{"id":11887,"date":"2021-04-19T09:54:33","date_gmt":"2021-04-19T08:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/?p=11887"},"modified":"2024-07-17T11:49:27","modified_gmt":"2024-07-17T10:49:27","slug":"prediction-model-of-water-quality-around-prague","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2021\/04\/prediction-model-of-water-quality-around-prague\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction model of water quality around Prague"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><i class=\"fa fa-exclamation-circle fa-3x pull-left\"><\/i> This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author.<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Souhrn<\/h2>\n<p>V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se velmi diskutuje \u2013 a to nejen mezi odbornou ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed \u2013 o dopadech zm\u011bny klimatu na vodn\u00ed re\u017eim v p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed krajin\u011b. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed OP Praha \u2013 p\u00f3l r\u016fstu se zam\u011b\u0159ilo i na krajinu kulturn\u00ed v bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed bl\u00edzkosti m\u011bsta Prahy, kde prob\u00edhal monitoring klimatologick\u00fdch veli\u010din, pr\u016ftok\u016f a kvality vody na osmi pilotn\u00edch lokalit\u00e1ch (povod\u00edch), jen\u017e zapo\u010dal v dubnu 2018 a kon\u010dil v kv\u011btnu 2020. Anal\u00fdza chemick\u00e9ho slo\u017een\u00ed vody pra\u017esk\u00fdch potok\u016f byla prov\u00e1d\u011bna Zku\u0161ebn\u00ed laborato\u0159\u00ed technologi\u00ed a slo\u017eek \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed V\u00daV TGM, v. v. i. Ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho odtokov\u00e9ho re\u017eimu bylo simulov\u00e1no prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm modelu BILAN, kter\u00fd je na V\u00daV TGM, v. v. i., dlouhodob\u011b vyv\u00edjen.<\/p>\n<p>Vybran\u00e9 ukazatele byly vyhodnoceny a staly se podkladem pro simula\u010dn\u00ed model jakosti vody v z\u00e1vislosti na sr\u00e1\u017ekoodtokov\u00fdch charakteristik\u00e1ch se zohledn\u011bn\u00edm sezonnosti. Koncentrace byly odvozeny na z\u00e1klad\u011b regresn\u00edch vztah\u016f mezi aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm pr\u016ftokem a koncentrac\u00ed zvolen\u00e9 kvalitativn\u00ed veli\u010diny. Vznikl tak simula\u010dn\u00ed model, jen\u017e je voln\u011b k dispozici v mapov\u00e9 aplikaci na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch projektu heis.vuv.cz\/projekty\/praha-adaptacniopatreni. V\u00fdsledky monitoringu jsou pak dostupn\u00e9 v r\u00e1mci interaktivn\u00ed prohl\u00ed\u017ee\u010dky nebo na geoport\u00e1lu vznikl\u00e9m v r\u00e1mci \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed (popis je v \u010dl\u00e1nku Strouhal a kol. tohoto \u010d\u00edsla).<\/p>\n<h2>\u00davod<\/h2>\n<p>Zm\u011bna klimatu a stav krajiny maj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv na vodn\u00ed re\u017eim nejen v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice, ale v\u0161ude na Zemi. Posledn\u00ed roky uk\u00e1zaly, jak velk\u00e1 je setrva\u010dnost cel\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu a kolob\u011bhu vody a jak\u00e9 dopady mohou m\u00edt zm\u011bny nejen na vodn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. Na posun po\u010d\u00e1tku vegeta\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed teplot a nerovnom\u011brnou distribuci sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f upozor\u0148uje odborn\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 let. Je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdskyt extr\u00e9mn\u00edch hydrologick\u00fdch jev\u016f (hydrologick\u00e9 sucho \u2013 nedostatek vody, povodn\u011b) s sebou p\u0159inesou tak\u00e9 zm\u011bny kvalitativn\u00ed. Pro odhad t\u011bchto zm\u011bn byl vyvinut jednoduch\u00fd robustn\u00ed model, navazuj\u00edc\u00ed na model hydrologick\u00e9 bilance BILAN, kter\u00fd je nen\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd na vstupn\u00ed data (sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny a teploty vzduchu). V\u00fdhodou tohoto modelu je nejen predikce aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch odtok\u016f a koncentrac\u00ed na osm t\u00fddn\u016f dop\u0159edu, ale tak\u00e9 mo\u017enost simulace dopad\u016f klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny dle jednotliv\u00fdch v\u00fdstup\u016f z glob\u00e1ln\u00edch\/region\u00e1ln\u00edch cirkula\u010dn\u00edch model\u016f.