<\/em>).<\/li>\n<li>Detailn\u011bji byly epizody hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha vymezeny tak, \u017ee za\u010d\u00e1tek obdob\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edpadu sucha byl p\u0159isouzen \u00a0m\u011bs\u00edci, kdy na dlouhou n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed dobu odtoky poklesly pod dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd odtok 15,74 mm\/m\u011bs\u00edc, vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd z cel\u00e9 \u0159ady 1851\u20132020. Inverzn\u00ed podm\u00ednka byla pou\u017eita pro stanoven\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce ukon\u010den\u00ed sucha. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o v\u00edcelet\u00e1 obdob\u00ed sucha, jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 \u00faseky obvykle dlouh\u00e9 jeden a\u017e dva m\u011bs\u00edce, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce, ve kter\u00fdch odtok byl v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e porovn\u00e1vac\u00ed hodnota pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho pr\u016ftoku, za sou\u010d\u00e1st pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho sucha.<\/li>\n<li>Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed such\u00fdch obdob\u00ed bylo provedeno dle velikosti nedostatkov\u00e9ho objemu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>V\u00fdsledky a\u00a0diskuze<\/h2>\n<p>Dlouhodob\u00e9 trendy v\u0161ech t\u0159\u00ed veli\u010din z\u00a0<em>tab. 1<\/em> jsou vzestupn\u00e9 a\u00a0statisticky nev\u00fdznamn\u00e9. P\u0159i p\u0159epo\u010dtu na pr\u016fm\u011bry za celou d\u00e9lku \u0159ad jsou v\u00a0rozmez\u00ed 2,8 % a\u017e 8,2\u00a0%. Sou\u010det zv\u011bt\u0161en\u00ed u\u00a0odtoku a\u00a0u\u00a0rozd\u00edlu odtoku a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u00a0absolutn\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch je o\u00a02 mm\/rok v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e zv\u011bt\u0161en\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek.<\/p>\n<p>V\u0161echny t\u0159i veli\u010diny kol\u00edsaj\u00ed nejen meziro\u010dn\u011b, ale i\u00a0dlouhodob\u011b, co\u017e ukazuje pr\u016fb\u011bh desetilet\u00fdch klouzav\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f na <em>obr.\u00a02.<\/em> Sr\u00e1\u017eky maj\u00ed v\u00a0obdob\u00ed cca 1871\u20131977 pr\u016fb\u011bh vlny s\u00a0postupn\u00fdm vzestupem a\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm poklesem, kter\u00fd v\u0161ak nen\u00ed tak hlubok\u00fd, jako byl v\u00a0\u00a0desetilet\u00edch kolem roku 1871. Na pr\u016fb\u011bhu sr\u00e1\u017eek je tendence k\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9 periodicit\u011b patrn\u00e1 i\u00a0v\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm obdob\u00ed. V\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b odtok\u016f je od obdob\u00ed minim kolem roku 1953 patrn\u00fd vzestup, od roku 1988 pokles, jen\u017e neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 pr\u016fb\u011bhu sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0lze jej p\u0159isoudit intenzivn\u00edmu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed teplot vzduchu. Rozd\u00edl sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku, kter\u00fd lze pova\u017eovat za \u00fazemn\u00ed v\u00fdpar, se od desetilet\u00ed kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edho rokem 1991 zv\u011bt\u0161uje.<\/p>\n<p>Re\u017eim v\u00fdskytu v\u00edcelet\u00fdch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b i\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edch a\u00a0v\u00edcelet\u00fdch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch odtok\u016f tedy v\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku zna\u010dn\u011b kol\u00eds\u00e1 <em>(obr.\u00a02).<\/em> Pouze v\u00a0 letech 1930\u20131935 se vymezen\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtok\u016f neshoduj\u00ed. V\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed se vyskytla v\u00a0pou\u017eit\u00e9m v\u00fdb\u011bru jen jedna dvoulet\u00e1 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eka a\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u0161estilet\u00e1 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eka. Odtokov\u00e1 minima z\u00a0tohoto obdob\u00ed byla zp\u016fsobena sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdm minimem jenom t\u0159\u00edlet\u00e9ho trv\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159i pou\u017eit\u00e9m postupu v\u00fdb\u011bru nezobraz\u00ed. <em>Obr.<\/em>\u00a0<em>2<\/em> dokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00a0obdob\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch 22let\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek sr\u00e1\u017eek se v\u00edcelet\u00e9 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eky nevyskytly. Pro pr\u016fm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed byl pou\u017eit interval 22 let, jen\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 periodicit\u011b, kter\u00e1 byla nalezena v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b pou\u017eit\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek i\u00a0v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b pr\u016ftok\u016f Vltavy, viz [8].<\/p>\n<h5><em>Tab. 1. Dlouhodob\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry a\u00a0trendy sr\u00e1\u017eek, odtok\u016f a\u00a0jejich rozd\u00edl\u016f<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Tab. 1. Long-term averages and trends of precipitation, runoff and their differences<\/em><\/h5>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"134\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12141 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-1-300x50.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-1-768x129.