<\/p>\n<h2>Pozorovan\u00e1 data a z\u00e1jmov\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed<\/h2>\n<p>Sledov\u00e1n\u00ed chemick\u00e9ho slo\u017een\u00ed povrchov\u00e9 vody pra\u017esk\u00fdch potok\u016f prov\u00e1d\u011bla Zku\u0161ebn\u00ed laborato\u0159 technologi\u00ed a slo\u017eek \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed V\u00daV TGM, v. v. i. Monitoring byl zapo\u010dat v dubnu 2018 a ukon\u010den v kv\u011btnu 2020, trval tedy v\u00edce ne\u017e dva roky. Odb\u011bry byly realizov\u00e1ny na dev\u00edti vybran\u00fdch profilech, je\u017e jsou zobrazeny na obr. 1 (oran\u017eov\u00e9 polygony se z\u00e1v\u011brn\u00fdm profilem) a nach\u00e1zej\u00ed se v \u00fazemn\u00edm prstenci zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed okrajov\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Prahy pod\u00e9l hranic hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta se St\u0159edo\u010desk\u00fdm krajem. Prstenec byl vytvo\u0159en s vyu\u017eit\u00edm hranic povod\u00ed 4. \u0159\u00e1du (p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b jejich \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed), je tedy dob\u0159e hydrologicky definov\u00e1n z hlediska odtokov\u00fdch pom\u011br\u016f. Hranice z\u00e1jmov\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed jsou stanoveny tak, aby neobsahovaly historick\u00e1 zastav\u011bn\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed Prahy, ale naopak zahrnovaly \u00fazem\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Prahy, kde v posledn\u00edch des\u00edtk\u00e1ch let doch\u00e1z\u00ed k nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m ve vyu\u017eit\u00ed krajiny a s t\u00edm souvisej\u00edc\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m odtokov\u00fdch pom\u011br\u016f. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b anal\u00fdzy bylo vybr\u00e1no celkem \u0161est pilotn\u00edch povod\u00ed tak, aby v\u00fdsledky zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch zm\u011bn odtokov\u00fdch pom\u011br\u016f vlivem zm\u011bn vyu\u017eit\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed byly dob\u0159e generalizovateln\u00e9 na cel\u00e9 z\u00e1jmov\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed prstence. Jedn\u00e1 se o:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>A. Kopaninsk\u00fd potok<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\u2013 povod\u00ed reprezentuje vodn\u00ed pom\u011bry na severoz\u00e1pad\u011b Prahy ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 denuda\u010dn\u00edmi zbytky k\u0159\u00eddov\u00fdch sediment\u016f (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odtok), povod\u00ed je poznamen\u00e1no existenc\u00ed leti\u0161t\u011b.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>B. Motolsk\u00fd potok<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\u2013 povod\u00ed reprezentuje pom\u011bry z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Prahy ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 denuda\u010dn\u00edmi zbytky k\u0159\u00eddov\u00fdch sediment\u016f, povod\u00ed je siln\u011b antropogenn\u011b pozm\u011bn\u011bno v posledn\u00edch 100 letech mohutnou v\u00fdstavbou.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>C. Dalejsk\u00fd potok<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\u2013 povod\u00ed je charakterizov\u00e1no v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy ochrany p\u0159\u00edrody (Prokopsk\u00e9 \u00fadol\u00ed, geologick\u00fd charakter utv\u00e1\u0159en svrchnopaleozoick\u00fdmi v\u00e1penci), v horn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech povod\u00ed ale od 60. let prob\u00edhala masivn\u00ed v\u00fdstavba.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>D. Lipansk\u00fd potok<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\u2013 reprezentuje odtokov\u00e9 pom\u011bry soutokov\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed Vltavy a Berounky v ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Prahy. Geologicky jde o prost\u0159ed\u00ed kvart\u00e9rn\u00edch fluvi\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0161t\u011brkop\u00edskov\u00fdch n\u00e1plav\u016f. Jde o \u00fazem\u00ed s relativn\u011b mal\u00fdmi dopady z\u00e1stavby na vyu\u017eit\u00ed krajiny.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>E. Drahansk\u00fd potok<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\u2013 povod\u00ed bylo vybr\u00e1no s ohledem na doposud zachovan\u00fd p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed voln\u00fd a p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed charakter \u00fazem\u00ed (pole, lesy, louky) a relativn\u011b malou zastav\u011bnost.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>F. Vino\u0159sk\u00fd potok<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\u2013 ukazuje odtokov\u00e9 pom\u011bry ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Prahy, specifikem je jeho odtok z Prahy do St\u0159edo\u010desk\u00e9ho kraje (p\u0159\u00edtok Labe). Povod\u00ed je poznamen\u00e1no v\u00fdznamnou z\u00e1stavbou v r\u016fzn\u00fdch historick\u00fdch obdob\u00edch (leti\u0161t\u011b Kbely), v\u010detn\u011b mohutn\u00e9ho dne\u0161n\u00edho rozvoje (katastry Kbel, Satalic, Vino\u0159e), zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed je zde i golfov\u00e9 h\u0159i\u0161t\u011b.<\/ul>\n<p>Bodov\u00e9 vzorky v pilotn\u00edch lokalit\u00e1ch byly odeb\u00edr\u00e1ny dvakr\u00e1t m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch profilech nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 realizovat monitoring v pln\u00e9m rozsahu z technick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f \u2013 stavebn\u00edch \u00faprav koryta toku nebo nedostatku vody v obdob\u00ed sucha (nap\u0159. profil Lipansk\u00fd potok).<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i odb\u011bru vzork\u016f byly v ter\u00e9nu stanoveny z\u00e1kladn\u00ed fyzik\u00e1ln\u011b-chemick\u00e9 ukazatele: teplota vody (T), teplota vzduchu (Tvz), pH, elektrick\u00e1 konduktivita (\u03ba) (viz obr. 2). V laborato\u0159i pak byly v odebran\u00fdch vzorc\u00edch stanovov\u00e1ny tyto ukazatele:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>hydrogenuhli\u010ditany (HCO3-)<\/li>\n<li>kyselinov\u00e1 neutraliza\u010dn\u00ed kapacita (KNK4,5)<\/li>\n<li>biochemick\u00e1 spot\u0159eba kysl\u00edku (BSK5)<\/li>\n<li>chemick\u00e1 spot\u0159eba kysl\u00edku dichromanem (CHSKCr)<\/li>\n<li>chloridy (Cl-)<\/li>\n<li>s\u00edrany (SO42-)<\/li>\n<li>amonn\u00e9 ionty (NH4+)<\/li>\n<li>amoniak\u00e1ln\u00ed dus\u00edk (N-NH4+)<\/li>\n<li>dusi\u010dnany (NO3-)<\/li>\n<li>dusi\u010dnanov\u00fd dus\u00edk (N-NO3-)<\/li>\n<li>nerozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 l\u00e1tky (NL)<\/li>\n<li>celkov\u00fd fosfor (Pcelk.)<\/li>\n<li>sod\u00edk (Na)<\/li>\n<li>drasl\u00edk (K)<\/li>\n<li>v\u00e1pn\u00edk (Ca)<\/li>\n<li>ho\u0159\u010d\u00edk (Mg)<\/li>\n<li>\u017eelezo (Fe)<\/li>\n<li>mangan (Mn)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>V\u0161echny postupy pou\u017eit\u00e9 pro anal\u00fdzy i odb\u011bry povrchov\u00e9 vody vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z platn\u00fdch norem a jsou akreditov\u00e1ny u \u010cesk\u00e9ho institutu pro akreditaci a posouzeny st\u0159ediskem posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed laborato\u0159\u00ed ASLAB.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"561\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11706 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-1-300x210.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-1-768x539.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/561;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 1. Profily odb\u011bru povrchov\u00fdch vod z pra\u017esk\u00fdch potok\u016f pro sledov\u00e1n\u00ed kvality\u2028a kvantity vody<br \/>\nFig. 1. Location for water abstractions for qualitive and quantitave water monitoring<\/h6>\n<p>Na pilotn\u00edch lokalit\u00e1ch byly vybudov\u00e1ny m\u011brn\u00e9 stanice pro m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016ftok\u016f (obr. 1). Z\u00e1rove\u0148 byla postavena sr\u00e1\u017ekom\u011brn\u00e1 stanice v povod\u00ed Lipansk\u00e9ho potoka. V\u011bt\u0161ina stanic je osazena d\u00e1lkov\u00fdm p\u0159enosem, kter\u00fd ka\u017ed\u00fd den odes\u00edl\u00e1 pomoc\u00ed GSM sign\u00e1lu nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 data (v\u00fd\u0161ku hladiny, teploty, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny).<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"821\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11708 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-2-292x300.jpg 292w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-2-768x788.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/821;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 2. Ter\u00e9nn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed elektrick\u00e9 konduktivity a pH<br \/>\nFig. 2. On site monitoing of electrical conductivity and pH<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-3.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"919\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11710 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-3-261x300.jpg 261w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-3-768x882.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/919;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 2. Ter\u00e9nn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed elektrick\u00e9 konduktivity a pH<br \/>\nFig. 2. On site monitoing of electrical conductivity and pH<\/h6>\n<p>Uk\u00e1zka pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016ftok\u016f je na obr. 3. Jde o doln\u00ed profil Motolsk\u00e9ho potoka pod Motolsk\u00fdmi rybn\u00edky. Pr\u016ftok je m\u011b\u0159en nep\u0159\u00edmo pomoc\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny tlakom\u011brnou sondou p\u0159ed m\u011brn\u00fdmi p\u016flkruhov\u00fdmi p\u0159elivy um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdmi v koryt\u011b toku. Vlastn\u00ed p\u0159elivy jsou ukotveny v polyetylenov\u00e9 desce um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e9 do koryta prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00faheln\u00edk\u016f a vrut\u016f. T\u011bsn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159elivu je zaji\u0161t\u011bno pomoc\u00ed geotextilie na p\u0159elivu i p\u0159ed n\u00edm. Motolsk\u00fd potok n\u00e1sledn\u011b pokra\u010duje jeden kilometr po povrchu a pot\u00e9 je zatrubn\u011bn\u00fd pod povrchem a\u017e do jeho \u00fast\u00ed do Vltavy.<\/p>\n<h2>Simula\u010dn\u00ed model<\/h2>\n<p>Simula\u010dn\u00ed model je zalo\u017een na propojen\u00ed modelu hydrologick\u00e9 bilance Bilan a koncentra\u010dn\u00edho modelu pro jednotliv\u00e9 l\u00e1tky a pozorovan\u00e9 profily a lokality. Jeho c\u00edlem je podat obraz o v\u00fdvoji koncentrac\u00ed l\u00e1tek uveden\u00fdch v tab. 1 v Praze a okol\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b modelov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016ftok\u016f modelem Bilan s n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm odvozen\u00edm koncentrac\u00ed pro jednotliv\u00e9 l\u00e1tky. Postup prac\u00ed je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>1. kalibrace modelu hydrologick\u00e9 bilance Bilan (nebyl v r\u00e1mci projektu vyv\u00edjen) na pozorovan\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad\u00e1ch (odtok, teplota vzduchu a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny), z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed kalibra\u010dn\u00edch parametr\u016f modelu pro jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>2. odvozen\u00ed regresn\u00edch vztah\u016f mezi koncentrac\u00ed d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch l\u00e1tek a pr\u016ftokem<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>3. implementace t\u011bchto vztah\u016f do koncentra\u010dn\u00edho modelu<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>4. tvorba webov\u00e9ho rozhran\u00ed<\/ul>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-4.