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/134;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"597\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12144 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-1-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-1-768x573.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/597;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a01. 22let\u00e9 klouzav\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry sr\u00e1\u017eek (tmav\u011b modr\u00e1) a\u00a0odtok\u016f (zelen\u011b). P\u0159ibli\u017en\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 vymezen\u00ed v\u00fdskytu v\u00edcelet\u00fdch minim\u00e1ln\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek (\u010derven\u011b) a\u00a0odtok\u016f (mod\u0159e)<br \/>\nFig. 1. 22-year moving averages of precipitation (dark blue) and runoff (green). Approximate time determination of multi-annual minimum precipitation (red) and runoff (blue)<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"393\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12146 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-2-300x147.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-2-768x377.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/393;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a02. Desetilet\u00e9 klouzav\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry ro\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fd\u0161ek sr\u00e1\u017eek (mod\u0159e), odtok\u016f (\u010derven\u011b) a\u00a0rozd\u00edl\u016f sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtok\u016f (zelen\u011b) pro povod\u00ed Labe v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b 1805\u20132019<br \/>\nFig. 2<em>.<\/em> Ten-year moving averages of annual precipitation (blue), runoff (red) and differences in precipitation and runoff (green) in the Elbe basin in D\u011b\u010d\u00edn (1805\u20132019)<\/h6>\n<h5><em>Tab. 2. Charakteristiky trv\u00e1n\u00ed a nedostatkov\u00fdch objem\u016f v\u00edcelet\u00fdch obdob\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9ho such<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Tab. 2. Characteristics of duration and deficit volumes of multi-annual hydrological droughts<\/em><\/h5>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"286\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12148 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-2-300x107.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-2-768x275.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/286;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>Z\u00a0\u00fadaj\u016f <em>tab. 2<\/em> a\u00a0<em>obr.\u00a03<\/em> a\u00a0<em>4 <\/em>vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee hydrologick\u00e9 sucho 2013\u20132020 m\u011blo nejdel\u0161\u00ed trv\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sedm let\u00a0\u2013 ze v\u0161ech obdob\u00ed sucha od roku 1851 a\u00a0tak\u00e9 se vyzna\u010duje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm celkov\u00fdm nedostatkov\u00fdm objemem. P\u0159i posouzen\u00ed podle pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho ro\u010dn\u00edho nedostatkov\u00e9ho objemu je ale a\u017e \u010dtvrt\u00e9 v\u00a0po\u0159ad\u00ed. Mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou d\u00e9lku trv\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011blo i\u00a0v\u00edcelet\u00e9 sucho 1948\u20131954, jeho pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed nedostatkov\u00fd objem je v\u0161ak z\u00a0posuzovan\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f nejmen\u0161\u00ed. Pro periody sucha 1962\u20131964 a\u00a01971\u20131974, vyhodnocen\u00e9 podle pr\u016ftok\u016f neo\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch o\u00a0ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed, jsme podle dat ze studie [5] posoudili vliv Vltavsk\u00e9 kask\u00e1dy na pr\u016ftoky Vltavy. Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee v\u00a0obou uveden\u00fdch obdob\u00edch se nadlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016ftok\u016f uskute\u010dnilo jen v\u00a0r\u00e1mci sezonn\u00edho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed. Pr\u016fm\u011bry pr\u016ftok\u016f za cel\u00e1 obdob\u00ed sucha tedy nebyly znateln\u011b ovlivn\u011bny. Jeliko\u017e manipulace Vltavsk\u00e9 kask\u00e1dy jsou i\u00a0pro pr\u016ftoky Labe v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ovlivn\u011bn\u00edm, ponechali jsme v\u00fdsledky hodnocen\u00ed pro uveden\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady sucha nezm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Na <em>obr.\u00a05<\/em> a\u00a0<em>6<\/em> jsou vyneseny pr\u016fb\u011bhy m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fd\u0161ek odtoku v rozsahu let s v\u00fdskytem sucha, kter\u00e9 jsou si navz\u00e1jem n\u00e1padn\u011b podobn\u00e9. U period 1948\u20131954 a 2013\u20132020 je to o to zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee jsou od sebe zna\u010dn\u011b vzd\u00e1leny. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed vlastnost\u00ed je periodick\u00e9 kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed zv\u011bt\u0161en\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed odtoku v zimn\u00edch a jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. Sucho p\u0159i n\u00e1mi zvolen\u00e9m vymezen\u00ed jeho za\u010d\u00e1tku za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 obvykle v obdob\u00ed od dubna do \u010dervence, nej\u010dast\u011bji kon\u010d\u00ed v \u0159\u00edjnu a listopadu.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00edcelet\u00e1 sucha maj\u00ed podobn\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh v\u00a0po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm a\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dvou letech. Na rozmez\u00ed t\u0159et\u00edho a\u00a0\u010dtvrt\u00e9ho roku se obvykle odtok zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed tak, \u017ee sucho skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"306\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12151 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-3-300x115.