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"765\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11712 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-4.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-4-300x287.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-4-768x734.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/765;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 4. Sch\u00e9ma simula\u010dn\u00edho modelu<br \/>\nFig. 4. Scheme of simulating model<\/h6>\n<p>Pro zvolen\u00e9 profily jsou odvozena hydrologick\u00e1 povod\u00ed, pro n\u011b\u017e jsou modelov\u00e1ny veli\u010diny hydrologick\u00e9 bilance a n\u00e1sledn\u011b jsou v t\u011bchto profilech odvozeny pr\u016ftoky na z\u00e1klad\u011b dostupn\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch dat.<\/p>\n<h5>Tab. 1. P\u0159ehled pozorovan\u00fdch a hodnocen\u00fdch l\u00e1tek<br \/>\nTab. 1. Overview of observed and evaluated substances<\/h5>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"765\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11726 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-1-300x287.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-1-768x734.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/765;\" \/><\/a>\n<h2>Model Bilan<\/h2>\n<p>Model Bilan [1], [2] simuluje pro dan\u00e9 povod\u00ed slo\u017eky hydrologick\u00e9 bilance. Struktura modelu je d\u00e1na vztahy, kter\u00e9 popisuj\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed principy hydrologick\u00e9 bilance na povrchu, v p\u016fdn\u00ed z\u00f3n\u011b, je\u017e je ovlivn\u011bna vegeta\u010dn\u00edm pokryvem, a v z\u00f3n\u011b podzemn\u00ed vody. Pro stanoven\u00ed energetick\u00e9 bilance, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 na slo\u017eky hydrologick\u00e9 bilance v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv, slou\u017e\u00ed teplota vzduchu. \u010casov\u00e9 rozli\u0161en\u00ed modelu pro varovn\u00fd simula\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je jeden t\u00fdden.<\/p>\n<p>Vstupn\u00edmi daty pro v\u00fdpo\u010det hydrologick\u00e9 bilance jsou \u0159ady sr\u00e1\u017eek na povod\u00ed a teploty vzduchu. Ke kalibraci parametr\u016f modelu jsou pozorov\u00e1ny \u0159ady odtoku a dlouhodob\u00e9 charakteristiky odtoku, jako je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd pr\u016ftok a doln\u00ed pr\u016ftokov\u00e9 kvantily. Model simuluje \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady t\u00fddenn\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed evapotranspirace, \u00fazemn\u00edho v\u00fdparu, infiltrace do p\u016fdy a dotace podzemn\u00ed vody z p\u016fdy do podzemn\u00edch vod. V\u0161echny tyto hydrologick\u00e9 veli\u010diny se vztahuj\u00ed k cel\u00e9mu povod\u00ed. Celkov\u00fd odtok se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze t\u0159\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed, jimi\u017e jsou p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd, hypodermick\u00fd a z\u00e1kladn\u00ed odtok. Model m\u00e1 osm voln\u00fdch parametr\u016f a k jejich kalibraci na pozorovan\u00fdch povod\u00edch pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 optimaliza\u010dn\u00ed algoritmus. Sch\u00e9ma modelu Bilan je zn\u00e1zorn\u011bno na obr. 5 a podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed informace lze nal\u00e9zt na webu https:\/\/bilan.vuv.cz.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-5.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"1289\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11714 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-5.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-5-186x300.jpg 186w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-5-636x1024.jpg 636w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-5-768x1237.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/1289;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 5. Sch\u00e9ma modelu Bilan<br \/>\nFig. 5. Scheme of Bilan model<\/h6>\n<h2>Koncentra\u010dn\u00ed model<\/h2>\n<p>Koncentra\u010dn\u00ed model je zalo\u017een na z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sm\u011b\u0161ovac\u00ed rovnici:<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-vzorec-1.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"160\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11730 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-vzorec-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-vzorec-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-vzorec-1-300x60.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-vzorec-1-768x154.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/160;\" \/><\/a>\n<p>kde:<br \/>\nc je koncentrace<br \/>\nm hmotnost<br \/>\nV objem<br \/>\nQ pr\u016ftok<\/p>\n<p>Pomoc\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti koncentrace c a pr\u016ftoku Q v ka\u017ed\u00e9m hodnot\u00edc\u00edm profilu jsou odvozeny vztahy pro jednotliv\u00e9 l\u00e1tky pomoc\u00ed regresn\u00edch model\u016f I. a\u017e III. \u0159\u00e1du. Odvozen\u00e9 vztahy pro jednotliv\u00e9 profily a l\u00e1tky byly dopln\u011bny do koncentra\u010dn\u00edho modelu. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto vztah\u016f je mo\u017en\u00e9 simulovat koncentrace l\u00e1tek, je\u017e byly v projektu analyzov\u00e1ny. Pro lep\u0161\u00ed reprezentativnost by byl vhodn\u00fd del\u0161\u00ed monitoring na v\u0161ech lokalit\u00e1ch, tak aby byly k dispozici i epizodn\u00ed situace, nap\u0159\u00edklad obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch pr\u016ftok\u016f. C\u00edlem bylo vytvo\u0159en\u00ed n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed upozornit na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd probl\u00e9m v dan\u00e9m povod\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2>Predikce a webov\u00e1 prohl\u00ed\u017ee\u010dka<\/h2>\n<p>Pomoc\u00ed odvozen\u00fdch parametr\u016f hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu Bilan je mo\u017en\u00e9 simulovat pr\u016ftoky v t\u00fddenn\u00edm kroku po zad\u00e1n\u00ed teplot vzduchu a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f na osm t\u00fddn\u016f dop\u0159edu. Hodnoty klimatick\u00fdch veli\u010din mohou b\u00fdt zad\u00e1ny pro vybran\u00e9 povod\u00ed (profil):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ru\u010dn\u011b: vypln\u00ed se na z\u00e1klad\u011b odborn\u00e9ho odhadu nebo aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch predikc\u00ed,<\/li>\n<li>automaticky: do modelu jsou automaticky dopln\u011bny pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodnoty\u2028pro jednotliv\u00e9 t\u00fddny ve v\u00fdhledu osmi t\u00fddn\u016f pro zvolen\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Po simulaci pr\u016ftok\u016f modelem Bilan jsou odvozeny predikovan\u00e9 koncentrace jednotliv\u00fdch l\u00e1tek na z\u00e1klad\u011b zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch regresn\u00edch vztah\u016f (koncentra\u010dn\u00ed model). N\u00e1sledn\u011b je vyhodnoceno, zda koncentrace p\u0159esahuj\u00ed mez detekovatelnosti, \u010di na tuto hranici nedosahuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdsledky samotn\u00e9ho varovn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu jsou prezentov\u00e1ny pomoc\u00ed webov\u00e9 aplikace. Ta je tvo\u0159ena v programovac\u00edm jazyce R prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm bal\u00ed\u010dku umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edho tvorbu interaktivn\u00edch webov\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed Shiny. K\u00f3d je koncipov\u00e1n jako R Markdown dokument s v\u00fdstupn\u00edm form\u00e1tem flexdashboard, co\u017e je bal\u00ed\u010dek slou\u017e\u00edc\u00ed k integraci aplikace do jednotn\u00e9ho zobrazen\u00ed (tzv. dashboardu). Interaktivn\u00ed prvky aplikace jsou tvo\u0159eny bali\u010dky, zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi integraci open source JavaScript knihoven do R. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o leaflet pro tvorbu map, dygraphs pro tvorbu graf\u016f \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad a rhandsontable pro interaktivn\u00ed tabulkov\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy. Pro manipulaci s daty na pozad\u00ed aplikace je pou\u017eit bal\u00ed\u010dek dplyr a pro pr\u00e1ci s datumy bal\u00ed\u010dek lubridate, oba jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed tidyverse \u2013 souboru open source bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f, navr\u017een\u00fdch se spole\u010dn\u00fdm API, filozofi\u00ed, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed gramatikou a strukturou dat. K modelov\u00e1n\u00ed odtoku byl vyu\u017eit model hydrologick\u00e9 bilance reprezentovan\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dkem bilan. K odhadu samotn\u00e9ho modelu a tvorb\u011b predikc\u00ed byly pou\u017eity n\u00e1stroje ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edho bal\u00ed\u010dku stats. N\u00edzk\u00fd po\u010det bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f, a tedy dependencies aplikace, umo\u017e\u0148uje jej\u00ed snadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed udr\u017eitelnost a provoz. V aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm stavu je aplikace ur\u010dena pro R verze 3.6.1 (2019-07-05). Verze jednotliv\u00fdch bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f jsou uvedeny v tab. 2.<\/p>\n<h5>Tab. 2. Seznam R bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f pou\u017eit\u00fdch v aplikaci<br \/>\nTab. 2. List of used R-packages<\/h5>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-2.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"513\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11728 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-2.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-2-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-tabulka-2-768x492.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/513;\" \/><\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-6.