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-3-768x294.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/306;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a03. Trv\u00e1n\u00ed sucha v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (vlevo) a\u00a0celkov\u00fd nedostatkov\u00fd objem v\u00a0obdob\u00ed sucha v\u00a0mm (vpravo)<br \/>\nFig. 3<em>.<\/em> Drought duration in months (left) and total deficit volume in drought periods in mm (right)<\/h6>\n<h6><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-4.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"489\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12153 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-4.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-4-300x183.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-4-768x469.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/489;\" \/><\/a><\/h6>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a04<em>.<\/em> Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed nedostatkov\u00fd objem v\u00a0mm<br \/>\nFig. 4<em>.<\/em> Average annual deficit volume in mm<\/h6>\n<h6><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-5.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"484\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12155 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-5.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-5-300x182.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-5-768x465.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/484;\" \/><\/a><\/h6>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a05. Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bhu odtoku u\u00a0period sucha 1962\u20131964 a\u00a01971\u20131974<br \/>\nFig. 5<em>.<\/em> Comparison of runoff patterns during drought periods 1962\u20131964 and 1971\u20131974<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-6.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"426\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12157 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-6.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-6.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-6-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-6-768x409.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/426;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a06. Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bhu odtoku u\u00a0period sucha 1948\u20131954 a\u00a02013\u20132020<br \/>\nFig. 6. Comparison of runoff patterns during drought periods 1948\u20131954 and 2013\u20132020<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-7.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"322\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12159 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-7.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-7-300x121.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-7-768x309.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/322;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a07. Vztah potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace (PET) a\u00a0teploty vzduchu (vlevo) a\u00a0vztah \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu (sr\u00e1\u017eka\u00a0\u2013 odtok) a\u00a0PET<br \/>\nFig. 7. Relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and air temperature (left) and relationship between evapotranspiration (precipitation \u2013 runoff) and PET (right)<\/h6>\n<h5><em>Tab. 3. Charakteristiky hydrologick\u00e9 bilance v\u00a0obdob\u00edch v\u00edcelet\u00e9ho sucha\u00a0\u2013 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty<br \/>\n<\/em><em>Tab. 3. Characteristics of the hydrological balance in periods of multi-annual drought\u00a0\u2013 average annual values <\/em><\/h5>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"327\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12161 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-3-300x123.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-tabulka-3-768x314.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/327;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>Po p\u00e1t\u00e9m roce pokra\u010dovalo sucho jen v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1948\u20131954 a\u00a02013\u20132020, v\u00a0obou p\u0159\u00edpadech jsou v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech vid\u011bt kr\u00e1tk\u00e9, ale v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzestupy odtoku nad pr\u016fm\u011brnou prahovou mez.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dadaje z\u00a0<em>tab. 3<\/em> jsou zpracov\u00e1ny ve form\u011b korela\u010dn\u00edch graf\u016f na <em>obr.\u00a07<\/em> a\u00a0<em>8.<\/em> Z\u00a0graf\u016f je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vzr\u016fst\u00e1 s\u00a0teplotou, ale vztah rozd\u00edlu sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku (co\u017e je bilan\u010dn\u00ed odhad \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu) k\u00a0potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspiraci je velmi voln\u00fd. Rozd\u00edl sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku je dominantn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd na velikosti sr\u00e1\u017eek. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed sucha, krom\u011b zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, je pro v\u00fdpar dostatek energie, tak\u017ee je omezov\u00e1n zejm\u00e9na velikost\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-8.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-15461];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"537\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12163 alignnone lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-8.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-8.