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"520\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11716 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-6.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-6.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-6-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-6-768x499.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/520;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 6. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed aplikace (v okn\u011b 3 jsou zobrazeny pozorovan\u00e9 hodnoty pH)<br \/>\nFig. 6. Aplication window (window 3 showing values of pH)<\/h6>\n<p>Na obr. 6 je zobrazeno z\u00e1kladn\u00ed okno aplikace, je\u017e je rozd\u011bleno do \u010dty\u0159 \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>1. Mapov\u00e9 okno, zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed lokalizaci jednotliv\u00fdch profil\u016f\/povod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je interaktivn\u00ed. Po kliknut\u00ed na dan\u00fd profil\/povod\u00ed se v ostatn\u00edch oknech aplikace zobraz\u00ed v\u00fdsledky pro zvolen\u00fd profil\/povod\u00ed.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>2. Okno zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed pozorovan\u00e9 hodnoty koncentrac\u00ed pro zvolenou l\u00e1tku a profil\/povod\u00ed.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>3. Okno, je\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje v\u00fdb\u011br l\u00e1tky, profilu\/povod\u00ed a zad\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch hodnot teplot vzduchu a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f nebo volbu datumu, pro kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 b\u00fdt provedena predikce. Zobrazovac\u00ed komponenta je interaktivn\u00ed a po p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed my\u0161\u00ed zobraz\u00ed hodnoty.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>______________________________<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>4. Okno zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed predikovan\u00e9 hodnoty koncentrac\u00ed pro zvolenou l\u00e1tku a profil\/povod\u00ed.<\/ul>\n<p>Samotn\u00e9 zobrazen\u00ed v\u00fdsled\u016f v aplikaci je p\u0159\u00edpustn\u00e9 i bez p\u0159ihl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed se do n\u00ed. V r\u00e1mci aplikace je k dispozici manu\u00e1l, jen\u017e obsahuje metodick\u00fd popis a informace o jednotliv\u00fdch modelovan\u00fdch lokalit\u00e1ch a povod\u00edch. Pomoc\u00ed rolovac\u00edho menu lze pro d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed oblast vybrat jednotliv\u00fd profil\/povod\u00ed. Tuto volbu lze tak\u00e9 prov\u00e9st v mapov\u00e9m okn\u011b, kter\u00e9 disponuje standardn\u00ed funkcionalitou. Po zvolen\u00ed profilu\/povod\u00ed a vybran\u00e9 l\u00e1tky se v prav\u00e9m horn\u00edm rohu zobraz\u00ed pozorovan\u00e9 hodnoty koncentrac\u00ed. Limitn\u00ed hodnoty (mez detekovatelnosti) jsou v okn\u011b zobrazeny pomoc\u00ed \u010d\u00edseln\u00e9ho \u00fadaje.<\/p>\n<p>V r\u00e1mci aplikace lze prov\u00e1d\u011bt predikce koncentrac\u00ed zvolen\u00e9 l\u00e1tky na osm t\u00fddn\u016f dop\u0159edu. Je mo\u017en\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edt dlouhodob\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011bry teplot vzduchu a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se vypln\u00ed tabulka dlouhodob\u00fdmi pr\u016fm\u011bry za obdob\u00ed 1981\u20132010 teplot vzduchu (T) a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f (P). Pot\u00e9 se automaticky vypo\u010dtou pr\u016ftoky\/odtoky (R) a n\u00e1sledn\u011b koncentrace pro danou l\u00e1tku. Hodnoty koncentrac\u00ed se objev\u00ed v tabulce v \u010d\u00edseln\u00e9 form\u011b ve sloupci cons. Hodnoty 1\u20138 ozna\u010duj\u00ed 1. a\u017e 8. t\u00fdden od zvolen\u00e9ho data. Pr\u016fb\u011bh predikovan\u00fdch hodnot se d\u00e1le zobraz\u00ed v grafu Predikce a profily\/povod\u00ed se obarv\u00ed \u010dervenou, \u010di modrou barvou. \u010cerven\u00e1 zna\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee se hodnoty pohybuj\u00ed nad hranic\u00ed detekovatelnosti, modr\u00e1, \u017ee jsou pod touto limitn\u00ed hodnotou. Dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je zadat teploty vzduchu a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f do tabulky ru\u010dn\u011b, nap\u0159. na z\u00e1klad\u011b hydrometeorologick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.<\/p>\n<h2>V\u00fdsledky a diskuze<\/h2>\n<p>Na plochu povod\u00ed byla na z\u00e1klad\u011b re\u00e1ln\u011b m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch dat vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na modelov\u00e1 data za obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132017 v denn\u00edm kroku pro sr\u00e1\u017eky a teploty. Obr. 7 ukazuje z\u00e1kladn\u00ed statistick\u00e9 porovn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u0159\u00ed po sob\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch obdob\u00ed v agregovan\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch, z nich\u017e je patrn\u00fd postup klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn, a to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm u teplot vzduchu. Klimatologick\u00e9 veli\u010diny byly na povod\u00ed vyhodnoceny pro t\u0159i \u010dasov\u00e1 obdob\u00ed (1961\u20131990, 1991\u20132005 a 2006\u20132017) a jsou zn\u00e1zorn\u011bny formou boxplot\u016f na obr. 7 a 8. Jednotliv\u00e1 obdob\u00ed jsou od sebe barevn\u011b odli\u0161ena. Na obr. 7 lze vid\u011bt, \u017ee z pohledu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch \u00fahrn\u016f bylo prost\u0159edn\u00ed hodnocen\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1991\u20132005 sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u011b sp\u00ed\u0161e nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 a sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil zp\u011bt podm\u00ednk\u00e1m v prvn\u00edm obdob\u00ed 1961\u20131990.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-7.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"394\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11718 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-7.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-7-300x148.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-7-768x378.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/394;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 7. Motolsk\u00fd potok \u2013 sr\u00e1\u017eky a teploty vzduchu<br \/>\nFig. 7. Motols creek \u2013 precipitation and air temperature<\/h6>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-8.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"394\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11720 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-8.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-8.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-8-300x148.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-8-768x378.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/394;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 8. Motolsk\u00fd potok \u2013 hodnocen\u00ed v\u00fdznamnosti trend\u016f zm\u011bn sr\u00e1\u017eek a teplot v jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch<br \/>\nFig. 8. Motols creek \u2013 evaluation of the significance of trends in changes in precipitation and temperature<\/h6>\n<p>Statistick\u00e1 signifikantnost trendu m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f a teplot vzduchu za cel\u00e9 obdob\u00ed 1961\u20132019 byla posouzena Mann-Kendalov\u00fdm testem. V\u00fdsledky jsou zobrazeny na obr. 8. Lze pozorovat statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst teploty s vysokou hladinou v\u00fdznamnosti p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch na po\u010d\u00e1tku vegeta\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, kdy naopak sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 \u00fahrny maj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e klesaj\u00edc\u00ed, a\u010d statisticky m\u00e1lo v\u00fdznamnou tendenci.<br \/>\nNa obr. 9 jsou jako p\u0159\u00edklad zobrazeny pozorovan\u00e9 koncentrace fosforu pro jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed. Lze pozorovat v\u00fdznamn\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi povod\u00edmi.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-9.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"394\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11722 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-9.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-9.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-9-300x148.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-9-768x378.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/394;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 9. Koncentrace fosforu pro jednotliv\u00e1 povod\u00ed<br \/>\nFig. 9. Phosphorus concentrations for individual river basins<\/h6>\n<p>Na obr. 10 je zn\u00e1zorn\u011bna predikce pro osm t\u00fddn\u016f, pokud by n\u00e1sledovaly pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hydroklimatick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Zobrazen je profil\/povod\u00ed Kopaninsk\u00fd potok \u2013 doln\u00ed stanice (zv\u00fdrazn\u011bn i v mapov\u00e9m podkladu) a l\u00e1tka Diclofenac. V r\u00e1mci predikce lze pozorovat, \u017ee se koncentrace na po\u010d\u00e1tku pohybuj\u00ed t\u011bsn\u011b nad mez\u00ed detekovatelnosti, n\u00e1sledn\u011b pod tuto hranici klesnou a na konci obdob\u00ed se op\u011bt nad tuto hranici dostanou. Hodnoty se pro zvolen\u00fd profil\/povod\u00ed pohybuj\u00ed nad zvolenou mez\u00ed, v mapov\u00e9 komponent\u011b je v\u0161ak z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v jin\u00fdch povod\u00edch tomu tak nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-10.jpg\" rel=\"shadowbox[sbpost-11887];player=img;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"413\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11724 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-10.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-10.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-10-300x155.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Vizina-10-768x396.