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-8-300x201.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/Kasparek-8-768x516.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/537;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr.\u00a08. Vztah \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017eky<br \/>\nFig. 8. Relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation<\/h6>\n<h2>Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n<p>Ze zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdskytu p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b pr\u016ftok\u016f Labe v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b a\u00a0sr\u00e1\u017eek i\u00a0teplot v\u00a0povod\u00ed Labe v\u00a0D\u011b\u010d\u00edn\u011b z\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1851\u20132020 vyplynuly n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed poznatky:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>V\u00fdznamn\u00e1 v\u00edcelet\u00e1 hydrologick\u00e1 sucha o\u00a0trv\u00e1n\u00ed p\u011bt a\u00a0v\u00edce let se vyskytla v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1861\u20131876 a\u00a0pak a\u017e v\u00a0obdob\u00ed 1932\u20132020, co\u017e souvis\u00ed s\u00a0dlouhodob\u00fdm kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00edm pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek v\u00a0povod\u00ed. V\u00fdskyty hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed obdob\u00edm, v\u00a0nich\u017e byly minim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00edcelet\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry sr\u00e1\u017eek.<\/li>\n<li>P\u0159i set\u0159\u00edd\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f hydrologick\u00e9ho sucha podle trv\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00a0dat vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee hydrologick\u00e9 sucho 2013\u20132020 bylo nejdel\u0161\u00ed ze v\u0161ech obdob\u00ed sucha od roku 1851. Trvalo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sedm let a\u00a0tak\u00e9 se vyzna\u010duje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm celkov\u00fdm nedostatkov\u00fdm objemem (pod dlouhodob\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm pr\u016ftokem). P\u0159i posouzen\u00ed podle pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho ro\u010dn\u00edho nedostatkov\u00e9ho objemu je v\u0161ak a\u017e na \u010dtvrt\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b.<\/li>\n<li>V\u00a0obdob\u00ed sucha potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace vzr\u016fst\u00e1 s\u00a0teplotou, ale vztah rozd\u00edlu sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku (co\u017e je bilan\u010dn\u00ed odhad \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu) k\u00a0potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspiraci je velmi voln\u00fd. Rozd\u00edl sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0odtoku je dominantn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd na velikosti sr\u00e1\u017eek. V\u00a0obdob\u00ed sucha, krom\u011b zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, je vlivem vysok\u00fdch teplot vzduchu pro v\u00fdpar dostatek energie. V\u00fdpar je proto omezen v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b mno\u017estv\u00edm spadl\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek, bez nich\u017e u\u017e nen\u00ed, co by se vypa\u0159ilo.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n<p><em>Vznik \u010dl\u00e1nku byl podpo\u0159en intern\u00edm grantem V\u00daV TGM 3600.52.28-2020.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek pro\u0161el lektorsk\u00fdm \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The aim of the study was the evaluation of multi-year hydrological droughts in the Elbe river basin for the D\u011b\u010d\u00edn stream gauging station (catchment area 51 104  m2). Average monthly flows from period 1851\u20132000 are available for the station. For this period, we also compiled a series of average monthly precipitation and temperatures from several data sources. We calculated annual values for precipitation, temperatures and differences in annual precipitation and runoff, then we computed long-term averages and regression linear trends for change over time. The trends are only slightly upward for all three variables, but long-term fluctuations in precipitation are more significant. According to the quantified multi-year average flows and precipitation, we searched for and merged cases from which one continuous drought lasting at least 5 years is generated for both precipitation and runoff. We quantified deficit volumes for individual drought periods. The long-term average flow was chosen as the threshold flow. The hydrological drought 2013\u20132020 had the longest duration, almost 7 years, of all droughts since 1851 and was also characterized by the largest total deficit volume. When compared to the average annual deficit volume, it is only in fourth place. When comparing the time series of monthly flows, it turned out that cases from different periods have similar patterns and behavior.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91,2,86],"tags":[871,1062,2804,2803],"coauthors":[35,29],"class_list":["post-15461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-applied-ecology","category-from-the-world-of-water-management","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-deficit-volume","tag-elbe","tag-extremes","tag-multi-annual-hydrological-drought"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15461"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15461\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15486,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15461\/revisions\/15486"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15461"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=15461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}