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 800px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 800\/413;\" \/><\/a>\n<h6>Obr. 10. V\u00fdsledky predikce pro zvolenou l\u00e1tku (chemick\u00e1 spot\u0159eba kysl\u00edku dichromanem v mg\/l) a povod\u00ed Kopaninsk\u00e9ho potoka<br \/>\nFig. 10. Prediction results for the selected substance (chemical oxygen demand with dichromate mg\/l) and the Kopaninsk\u00fd stream basin<\/h6>\n<p>Pro podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prezentaci pozorovan\u00fdch (monitorovan\u00fdch) hodnot koncentrac\u00ed l\u00e1tek, pr\u016ftok\u016f, teploty vody a konduktivity byla vzhledem k velk\u00e9mu mno\u017estv\u00ed dat vytvo\u0159ena interaktivn\u00ed prohl\u00ed\u017ee\u010dka v prost\u0159ed\u00ed R Shiny. Funkcionalita prohl\u00ed\u017ee\u010dky je zalo\u017eena na aplikaci simula\u010dn\u00ed model, kter\u00e1 vznikla v r\u00e1mci \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed projektu. Po p\u0159ihl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed do prohl\u00ed\u017ee\u010dky lze zvolit, zda chceme zobrazit v\u00fdsledky pro oblast.<br \/>\nN\u00e1sledn\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e9 vybrat jednu z l\u00e1tek, je\u017e byly vyhodnoceny. V samotn\u00e9 prohl\u00ed\u017ee\u010dce je mo\u017en\u00e9 vybrat najednou a\u017e 10 l\u00e1tek (pr\u016ftoky, teplota vody, konduktivita) tak, aby je bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 mezi sebou porovn\u00e1vat \u010di nap\u0159\u00edklad vizu\u00e1ln\u011b hodnotit z\u00e1vislost koncentrace na pr\u016ftoku. Grafick\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy jde exportovat ve form\u00e1tu *.png.<\/p>\n<h2>Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n<p>Pro oblast okol\u00ed Prahy byl vytvo\u0159en simula\u010dn\u00ed model, jen\u017e predikuje odtokov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161ky (pr\u016ftoky) a koncentrace vybran\u00fdch l\u00e1tek na osm t\u00fddn\u016f dop\u0159edu na z\u00e1klad\u011b (i) ru\u010dn\u011b zadan\u00fdch hodnot teplot vzduchu a sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f nebo (ii) pomoc\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fdch pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f klimatick\u00fdch veli\u010din. Koncentrace jsou modelov\u00e1ny na z\u00e1klad\u011b kombinace p\u0159edpov\u011bdi pr\u016ftok\u016f pomoc\u00ed hydrologick\u00e9ho modelu Bilan a koncentra\u010dn\u00edho modelu. Pro jednotliv\u00e9 l\u00e1tky a pr\u016ftoky byly odvozeny regresn\u00ed vztahy I. a\u017e III. \u0159\u00e1du. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto vztah\u016f jsou pot\u00e9 dan\u00e9 koncentrace odhadnuty. Pro lep\u0161\u00ed vysti\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti by bylo vhodn\u00e9 v dan\u00fdch lokalit\u00e1ch l\u00e1tky d\u00e1le monitorovat a n\u00e1sledn\u011b tyto regresn\u00ed vztahy upravit tak, aby byly zachyceny r\u016fzn\u00e9 hydrologick\u00e9 situace a k nim odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed koncentrace jednotliv\u00fdch l\u00e1tek. Do budoucna by bylo vhodn\u00e9 model upravit pro v\u00fdpo\u010det v denn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m kroku. Model je uveden na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch projektu heis.vuv.cz\/projekty\/praha-adaptacniopatreni.<\/p>\n<h2>Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n<p><em>Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek byl p\u0159ipraven v r\u00e1mci projektu \u201eAnal\u00fdza adapta\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed dopad\u016f zm\u011bny klimatu a urbanizace na vodn\u00ed re\u017eim v oblasti vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Prahy\u201c, \u010d. CZ.07.1.02\/0.0\/0.0\/16-040\/0000380, financovan\u00e9ho z Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu Praha \u2013 p\u00f3l r\u016fstu \u010cR.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek pro\u0161el lektorsk\u00fdm \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Ilustra\u010dn\u00ed foto: Shutterstock<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This article is available in Czech only. For translation or more information on this topic, please contact author. &nbsp; Souhrn V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se velmi diskutuje \u2013 a to nejen mezi odbornou ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed \u2013 o dopadech zm\u011bny klimatu na vodn\u00ed re\u017eim v p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed krajin\u011b. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed OP Praha \u2013 p\u00f3l r\u016fstu se zam\u011b\u0159ilo i na krajinu&#8230;  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/2021\/04\/prediction-model-of-water-quality-around-prague\/\" class=\"more-link\" title=\"Read Prediction model of water quality around Prague\">Read more &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11889,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[2458,2450,2451,2459,301],"coauthors":[27,2446,239,1635],"class_list":["post-11887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydraulics-hydrology-and-hydrogeology","tag-discharges","tag-hydrology","tag-prague","tag-prediction","tag-water-quality"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11887"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11887\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30622,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11887\/revisions\/30622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11887"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtei.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=11887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}